Although spot gold remains stuck between a set of convergent support and resistance lines derived from the Mar 11 rally peak at $1717.36, my near-term pattern work argues that what looks like a coil is really the initiation of a new rally phase off of the Mar 22 low at $1631.89.

If my perception of the developing pattern proves correct, then spot gold is building a potentially powerful base-like formation that will explode to the upside in the upcoming hours/days . . . if and when the price structure next hurdles resistance between $1682 and $1694.

At this juncture, only a decline that breaks $1655/50 will compromise the timing of the anticipated thrust, while a break of $1645-$1632 will compromise my bullish scenario altogether for spot gold as well as the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com), a real-time diary of his technical analysis and trading alerts on ETFs covering metals, energy, equity indices, currencies, Treasuries, and specific industries and international regions.

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