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Recent Federal Budgetary Trends: Facts, Not Opinions

Interest-Rates / US Interest Rates Apr 14, 2012 - 08:15 AM GMT

By: Paul_L_Kasriel

Interest-Rates

The federal budget deficit reached its widest gap on a 12-month moving total basis in February 2010 at $1.478 trillion. Although remaining at astronomical levels, the budget deficit has been trending lower and stood at $1.246 trillion in March 2012. The year-over-year growth in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays peaked at 19.7% in July 2009. In March 2012, the year-over-year change in the 12-month moving total of federal outlays was minus 1.1%. The median growth in the year-over-year moving total of federal outlays from December 1955 through March 2012 is 6.6%.


Starting in March 2010, growth in federal outlays has been below the long-term median. The year-over-year change in the 12-month moving total of federal receipts reached a nadir of minus 17.6% in November 2009. In March 2012, the year-over-year growth in the 12-month moving total of federal receipts was 5.4%. The median growth in the year-over-year 12-month moving total of federal receipts from December 1955 through March 2012 is 7.4%. Starting in September 2011, growth in federal receipts has been below the long-term median. It would appear that what accounts more for the persistence of large federal deficits is weak growth in receipts rather than strong growth in expenditures.

Post-April 30 email: Econtrarian@gmail.com

Paul Kasriel is the recipient of the 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for Blue Chip Forecasting Accuracy

by Paul Kasriel

The Northern Trust Company
Economic Research Department - Daily Global Commentary

Copyright © 2011 Paul Kasriel
Paul joined the economic research unit of The Northern Trust Company in 1986 as Vice President and Economist, being named Senior Vice President and Director of Economic Research in 2000. His economic and interest rate forecasts are used both internally and by clients. The accuracy of the Economic Research Department's forecasts has consistently been highly-ranked in the Blue Chip survey of about 50 forecasters over the years. To that point, Paul received the prestigious 2006 Lawrence R. Klein Award for having the most accurate economic forecast among the Blue Chip survey participants for the years 2002 through 2005.

The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of The Northern Trust Company. The Northern Trust Company does not warrant the accuracy or completeness of information contained herein, such information is subject to change and is not intended to influence your investment decisions.

Paul L. Kasriel Archive

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