The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose to 54.1 in November from 49.9 in October. Both the Present Situation Index (24.0 vs. 23.5) and Expectations Index (74.2 vs. 67.5) advanced in November. There is a bullish tone in economic reports of November - payroll employment, auto sales, factory production, retail sales, regional purchasing managers' surveys and consumer confidence measures among other reports that have been disappointing - home sales, jobless rate, durable goods orders.

About other details of the consumer survey, respondents indicating "jobs are hard to find" moved up slightly to 46.5% during November from 46.3% in October, while those noting that "jobs are plentiful" rose to 4.0% from 3.5% in the same period. The net of these two indexes has a strong positive correlation with the jobless rate and it edged down slightly to 42.5 in November from 42.8 in the prior month. The unemployment rate for November will be published on December 3. Based on this relationship, the jobless rate should be below the October reading of 9.6%. The unemployment rate has held between 9.5% and 9.6% for five straight months.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com
Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

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