Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Why Most Investors LOST Money by Investing in ARK FUNDS - 27th Jan 22
The “play-to-earn” trend taking the crypto world by storm - 27th Jan 22
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
WARNING - AI STOCK MARKET CRASH / BEAR SWITCH TRIGGERED! - 19th Jan 22
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

How Far Will Silver Fall? That Could Depend on the Stock Market

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Oct 27, 2010 - 05:28 AM GMT

By: Przemyslaw_Radomski

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleChina is the world’s largest producer of gold, but it has plenty of other precious metals and rare minerals as well. Some in the world are already worried about so much power concentrated in one place.

A Bloomberg Report this week stated that silver exports from China, one of the world's largest, may drop about 40 percent this year as domestic demand from industry and investors climbs. China is the third-largest producer after Peru and Mexico. It is expected that reduced exports will boost prices. Industrial applications for silver, including electrical conductors and batteries, represent about half global demand. Silver has rallied 44 percent this year, outperforming gold and copper.


In addition, China, which has been blocking shipments of crucial minerals to Japan for the last month, has also halted some shipments to the United States and Europe. These rare earth minerals are crucial to manufacturing many advanced products such as radar, cell phones, high-powered magnets and mini-hard drives in laptop computers. China’s control of them and its willingness to flex its economic muscles seem certain to further intensify trade and currency tensions. The bad news is China mines 95 percent of the world’s rare earth elements. If restriction on exports of these minerals continues, it could force multinational companies to produce more of their high-technology goods in China.
 
The U.S. Congress is considering legislation to provide loan guarantees for the re-establishment of rare earth mining and manufacturing in the United States. Still, it will take three to five years until these new mines reach full production.
 
China reduced in July its export quota for rare earths for the second half of the year by 72 percent. Exporters had only six weeks’ of quotas left when China imposed its unannounced embargo on shipments to Japan.

Speaking of metals with multiple industrial applications, in this week’s long-term chart for the SLV ETF (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.) we see that the recent rally appears to have been stopped at the $24-level.

Huge volume levels on upswings after a huge rally is a bearish signal. This was seen in recent days prior to the local top.

Last week, we stated that an RSI level of 55 would indicate a favorable buying opportunity. However, with the bearish sentiment currently in place for the general stock market and gold, the RSI alone is not sufficient to warrant such action. As stated many times in the past, silver’s trend frequently follows stocks due to its industrial uses and it follows gold due to its precious side. The trend of the general stock market must also be considered regardless of the indication gleaned from the RSI.

The week’s short-term chart shows that, as expected, silver reached a local top a short time after the turning point illustrated by the black vertical line in this week’s chart. The next turning point, a local bottom, seems to be about a month away. We expect this will be seen most likely in late November.

Silver’s decline could actually be greater than previously projected due to the fact that its recent rally exceeded expectation as well. Its reaction to other markets will likely determine the ultimate bottom for the current downswing. The general stock market trend in the coming weeks will have a significant impact upon how low silver’s price declines.

Summing up, silver’s price is likely to move higher eventually but numerous indications point towards price declines before we see any rallies in the future.

Having said that, let's move to the analysis of the precious metals mining stocks.

The XAU (gold and silver stocks index) Index failed to break into new highs - as visible on the very-long-term chart above. Although we see it presently at a declining support level, we don't expect this level to hold given declining gold, silver and stock prices.

Support levels such as the lower border of the trading channel, previous local tops, and multi-year support levels are also in play. The declining, short-term trend line has been broken recently most likely due to the USD Index rally. At this point the area around the 170 level appears to be the probable bottom for the current decline.

In this week’s HUI (gold mining stocks index) Index chart, support levels have been reached. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level and the 50-week moving average are in play. The decline has paused at medium-term support levels and is currently close to a declining support line. If gold’s price declines further and additionally stocks move lower, mining stock index levels will likely fall as well.

In a recent Market Alert sent to our Subscribers, we discussed the possibility for Traders to bet on lower prices using options. Lower prices in mining stocks may be the way to go due to their lower volatility. Their close trading range has caused a decline in option premiums.

In the research section of Sunshine Profits website, Predicting and Taking Advantage of Corrections in Gold is an essay, which is perfect for our current situation. Options traders should be sure not to miss this instructive piece.

Summing up, it is likely that mining stocks will eventually rally but we will probably first see a corrective period. Lower prices are likely to be seen in the short-run with a rally to follow perhaps before the end of the year.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to my free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, I urge you to sign up for my free e-mail list. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on my website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious PM Investors and Speculators. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

P. Radomski
Editor
Sunshine Profits

    Interested in increasing your profits in the PM sector? Want to know which stocks to buy? Would you like to improve your risk/reward ratio?

    Sunshine Profits provides professional support for precious metals Investors and Traders.

    Apart from weekly Premium Updates and quick Market Alerts, members of the Sunshine Profits’ Premium Service gain access to Charts, Tools and Key Principles sections. Click the following link to find out how many benefits this means to you. Naturally, you may browse the sample version and easily sing-up for a free trial to see if the Premium Service meets your expectations.

    All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Mr. Radomski and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Mr. Radomski and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above belong to Mr. Radomski or respective associates and are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. Mr. Radomski does not recommend services, products, business or investment in any company mentioned in any of his essays or reports. Materials published above have been prepared for your private use and their sole purpose is to educate readers about various investments.

    By reading Mr. Radomski's essays or reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these essays or reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. We strongly advise that you consult a certified investment advisor and we encourage you to do your own research before making any investment decision. Mr. Radomski, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in