Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Silver Price Suppression: How, Why and Effect

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2011 Mar 28, 2011 - 01:18 PM GMT

By: Rob_Kirby

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThis paper is written as a response to market observers who opine, “how can the price of precious metals be suppressed when their prices have empirically gone up 4 fold and more over the past 10 years?”


The following graph depicts the price performance of silver over the course of 2010, paying special attention to the change in silver derivatives positions at both J.P. Morgue and HSBC:

The U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Currency [OCC] publishes quarterly data showing the change in aggregate derivatives data of reporting Commercial Banks:

When we juxtapose Q3/2010 precious metals aggregates against Q4/2010 – we can see that J.P. Morgue and HSBC cumulatively added roughly 4 billion in silver derivatives.  We know these institutions are “short” because the Commitment of Traders Report [COTS] published weekly by the CFTC have perpetually shown the “Commercials” category to be short.  J.P. Morgue and HSBC are “Commercials”. 

What Could Have, Should Have But Wasn’t Allowed to Happen [thank you CFTC]:

While the price of silver did rise in Q4/2010 – in the absence of J.P. Morgue and HSBC piling on suppressive, paper, future short sales – the price rise would have undoubtedly been much steeper.

Conclusions:  The price rise of silver in Q4/2010 would have been much steeper had J.P. Morgue and HSBC not “shellacked” the market with an additional, cumulative 4 billion in price-suppressive, paper short sales.  Had these agents of the U.S. Federal Reserve not undertaken this market manipulation – the price of silver would have soared much higher, making the already weak U.S. Dollar look even more unattractive as a prudent vehicle for countries seeking diversification/safety of their reserve positions.

The CFTC is “owned” by the banks they are supposed to regulate.  Instead of ensuring the sanctity of our capital markets, enforcing meaningful position limits, they aid-and-abet the banks in their price rigging [undoubtedly in the name of fiat preservation / National Security].

What is really occurring in precious metals-ville is that DEMAND for physical metal is now increasingly trumping the fraudulent, unlimited supply of paper metal [futures].  This is why “BEAT-DOWNS” in price – like the buck and half swoon depicted below [circled] on March 11, 2011 – no longer cause MASSIVE, LASTING breakdowns. A couple of years ago an engineered sell-off like the one depicted below would have decimated the silver market for months:

The real reason for the growing resilience in the metals markets is this: despite shills claiming that physical supply is no problem – institutional investors and national mints are having increasing difficulty sourcing physical metal.

In the past – smack downs in the price made investors wary and blunted demand.  Today, investors are better informed and realize that smack downs in price when physical supplies are tight - are not only counter-intuitive, they’re a sign of desperation – and this brings buyers of physical metal “out of the woodwork”.

The game has fundamentally changed – but don’t tell the chartists – they’re still married to their Fibonacci retracements and buggy-whip, Bollinger bands.

With Central Banks continuing to increase the rate at which they create money out of thin air – we can logically expect this increased demand for physical precious metal to keep the price vectoring upward, to the right.

Got physical yet?

By Rob Kirby

http://www.kirbyanalytics.com/

Rob Kirby is proprietor of Kirbyanalytics.com and sales agent for Bullion Custodial Services.  Subscribers to the Kirbyanalytics newsletter can look forward to a weekend publication analyzing many recent global geo-political events and more.  Subscribe to Kirbyanalytics news letter here.  Buy physical gold, silver or platinum bullion here.

Copyright © 2011 Rob Kirby - All rights reserved.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any trading losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors before engaging in any trading activities.

Rob Kirby Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in