Best Financial Markets Analysis Article The US market is one of very few trying to maintain a long term uptrend Bull cycle around the world. Most major world indices are in decline, only Germany and London are also trying to hang in of the major indices.

Will the rest of European problems continue to spillover and weigh down our markets in finally cause a flush? Or… will the US stay strong and lead higher amidst the turmoil?

The threat of debt repudiation resonates throughout Europe and has major headwinds for the Banking industries and otherwise… and it may be hard for the US market to gain much traction until we find out if there are any resolutions near term.

The Technical picture is mixed. The drop to 1292 from 1422 highs created a 38% fibonacci retracement of the October lows at 1074 and the March highs of 1422. This is typical for a 4th wave correction after 3 waves of rally. In addition, we had Mclellan Oscillators at extreme lows coming into this past week, investor sentiment running at multi month lows not seen since last summer, and many other oversold indicators.

This led to a 36 point bounce early in the week from 1292 to 1328, but it had trouble holding into the end of the week. I was looking for a strong close over 1322 to help confirm the downtrends lows were in place at 1292, but we did not get that just yet. Near term we have to see a very strong bounce this coming week over 1330 on a closing basis or the market will be at risk of a rising bearish wedge and then another large downleg to new lows since the 1422 highs. Therefore, Tuesday and Wednesday in my opinion will likely immediately tell us which way this market is about to go.

We have a few outlooks that are valid. One is that we had an ABC correction from 1422-1292 and we are in the early stages of a Major Wave 5 up bullish pattern. The other is we had 3 waves down, this is a 4th wave bounce, and a 5th wave to new lows on the move is next. Again, early in the week will be key in my opinion.

Below are two charts. One shows the Weekly SP 500 pattern and prior pivot points where downtrends halted and reversed. In each case the candlestick pattern for the week was inside and above the prior weeks lows and closed higher (White Candlesticks). This also happened this past week, but I again would like to see higher closing levels early in the week to confirm.

The other chart is a daily chart showing the 1330 barrier we would like to see crossed to avoid a rising bearish wedge pattern.

Join us at www.markettrendforecast.com and sign up for free weekly updates. Alternatively, you can use our 33% discount on that page to subscribe and receive 4-5 updates per week on US Markets, Gold, and Silver!

Dave Banister

CIO-Founder
Active Trading Partners, LLC
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
TheMarketTrendForecast.com

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com. David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (SafeHaven.Com, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.