Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21
CISCO 2020 Dot com Bubble Stock vs 2021 Bubble Tech Stocks Warning Analysis - 6th Oct 21
Precious Metals Complex Searching for a Bottom - 6th Oct 21
FB, AMZN, NFLX, GOOG, AAPL and FANG+ '5 Waves' Speaks Volumes - 6th Oct 21
Budgies Flying Ability 10 Weeks After wings Clipped, Flight Feathers Cut Grow Back - 6th Oct 21
Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
Will China's Crackdown Send Bitcoin's Price Tumbling? - 5th Oct 21
Natural Gas News: Europe Lacks Supply, So It Turns to Asia - 5th Oct 21
Stock Market Correction: One More Spark to Light the Fire? - 5th Oct 21
Fractal Design Meshify S2, Best PC Case Review, Build Quality, Airflow etc. - 5th Oct 21
Chasing Value with Five More Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 4th Oct 21
Gold’s Century - While stocks dominated headlines, gold quietly performed - 4th Oct 21
NASDAQ Stock Market Head-n-Shoulders Warns Of Market Weakness – Critical Topping Pattern - 4th Oct 21
US Dollar on plan, attended by the Gold/Silver ratio - 4th Oct 21
Aptorum Group - APM - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 3rd Oct 21
US Close to Hitting the Debt Ceiling: Gold Doesn’t Care - 3rd Oct 21
Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
Original Oculus VR HeadSet Rift Dev Kit v1 Before Facebook Bought Oculus - 3rd Oct 21
Microsoft Stock Valuation 2021 vs 2000 Bubble - Buy Sell or Hold Invest Analysis - 1st Oct 21
How to profit off the Acquisition spree in Fintech Stocks - 1st Oct 21
�� Halloween 2021 TESCO Shopping Before the Next Big Panic Buying! �� - 1st Oct 2
The Guide to Building a Design Portfolio Online - 1st Oct 21
BioDelivery Sciences International - BDSI - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 30th Sep 21
America’s Revolving-Door Politics Behind the Fall of US-Sino Ties - 30th Sep 21
Dovish to Hawkish Fed: Sounds Bearish for Gold - 30th Sep 21
Stock Market Gauntlet to the Fed - 30th Sep 21
Should you include ESG investments in your portfolio? - 30th Sep 21
Takeda - TAK - High RIsk Biotech Stocks Buy, Sell, Hold Investing Analysis for the Long-run - 29th Sep 21
Stock Market Wishing Away Inflation - 29th Sep 21
Why Workers Are NOT Returning to Work as Lockdown's End - Wage Slaves Rebellion - 29th Sep 21
UK Fuel PANIC! Fighting at the Petrol Pumps! As Lemmings Create a New Crisis - 29th Sep 21
Gold Could See Tapering as Soon as November! - 29th Sep 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Was 2011 a Springboard for Gold 2012?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2012 Jan 08, 2012 - 07:21 AM GMT

By: Jeff_Clark

Commodities

Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleBy Jeff Clark, Casey Research writes: 2011 was remarkable in many ways for the precious metals markets. Gold soared to new highs in early September, hitting at an intraday record of $1,920/ounce on the fifth. Silver screamed to within a hair of $50 on April 28. Corrections ensued, and the metals ended the year on a disappointing note for silver and an underwhelming note for gold. Equities for the sector were down, to way down for junior ventures, logging their worst annual return since 2008.


Here's a table of 2011 returns from most major asset classes:

Gold registered its eleventh consecutive annual gain, extending the bull market that began in 2001. The yellow metal gained 10.1% – a solid return, though moderate when compared to previous years.

Silver lost almost 10% year over year, due primarily to its dual nature. Currency concerns lit a match under the price early in the year, while global economic concerns forced it to give it all back later.

Gold mining stocks couldn't shake the need for antidepressants most of the year, and another correction in gold in December dragged them further down.

Meanwhile, those who sat in US government debt in 2011 were handsomely rewarded, with Treasury bonds recording one of their biggest annual gains. In spite of the unparalleled downgrade of the country's AAA credit rating, Treasuries were one of the best-performing asset classes of the year. The driving forces there are expanding fear about the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, combined with the Fed's promise to keep interest rates low through 2013.

But perhaps it would be more accurate to look at 2011 in a larger context. How did these investments perform over the past three years?

There's a lot to be said about the chart above, but we'll cut to the chase: Despite the higher volatility, we'd much rather be investing in the assets on the left side of the chart than those on the right.

But 2011 is now part of the history books. The important question before us is: Is gold still one of the best places for money going forward? Let's take a look at what we might expect in 2012 based on what we just left behind…

The Fundamental Case for Gold Remains Rock Solid

Gold demand from investment and central banks grew tremendously last year. Further, the geography of gold buying was widespread, with big purchases coming from Europe during the initial bouts of their crisis and Japan after the Fukushima accident. Small investors and monetary authorities alike purchased gold due to economic, financial, monetary, and political concerns. Quite frankly, we see none of these factors changing anytime soon.

Further, many countries continue to debase their currencies at phenomenal rates (see Bud Conrad's related article below). While US Treasuries may be a good temporary parking spot for cash, don't kid yourself about what's behind it all: nothing. The dollar is a fiat currency, no more. A true safe haven is something that cannot be debased, devalued, or destroyed by any government. After accounting for inflation, your dollars are worth less every year.

The reasons for gold's bull market aren't going away anytime soon. Make sure you have enough exposure to make a material difference to your portfolio.

Don't Be Deceived by Promises of Economic Growth

The US economy ended the year on a high note – the job market is improving, gas is cheaper, consumer confidence grew, real estate showed signs of recovery, and the holiday shopping season turned out better than most economists expected. So, can the US grow its way out of the debt burden? Can we forget about further money printing schemes that are bullish for gold?

We think there's little chance that growth will be sustainable in 2012. First, the biggest chunk of GDP growth in 2011 came from personal consumption – savings cuts and income growth in particular.

Strong GDP growth comes from production, not consumption. As Doug Casey has stated many times, it's also the secret to personal wealth: "Produce more than you consume and save and invest the difference."

Second, according to a recent Time article, "The government says that once you adjust for inflation, weekly earnings dropped 1.8% from November 2010 to last month" [November 2011]. As a result, "Consumers have used savings or credit cards to finance their purchases." This is hardly a sign of a strong economy.

Combining these facts with surging government debt and ongoing deficit spending means the "growth" in GDP is largely supported by… debt. US debt surpassed GDP last year for the first time since 1947, and if the Keynesians get their way, the cure for our massive debt overhang will be… more debt. Any such scheme, regardless of its name, is very bullish for gold.

Preserve your wealth with gold, not fiat currency.

The Gold Price Will Continue To Be Volatile

The average annual gold price in 2011 was $1,571.50/ounce, which was 28% higher than the prior year's average. As we outlined in a recent article about gold corrections, the average retreat in gold since 2001 (of those greater than 5%) is 12.5%. Declines of this degree are normal. They will happen again. Thus, expected price behavior leads us to get excited when gold and related stocks go on sale, not depressed about the dips.

If you buy gold during corrections, your gain by the end of the year will be higher than the annual advance.

Gold Equities Are (Still) Dirt Cheap

Yes, precious metals stocks have lagged the underlying commodity price throughout the year. Yes, they were a disappointment in 2011 – but 2011 is only one chapter in this gold bull-market story. For most miners, margins are high, dividends are increasing, and valuations are extremely low, despite the recent fall in metal prices. We can't tell you exactly when the turnaround will begin, but we're confident that the time is coming when gold stocks will once again bring us leveraged performance, particularly when the greater investment community recognizes their value and clamors for increased exposure to the gold market.

The old adage to buy low and sell high still applies. When it comes to gold stocks, we're at the "buy low" part of the formula right now.

So, if you're feeling like 2011 was a dud for your gold portfolio, we suggest you shake off the funk. It is precisely when such feelings abound that contrarian buying opportunities are at their best. The way to buy low is to buy when others are selling. Using the current weakness in prices to get positioned for the next liftoff is the way to play this. Remember that volatility cuts both ways: just like dips, a springboard to the upside will come – of that we're certain. And given the tenuous state of global finances and the temptation to print, one of these liftoffs is going to be life-changing.

[2012 could be one for the record books for gold and gold stocks, based on the simple fact that big climbs follow big falls – and Casey Research expects many more big climbs in this bull market. Learn how Jeff Clark boosted his mother's IRA over 90%... something you can do, too.]

© 2012 Copyright Casey Research - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in