FOMC Meeting: Divided House about Additional Quantitative Easing
Interest-Rates / Quantitative Easing Feb 15, 2012 - 12:45 PM GMTBy: Asha_Bangalore
The minutes of the FOMC meeting of January 24-25 presented a range of opinions about whether further monetary accommodation through asset purchases (QE3) is necessary. At one end of the spectrum, “a few members observed that, in their judgment, current and prospective economic conditions – including elevated unemployment and inflation at or below the Committee’s objective – could initiate the purchases of additional securities before long.” A more qualified position was held by other members who indicated that “such policy action would become necessary if the economy lost momentum or inflation seemed likely to remain below is mandate consistent rate of 2 percent in the medium run.” In stark contrast to these two opinions that suggest an inclination toward additional asset purchases or QE3, on member viewed maintaining the current extent of monetary accommodation more than the near term as “inappropriate.”
The discussion about risks to the forecast was dominated by concerns about ongoing economic and financial developments in Europe and the possibility that spillovers from the financial and fiscal issues would be larger than assumed at the present time. As a result, “a majority of participants continued to report that they saw the risks to their forecasts of real GDP growth as weighted to the downside and, accordingly, the risks to their projections for the unemployment rate as skewed to the upside.” Risks pertaining to the FOMC’s projections of inflation were presented as broadly balanced.
The minutes also included “qualitative information” on the views of member with regard to the balance sheet of the Fed. A number of members indicated that “they remained open to a consideration of additional asset purchases if the economic outlook deteriorated.” Most members held the view that sales agency securities would not commence until 2015 and it would take 3-5 years to eliminate holdings of agency securities. Members expecting to raise the federal funds rate sooner than others called for earlier adjustments. One member assumed an early end of the maturity extension program that is underway. Essentially, the minutes point to the prevalence of a range of opinions about the prospects about additional asset purchases. A reasonable inference is that the nature of incoming economic data will determine if QE3 will be implemented.
Asha Bangalore — Senior Vice President and Economist
http://www.northerntrust.com
Asha Bangalore is Vice President and Economist at The Northern Trust Company, Chicago. Prior to joining the bank in 1994, she was Consultant to savings and loan institutions and commercial banks at Financial & Economic Strategies Corporation, Chicago.
Copyright © 2012 Asha Bangalore
The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.
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