Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
Will Biden’s Neo-Populist Economic Doctrine Support Gold? - 25th Sep 21
Markets Deflationary Winds Howling - 25th Sep 21
Crude Oil Price Piercing the Sky: Where Will We See the Black Gold by Xmas? - 25th Sep 21
Cryptocurrency policy choices and consequences - 25th Sep 21
The Next Emma Raducanu UK Tennis Star Pleasing the Crowds at Millhouses Park Sheffield - 25th Sep 21
Stock Market Rescued by the Fed Again? - 24th Sep 21
Are Amazon Best Cheap Memory Foam Mattresses Any good? Bedzonline £69 4ft Small Double ECO Example - 24th Sep 21
Evergrande not a Minsky Moment - 24th Sep 21
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold Takes One More Step Towards Center Stage of the Global Monetary System!

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2010 Nov 09, 2010 - 07:56 AM GMT

By: Julian_DW_Phillips

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBefore the Gold Forecaster came into being, it had become clear that gold was headed back into the monetary system. Why, you may well ask? It was because of the "Washington Agreement". This agreement changed the tone of central banker's approach to gold. This Agreement inspired the start of Gold Forecaster. Since then the newsletter has forecast the very events that are now taking place and has been right on each of gold's moves in price and in re-acceptance over this last decade.


What did the "Washington Agreement" do? Instead of harping on about it being a 'barbarous relic' and continuing to threaten to dump gold into the market and out of the monetary system, the European Central bankers involved in the agreement that bound them, reaffirmed that gold was an important Reserve Asset and restricted the sales of gold to a 400 tonne 'cap' on gold sales per annum. It was at that point that the gold price began to rise. While the establishment of the Euro was deemed to require these sales, central bankers were not keen to sell and some were even forced to do so by their government [France in particular]. This established that gold as an important part of the monetary system and that it was not going to be dumped into the market place then or in the future.

Foundations for currency crises built

During the next nine years the world saw the restrained sales of gold by European central bankers, leaving the market believing that gold was not really going to be a credible part of the monetary scene in the future. But then came the 'credit crunch', the banking crises, the Sovereign debt crises and now quantitative easing, all of which has slowly sapped confidence in the system of government issued currencies. With the credibility and the value of currencies utterly reliant on the central banks and governments behind them any misbehavior in terms of a currencies value both home and abroad, would reflect itself eventually. With the U.S. dollar the heart of the currency system, when it began to be devalued through a continuing trade deficit over decades, doubts had already been established.

Emergence of Asia - decline of the West

Riding in tandem with these currency debilitating events, was the emergence of Asia. With half the world's population living in Asia and less than half China's population making up the total population of the developed world, it is only a matter of time before the developed world is eclipsed economically by Asia.

Asia has realized this and slowly but surely has begun to build its own gold reserves in difficult circumstances. As a result, in 2009 central banks turned from sellers of gold to either holders or buyers, taking 400 tonnes to themselves. The I.M.F. sale of 403.3 tonnes of gold is likely to be the last time gold in quantity is offered by any of the worlds leading institutions.

Asia's emergence does not mean that it will accept the developed world's currency system. So far as it is to its advantage it has done so but it is clear from the current friction between China and the U.S. on these matters that China will walk its own road, just as the U.S. will do so too. The system as it stands is a hoch-poch of compromises since the Bretton Woods system was established after the Second World War It suits the U.S. primarily. As the U.S. declines, so will the U.S. initiated currency system, not just the dollar. It is inevitable that monetary reformation will come. The question is, will the west work with the east on the reformation or must it be forged in the friction of discord? How bad is this discord?

China

Wang Jun, China's vice-finance minister, said that instead of helping, QE2 is a shock to financial markets. With $2.5 + trillion in their reserves, China is most unhappy about the devaluation of these reserves through QE. It is taking steps to diversify and we believe that we will see dramatic steps taken soon that will further undermine the U.S. dollar in the global system. QE will push China into accelerating these steps. China is buying its own gold production and has encouraged the importation of gold and its own citizens to buy gold.

Germany

Wolfgang Chauble, Germany's finance minister, criticized the return to QE and said the US economic model as in "deep crisis." The Eurozone itself is suffering heavy debt stresses still with few believing that the Sovereign debt crises have abated. So, comments from Germany, which is part of the Eurozone in deep crisis emphasizes the interdependence of the Eurozone with the U.S. currency and economic plight. We noted that Germany has not been a seller of its own gold [except for a small amount for coins] in the Central Bank Gold Agreements. It believes that gold is a 'counter to the swings in the U.S. dollar'.

Emerging nations with relatively high interest rates will be the collateral damage that ripples out from the U.S. They are being encouraged by the World Bank to impose temporary Capital Controls to cope with the flood of U.S. dollars leaving the shores of the U.S. Some Asian emerging nations are increasing their reserves of gold as fast as they are able to do so.

The world's central bankers have had an extreme change of heart when it comes to gold. The have told us by their actions that they want gold in their reserves as an asset that will help them should they face a time when currencies, in general, need the support of gold.

A global currency crisis

Not since the end of the last World War has the world faced so many doubts in the future of currencies and the paper money system. Worse than that there is still no perceived need to do anything about it, with each nation myopically looking inwards.

That is until the head of the World Bank wrote his piece in the Financial Times of London. He has advocated that gold should be used as an 'international reference point and guide to market expectations of inflation, deflation and future currency levels. Before looking at the workability of these suggestions, we should pause and consider what prompted such remarks from the head of one of the two world institutions that appears qualified to comment on the state of the current monetary system impartially [WB and IMF].

  1. His comments have to have been prompted by the growing loss of confidence primarily in the U.S. dollar whose value is expected to fall particularly in the light of this next batch of money printing by the Fed. This loss of confidence is being felt by central banks, institutions and by individuals involved in global markets. It has yet to be felt inside the U.S.A.

  2. The fact that he, the head of the World Bank expressed such views reflects the fact that at all levels of the monetary system doubts are being felt by governments in the overall monetary system, not just in the dollar.

  3. That he spoke on this subject reflects the need for and debate about monetary reform at very senior levels globally.

  4. He raised the subject ahead of the next G-20 meeting perhaps in the hope that the subject will be attended to at this coming meeting. We have absolutely no confidence in the meetings of the G-20 as they have consistently failed to produce any concrete action in past meetings. This too reflects the fear that nothing will be done about reformation until the situation has decayed to an extremely dire one.

  5. If he feels that gold, a globally accepted form of money, can be used to measure currencies as they decay, then there must be a swell of agreement that as all else is failing gold would at least give some measurability and consequentially, responsibility to correct matters. Please note that this suggestion is not a gold standard, simply a use of gold to value other monetary instruments.

  6. Politicians and bankers are completely opposed to being measured by gold as this will give clear visibility to the decay in monetary confidence. Hence, we do not expect action to be taken on gold until all else has failed.

Gold Forecaster regularly covers all fundamental and Technical aspects of the gold price in the weekly newsletter. To subscribe, please visit www.GoldForecaster.com

By Julian D. W. Phillips
Gold-Authentic Money

Copyright 2009 Authentic Money. All Rights Reserved.
Julian Phillips - was receiving his qualifications to join the London Stock Exchange. He was already deeply immersed in the currency turmoil engulfing world in 1970 and the Institutional Gold Markets, and writing for magazines such as "Accountancy" and the "International Currency Review" He still writes for the ICR.

What is Gold-Authentic Money all about ? Our business is GOLD! Whether it be trends, charts, reports or other factors that have bearing on the price of gold, our aim is to enable you to understand and profit from the Gold Market.

Disclaimer - This document is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to purchase or subscribe for any investment. Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips, have based this document on information obtained from sources it believes to be reliable but which it has not independently verified; Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips make no guarantee, representation or warranty and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness. Expressions of opinion are those of Gold-Authentic Money / Julian D. W. Phillips only and are subject to change without notice.

Julian DW Phillips Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in