Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Stock Markets and the History Chart of the End of the World (With Presidential Cycles) - 28th Aug 20
2.Google, Apple, Amazon, Facebook... AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels and Valuations Q3 2020 - 31st Aug 20
3.The Inflation Mega-trend is Going Hyper! - 11th Sep 20
4.Is this the End of Capitalism? - 13th Sep 20
5.What's Driving Gold, Silver and What's Next? - 3rd Sep 20
6.QE4EVER! - 9th Sep 20
7.Gold Price Trend Forecast Analysis - Part1 - 7th Sep 20
8.The Fed May “Cause” The Next Stock Market Crash - 3rd Sep 20
9.Bitcoin Price Crash - You Will be Suprised What Happens Next - 7th Sep 20
10.NVIDIA Stock Price Soars on RTX 3000 Cornering the GPU Market for next 2 years! - 3rd Sep 20
Last 7 days
Google Alphabet (GOOG) AI Deep Mind Stock Trend Analysis - 17th Apr 21
Stocks and Bonds Inflationary Slingshot - 17th Apr 21
Best Smartphone Selfie Stick Tripod Review by ATUMTEK Works with Samsung Galaxy and Iphone - 17th Apr 21
How to Give Budgie's First Bath | Easy Budgie Bathing and Water Training with Lettuce - 17th Apr 21
Record-breaking Decrease in New Passenger Vehicle Sale in Europe - 17th Apr 21
US Stocks Climb A “Wall Of Worry” To New Highs - 16th Apr 21
Gold’s Singular Role - 16th Apr 21
See what Anatomy of a Bursting Market Bubble looks like - 16th Apr 21
Many Stock Market Sectors Are Primed For Another Breakout Rally – Are You? - 16th Apr 21
What Skyrocketing US Home Prices Say About Inflation - 16th Apr 21
Still a Bullish Fever in Stocks? - 16th Apr 21
Trying to Buy Coinbase Stock on IPO Day - Institutional Investors Freeze out Retail Investors - 15th Apr 21
Stocks or Gold – Which Is in the Catbird Seat? - 15th Apr 21
Time For A Stock Market Melt-Up - 15th Apr 21
Stocks Bull Market Progression Now Shows Base Metal Strength - 15th Apr 21
AI Tech Stocks Buy Ratings, Levels and Valuations - 14th Apr 21
Easy 10% to 15% Overclock for 5600x, 5900x, 5950x Using AMD Ryzen Master Precision Boost Overdrive - 14th Apr 21
The Current Cannabis Sector Rally Is Pointing To Another Breakout - 14th Apr 21
U.S. Dollar Junk Bond Market The Easiest Money in History - 14th Apr 21
The SPY Is Nearing Resistance @ $410… What Is Next? - 14th Apr 21
The Curious Stock Market Staircase Rally - 14th Apr 21
Stocks are Heating Up - 14th Apr 21
Two Methods in Calculating For R&D Tax Credits - 14th Apr 21
Stock Market Minor Correction Due - 13th Apr 21
How to Feed Budgies Cucumbers - Best Vegetables Feeding for the First Time, Parakeet Care UK - 13th Apr 21
Biggest Inflation Threat in 40 Years Looms over Markets - 13th Apr 21
How to Get Rich with the Pareto Distribution - Tesco Example - 13th Apr 21
Litecoin and Bitcoin-Which Is Better? - 13th Apr 21
The Major Advantages Of Getting Your PhD Online - 12th Apr 21
Covid-19 Pandemic Current State for UK, US, Europe, Brazil Vaccinations vs Lockdown's Third Wave - 12th Apr 21
Why These Stock Market Indicators Should Grab Your Full Attention - 12th Apr 21
Rising Debt Means a Weaker US Dollar - 12th Apr 21
Another Gold Stocks Upleg - 12th Apr 21
AMD The ZEN Tech Stock - 12th Apr 21
Overclockers UK Build Quality - Why Glue Fan to CPU Heat sink Instead of Using Supplied Clips? - 12th Apr 21 -
What are the Key Capabilities You Should Look for in Fleet Management Software? - 12th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Gold? - 12th Apr 21
UK Covd-19 FREE Lateral Flow Self Testing Kits How Use for the First Time at Home - 10th Apr 21
NVIDIA Stock ARMED and Dangeorus! - 10th Apr 21
The History of Bitcoin Hard Forks - 10th Apr 21
Gold Mining Stocks: A House Built on Shaky Ground - 9th Apr 21
Stock Market On the Verge of a Pullback - 9th Apr 21
What Is Bitcoin Unlimited? - 9th Apr 21
Most Money Managers Gamble With Your Money - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 Evolving Trends For Mobile Casinos - 9th Apr 21
Top 5 AI Tech Stocks Investing 2021 Analysis - 8th Apr 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast 2021 - Crash or Continuing Bull Run? - 8th Apr 21
Don’t Be Fooled by the Stock Market Rally - 8th Apr 21
Gold and Latin: Twin Pillars of Western Rejuvenation - 8th Apr 21
Stronger US Dollar Reacts To Global Market Concerns – Which ETFs Will Benefit? Part II - 8th Apr 21
You're invited: Spot the Next BIG Move in Oil, Gas, Energy ETFs - 8th Apr 21
Ladies and Gentlemen, Mr US Dollar is Back - 8th Apr 21
Stock Market New S&P 500 Highs or Metals Rising? - 8th Apr 21
Microsoft AI Azure Cloud Computing Driving Tech Giant Profits - 7th Apr 21
Amazon Tech Stock PRIMEDAY SALE- 7th Apr 21
The US has Metals Problem - Lithium, Graphite, Copper, Nickel Supplies - 7th Apr 21
Yes, the Fed Will Cover Biden’s $4 Trillion Deficit - 7th Apr 21
S&P 500 Fireworks and Gold Going Stronger - 7th Apr 21
Stock Market Perceived Vs. Actual Risks: The Key To Success - 7th Apr 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

FIRST ACCESS to Nadeem Walayat’s Analysis and Trend Forecasts

Stock & Commodity Markets Elliott Wave update - Play It Again, Sam !

Stock-Markets / Forecasts & Technical Analysis Jan 21, 2007 - 05:00 PM GMT

By: Dominick

Stock-Markets

The Jan 14th update stated:

So, what's next? NOW we are finally getting to where I can become comfortable looking for the market to complete my count. I may have started to sound like a broken record, saying, “I still didn't see confirmation of a top and that I needed another new high”. But it's the market's that's been playing this same old sideways tune.

Sentiment indicators have tried to provide sell signals intraday but we haven't closed into those levels. Indicators are diverged, but this recent rally has kept them from triggering sell signals. With that said, the good news is that if I do get the signals any time soon, I can finally be comfortable labeling a chart complete, knowing it's correct.

Well, nothing has changed. I still don't have a sell signal and I don't gauge sentiment at the end of an options expiry week. We opened the week on the S&P trying to poke our heads to higher levels only to find sellers out playing whack-a-mole. We tried on Tuesday, and then again on Wednesday only to selloff into Thursday. Basically, the market's still playing the same sideways tune.


I'm sure many traders were either buying into the new highs or sold the reversal of it thinking it was the big one again . We instead, had our roadmap to use, and it went well. The chart below was posted at 11:00 on Tuesday morning and the rest of the week we waited for the S&P to find its way into and out of the target area. We weren't chasing any moves but instead, buying and selling support and resistance. In 4 th waves, you either trade it back and forth or find a different market that is moving. We did both.

S&P Elliott Wave Analysis

In all, it was a pretty boring week for index trading, seeing more of a healthy pullback than anything else, but it was nice to see members use the Forums to their advantage in other markets. We spent most of the time taking advantage of the drama on the financial news stations in regards to oil. The talking heads have officially gone from bracing us for $100 oil to an almost palpable sense of disappointment as they start to anticipate the price will drop under $30? What happened to peak oil? I think the point to take is that watching the news is no way to make money. Folks, wake up and use your charts or go broke!

I've been looking for a bottom in oil over the last week or two and expressed last week that I was looking to buy it above 54.61. With all the non-stop talk of oil, I posted on Wednesday at 11:00 that I was going to take a small long position. The next day, after rallying off the lows, oil made a slight new low, and has since started to advance upward. It was actually nice to start getting questions like, “What is the symbol for oil futures”, or, “What is the symbol for the ETF?” There are many markets to trade and people are realizing that many of them are actually easier because they move more transparently. Many traders at the Forum took home 2 points of profit from oil and, after they turned off CNBC, laughed their way into the weekend.

If I could have my way, oil would play around at this level a bit and then spike down and reverse leaving no one on board for the next train going to $60 plus. But oil is going to do the deciding and, if it blasts off from here, I have no problem paying up after confirmation that the low is in. We're still under the 54.61 and it's questionable if a low has been established or if another low is needed. The March contract has resistance right above it and I've been taking my profits into the weekend. Once I can see confirmation, I'll either wait for the low or chase the price higher. But, as you can see from this daily oil chart, there was a reason for traders to start buying recently.

Oil price Elliott wave analysis
 

If we do get lucky and see a spike to a higher low, a double bottom or a take out of the lows, I expect it to be fast and to reverse. There could be a nice bear trap at 50.50. Being so close to $50 makes you think that it will be penetrated, if only to open the trap door. If that were to happen, I'll be watching 49.70 closely, but the March contract does have targets down to 47.60.

So, as you can see, even though last week was boring, we kept busy. Going forward, we may have plenty of chances to do it again, but we'll definitely be keeping our eye first and foremost on the major indexes. Friday's advance on the S&P will probably have early next week taking off to new highs, where we have the potential of creating a reversal pattern. Otherwise, the S&P's are looking to buy time into either the end of the month, or possibly around February 8 th . If so,

we might trade sideways to down until we approach those dates.

The only surprise here would be an impulse move lower, and that wouldn't come as a shock to anyone following the Nasdaq, which might be already heading south. I rather have a pop to short as I patiently watch to see if my NYSE target mentioned months ago reaches perfection. The chart below shows the NYSE weekly at the 9314 target. Sure, at this proximity it would already be considered a hit, but why get in the way of Mother Nature?

Dow Jones  Elliott wave analysis

And could the DAX be running into nice resistance and getting ready to lead us to what we've been waiting for in the S&P? The chart below seems to think so. Generally, the Dax has been behaving excellently and is another example of a market that's much cleaner than the S&P.

S&P 500  Elliott wave analysis

Another area to watch going forward is the volatility index. For years I've joked that the markets would not top until the VIX closed under 10. Not only has it done so, but it now seems to like this level and may want to consolidate or poke even lower in the short term. The chart below, however, shows what the direction of the larger move should ultimately be.

VIX  Elliott wave analysis
Free Elliott Wave Tutorial

Grains
When one door is closed, another is opened. When the indexes got slow we traded oil. If oil decides to consolidate at this low, we'll find another market to trade. It just so happens that we are watching another hot new item everyone's talking about. I think we have a great technical setup possibly waiting in the grain markets. The chart below, which members can view in the grain forum, shows the setup in detail.


Google
Last week's idea was,

Long positions should now adjust their stops to the idea of resistance close above.

After a 60 point rally, the double top kicked in as the RSI diverged. Nothing has changed. We now need to see what it wants to do, hit my target or start heading down in a big way. I'll lean a bit in favor of my target until proven wrong, but there isn't a good risk/reward trade here in my opinion. Staying out of a market until there is something to work with is a good choice. Again, when one door is closed . . .

Google  Elliott wave analysis

Metals
Precious metals have been swinging pretty nicely of late, even though they holding roughly to sideways consolidation patterns. For more in depth analysis, be sure to read Joe's weekly Precious Points updates.

Have a great week trading, and don't forget:

“Unbiased Elliott Wave works!”

By Dominick

For real-time analysis, become a member of http://www.tradingthecharts.com for only $50

If you've enjoyed this article, signup for MarketUp dates , our monthly newsletter, and, for more immediate analysis and market reaction, view my work and the charts exchanged between our seasoned traders in TradingtheCharts forum. Continued success has inspired expansion of the “open access to non subscribers” forums, and our Market Advisory members and I have agreed to post our work in these forums periodically. Explore services from Wall Street's best, including Jim Curry, Tim Ords, Glen Neely, Richard Rhodes, Andre Gratian, Bob Carver, Eric Hadik, Chartsedge, Elliott today, Stock Barometer, Harry Boxer, Mike Paulenoff and others. Try them all, subscribe to the ones that suit your style, and accelerate your trading profits! These forums are on the top of the homepage at Trading the Charts. Market analysts are always welcome to contribute to the Forum or newsletter. Email me @ Dominick@tradingthecharts.com if you have any interest.

This update is provided as general information and is not an investment recommendation. TTC accepts no liability whatsoever for any losses resulting from action taken based on the contents of its charts, commentaries, or price data. Securities and commodities markets involve inherent risk and not all positions are suitable for each individual. Check with your licensed financial advisor or broker prior to taking any action.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules