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Shorting Overbought Commodities , Gold, Oil & Gas Using UltraShort ETF

Commodities / Crude Oil Nov 13, 2007 - 08:58 AM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleThe big picture of the DUG (the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas ETF) shows Monday morning's huge upside opening gap and follow-through that amounts to about a 6% climb from Friday's close.

More importantly, though, is the upside assault on the Sept-Nov resistance plateau at 44.00-44.50, which when hurdled should trigger additional follow-through to test the Feb-Nov resistance line that cuts across the price axis in the vicinity of 49.00.


Gold, like oil, looks lower. Spot gold continued down on Monday in what looks like a significant decline off a blow-off type peak. Here is what I wrote for subscribers on Friday morning:

The three salient features of the big picture view of spot gold are: 1) that the current vertical advance measures $205, which approximates the distance of the widest traverse of the proceeding 15-month coil pattern -- and usually identifies the optimal follow-through target zone -- in this case in the $830/40 area; and 2) that the relatively reliable 15-week cycle (low to low, see blue arrows) points to a next cycle "low" around December 3rd, which is about 3 1/2 weeks from now and represents 25% of the cycle length -- just about the position in a "right translated" cycle to expect a period of weakness into a cycle low.

Finally, 3) my daily RSI is not confirming Thursday's new high in spot gold, which is a third cause for some concern that a correction is approaching quickly.

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis on equity markets, futures, metals, currencies and Treasuries.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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