Initial jobless claims fell 20,000 to 368,000 during the week ended February 27. This reading is the lowest since May 2008 (see Chart 8). Continuing claims, which lag initial jobless claims by one week, declined 59,000 to 3.774 million, the lowest since October 2008 (see Chart 9). Both of these readings suggest a noticeable improvement in the labor market. The number of applicants obtaining unemployment insurance under the special programs increased roughly 57,000 for the week ended February 13.

The employment report for February is scheduled for publication on March 4. The unemployment rate is projected to rise to 9.2% from 9.0% in January. Underlying this forecast is the assumption of an increase in the labor force, which has not grown since August 2010. Payroll employment is expected to have increased 150,000 after a gain of 36,000 in January. The employment indexes of the ISM manufacturing and non-manufacturing surveys moved up in February. These employment indexes, advanced five months, have a strong positive correlation with private sector payroll employment (see Chart 10) and support expectations of an increase in payrolls.

Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist

http://www.northerntrust.com

Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

Comments

g kaiser
04 Mar 11, 13:37

us unemployment figures

I think the numbers coming out of America are to a large extent massaged and presented in a way to paint lipstick on the pig.

I think further that more and more people realize this and take such information with a large dose of salt.

If you look at the figure of labour participation rates, you will find that it is sliding lower and lower.

Long term unemployed, the people deemed to not "actively" look for employment and many people employed in wrong jobs are largely ignored.

There is no improvement of note, except for more smoke and mirrors.

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