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Nasdaq Gives Way in Mixed Session

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2010 Oct 07, 2010 - 05:21 AM GMT

By: Harry_Boxer


The stock market indices suffered losses today in the non-blue chip sectors as the Nasdaq 100 was down 18.11 at 2006.52. The S&P 500 ended up near-unchanged, down to 0.78 at 1159.97, and the Dow was up 22.93 at 10.967.65.

There was a distinct 3-wave decline today, as the indices dropped sharply in the morning, bounced mid-morning, and then dropped into early afternoon for the session lows near 1992 on the NDX and near 1155 on the SPX. At that point they worked their way back and took back some of the losses, but still ended up sloppy on the day.

Technicals bore that out, as there were 180 more decliners than advancers on the New York Stock Exchange. Up/down volume was 5 to 4 negative on New York on total volume of just 965 million shares today. The ratios were worse on Nasdaq, with advance-declines 3 to 2 negative and up/down volume about 2 to 1 negative on total volume of 2.1 billion shares.

Charts of the Day:

Today we review our Boxer Shorts, as many high-priced market leaders took it on the chin today, which may be a sign of an impending turn in the market.

Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT), a market darling and one of our Top 25 stocks, may be in the process of cracking here. It moved down last week, bounced mid-week this week, and today dropped 3.08, or 8%, on 2.5 million shares, the heaviest volume in more than two months. With the close right near lateral price support at the 50-day moving average, it could see a snapback, but next target is around 32 1/2-33 range. If that's broken, a major channel breaks, and we could get a move down toward the mid 20s, which is our eventual trading target.

F5 Networks, Inc. (FFIV) got hammered for 14 points today, from 109.80 down to 96.87, but even that was without the little opening gap. Net on the day it lost 12.48% on 7 1/2 million shares, which is heavy volume break to the downside. It took out the rising bottoms line over the last 3 1/2 months, and cracked the 21-day moving average. It's just above the 50-day, which it comes in at 93 1/2-94, and beneath that the target is around 85 and then 78 1/2.

Cree Inc. (CREE) has been heading downward ever since the early August smack. Over the last four weeks it's formed a kind of bear wedge or flag. The stock dropped 1.59 today, and if it cracks the channel bottom line here, we could see a quick hit down to the low- to mid-40s, our target for CREE.

Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Inc. (GMCR) got hammered earlier this week, formed a little bear flag in this range, and dropped 68 cents today. But a failure here could amount to a very quick hit down towards 25, my initial target. Secondary target down around 22.

Reviewing our Watchboard: board was mixed, but mostly lower. There were some outstanding gainers as well. TeleCommunication Systems Inc. (TSYS) jumped 1.15 to 4.88 today, one of the bigger percentage gainers. American Superconductor Corporation (AMSC) advanced 1.91 to 35.37. JA Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. (JASO) gained 65 to 8.95.

In addition, TPC Group Inc (TPCG), one of our Top 25 List members, was up 1.36 to 26.34, and another one on that list, Polypore International Inc. (PPO), was up 1.54 to 32.80.

Low-priced Alexco Resource Corporation (AXU) jumped 1.27 to 6.07, Polycom, Inc. (PLCM) 1.31 to 27.17, BioFuel Energy Corp. (BIOF) 43 cents to 2.83, and Patriot Coal Corporation (PCX) 76 cents to 13.25.

Other winners included Borders (BGP) up 31 cents to 1.58, and Broadwind Energy, Inc. (BWEN) 20 cents to 2.21.

In addition, Goldman Sachs (GS) gained 1.27 to 150.84, and Valassis Communications Inc. (VCI) jumped 88 cents to 35.02.

Other than that there were only fractional gainers on the board if they were up.

On the downside, Inc. (AMZN) lost 5.47 to 155.40, Acme Packet, Inc. (APKT) 3.08 to 34.90, Dendreon Corp. (DNDN) 2.29 to 38.93, Sourcefire, Inc. (FIRE) 2.24 to 26.66, Isilon Systems, Inc. (ISLN) 2.00 to 23.88, LogMeIn, Inc. (LOGM) 2.74 to 33.55, NetSuite Inc. (N) 2.43 to 21.46, and Radware Ltd. (RDWR) 2.73 to 31.80.

In addition, VirnetX Holding Corp (VHC) got hammered back from 20 to 15 today, closing at 15.99, down 2.56, a big negative reversal day there.

Stepping back and reviewing the hourly chart patterns, the indices dropped down in a 3-wave decline to mid-day, but then bounced back towards the end of the day, but still ended up mixed negative on the session. We'll see if today was a key day for the indices, but certainly with many of the market leaders in momentum stocks giving way today, it could be the beginning of a pullback starting here.

Good trading!


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Mr. Boxer's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Boxer's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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