No Central Bank Solutions: Liquidity vs Insolvency, Gold and Silver Renewed Vigor
Stock-Markets / Global Debt Crisis 2012 Sep 06, 2012 - 02:54 AM GMTBy: Jim_Willie_CB
The Hippocratic Oath dictates never to do harm to the patient. The central bankers instead take the Hypocritical Oath that dictates to cripple the patient, to drain the blood, to preserve power by tightening the straps, to erode buying power from hard work, and to render life savings a weak shell, while whispering lies in the ears on blame for what went badly wrong, against the background din of endorsed war themes. The effectiveness of the latter oath is seen in the systemic failure of the USEconomy, whose financial and economic structure has been destroyed by bad economic policy, the poor paper financial foundation from the monetary system, corrupt bond market practices marred by $trillion frauds, and a marriage between the state and sanctioned large corporations whose only efficiency is seen in dark corners protected by criminal impunity. The Fascist Business Model showed itself in bold terms in the 1990 decade, in the strengthened links between state and major corporations, where inefficiency, favoritism, and corruption produce the bitter fruit of a sclerotic financial structure and weakened body economic. The Gold price responds to the systemic failure of the ruinous financial and economic policy, aggravated by the devoted ghoulish doctors and their perverse solutions that neither fix anything nor attempt to apply remedy.
The Jackson Hole conference was another gathering of losers, stuck in apologist mode to explain their vast ongoing enduring failure. It has become an empty echo to the Davos Forum. This year, after two years of the drastic treatment reliant upon bond monetization (Quantitative Easing), the display revealed more vividly than in the past the gaggle of losers gone fishing. The Bernanke speech said nothing of substance, nothing. He is out of ideas, out of tools, out of credibility, holding a ruined balance sheet which will not be restored. The latest Bernanke stupidism is the continued bond monetization until a certain threshold of economic growth (GDP) is reached. These loser bankers do not even attempt legitimate solutions, choosing instead their usual fare to work toward power preservation whose schemes are marred by yet more paper mache covering of toxic sores. The financial markets look to clues on QE when it never ended, and thus its participants appear truly clueless. They appeal beseechingly like emaciated hound dogs seeking small food scraps from the fat bankers who never miss a $200 lunch, the tab always paid by the starving serfs and vassals that peer through the windows. In past years the Jackass was eager to hear the buzz from the conference, looking for choice morsels to indicate future direction. This year, a walk around the block to look at blossoms from the vibrant flora has been brought more satisfaction. Even EuroCB chief witch doctor Draghi decided not to attend the conference, perhaps unwilling to be tarnished by a broad inept banker brush, or to find himself impaled by a fishing hook.
The banker losers will continue to ply their trade, to print more money and avoid the Gold Standard. They will find ways to justify more propping of the giant insolvent banks, whose business model has been wrecked, whose balance sheets have been wrecked, whose executives live large despite the wreckage. The dangerous dastardly desperate concoctions with hidden derivative platforms and cables erected by the big banks in the 1990 and 2000 decades bought them more time, but did not avert the mutually assured destruction. The central bankers have no solutions. The Gold price responds to the systemic failure of the ruinous financial and economic policy, aggravated by the devoted ghoulish doctors and their perverse solutions that neither fix anything nor attempt to apply remedy.
MONETARY POLICY GONE ABSURD
Discussion of growth targets has turned absurd, since the recession is accelerating in speed. Discussion of bond buying shell game specifics has turned absurd, since the USFed has been buyer of over 80% of USGovt debt since 2010 during a foreign buyer strike. Discussion of inflation considerations and the ordinary deceptions has turned absurd, since the CPI has been over 7% or 8% for years on end. Discussion of the stimulative effects of 0% has turned absurd, since it is a giant wet blanket that shrinks profits and kills capital through retirement of equipment in unprofitable business enterprise. Current monetary policy assures a greater and faster economic decline, where GDP minimum limits will not be reached. Discussion of the benefits of more printed money has turned absurd, as the nation slowly becomes wise to the sham and counterfeit to wealth. If dispensed money is not earned, the hangover arrives the next year or next decade, whose tab is due now. Discussion of the urgently needed spending restrictions imposed upon the USCongress has turned absurd, since they are deadlocked and should be disbanded as an ineffective temple of beggars to banks and industry, whose main function has been to raise funds and win the next election. Discussion that relies upon keywords laced throughout commentary has turned absurd, since the entire vocabulary has suffered from propaganda in a vast dumbing down of the American people. The national hive is in its sunset and twilight phase, long past the point of remedy, due to two decades of ransacking the asset base and capital base. The nation no longer comprehends the basic concepts of capitalism. Instead it embraces socialism and carries out fascism against a constant drumbeat of war, which even features appearances of military symbols at signature sporting events. The Gold price responds to the systemic failure of the ruinous financial and economic policy, aggravated by the devoted ghoulish doctors and their perverse solutions that neither fix anything nor attempt to apply remedy.
The Euro Central Bank has announced its own vapid stupid pointless monetary policy to enforce a cap on sovereign bonds. The absurdity runs parallel with the inept US counterpart. The USFed will buy bonds until an economic growth level is attained, never to be attained. The EuroCB will buy bonds to prevent the sovereign bond yields from reaching a dangerous level, which will always be pressured. No bond market can claim legitimacy when an imposed limit is enforced on bond yields. Harken back to the USFed buying TIPS bonds, like icing down the thermometer that measures fever levels.
The failure is stark and clear. Monetary policy has gone amok. They have no solutions, so they press harder in the same reckless direction. What the world is witnessing is the official institutionalized ruin of sovereign bond markets in the United States and Europe, which serve as foundations for the USDollar and Euro currencies. Both currencies are doomed to the dustbin of history, all in time. Central bankers have lost all credibility, cornered without options in a public way. Central banker appear writhing flailing wiggling as they apologize for lack of solutions, while their integrity vanishes like an oily mist off an overused printing press. Central banks are presiding over wrecked bond markets, wrecked currency markets, and a divergence gold market (paper versus physical). They are at the helm of giant vessels, which are sinking from their own ordered liquidity measures, taking on water, unable to negotiate around icebergs.
NO SOLUTIONS PURSUED
No solutions are being pursued by the central bankers, their partners at the giant banks, and their subordinate henchmen that occupy key government posts. The path to remedy is not complicated. Liquidations must provide the foundation of solutions, not amplified liquidity. The broken structures cannot be puffed up. Rather they must be dissolved, something abhorrent to the ruling elite. No viable solutions are being pursued, only preservation of the power structure at all costs. Any valid meaningful legitimate remedy must begin with six important planks. My Jackass planks are simple. Nobody can deny a constructive theme to my harshly critical analysis. None of the six planks will be introduced, since all interfere, even collide, with the priorities of the syndicate. No options remain except valid solutions, which are becoming obvious. The following are the Jackass Planks to Valid Recovery.
- liquidate the big US banks
- liquidate the US housing market
- return factories to US shores
- reform the tax structure to lower corporate tax and to encourage factory return
- end the wars to secure oil and narcotics supply
- re-impose the Gold Standard.
They must liquidate the big banks, since they are insolvent entities that cannot function as either credit engines to the economy nor capital investment nurseries in which to nurture new formation of businesses. The big banks are vast constructions configured to speculate like casinos, loaded with structural cable lines long ago broken, designed to support the system, to compensate for past errors, and to cover their giant cracks and holes in supporting platforms. In 2006, the Jackass had a basic epiphany. The big banks would never be liquidated, since they control the power of the USGovt, especially after the key events in September 2001 when the control levers changed hands more formally to Wall Street firms. Leaders rarely ever relinquish power, especially when the corruption is deeply engrained. The entire liquidation process would let go of power in obvious ways, but it would also open the door for revelations of past criminal activity whose prosecution could not be prevented or controlled. The keys to the tainted kingdom remain part and parcel in the form of control of the USDollar printing press and USTreasury Bond complex. The breakdown of the Bretton Woods Gold Accord had a motive, to create new independent control of the USDollar printing press. It was coveted. It has been exploited. It will be preserved and defended at all costs, even if with wider war. The Gold price responds to the refusal to liquidate the big banks and the horrendous effects imposed on the USEconomy from a criminal zombie banking system impaired to serve as credit locomotives. The contaminated circulatory system will spread the cancer.
They must liquidate the housing inventory, both held by the big banks and by Fannie Mae vat under the USGovt aegis. No market ever recovers without clearing the inventory in an orderly process. This required step cannot be done either. The obvious outcome would be a housing market where home prices would plunge to 30% to 40% lower. The crippling effect to the USEconomy could set off a chain reaction where even lower prices could arrive, far below construction prices, long thought to serve as price floor. See Nevada and other locations, where home prices have been 25% to 35% below construction prices for over two years, in order to smash that thin veneer masquerading as theory. A relentless flood of inventory directed by the big banks would result in a yearlong nightmare. Their REO inventory of unsold homes seized by foreclosure is much larger than widely regarded or estimated, like 8 to 10 million homes. They use Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and the entire Federal Housing Admin channels to conceal the size of the problem.
A much bigger motive obstructs the liquidation, a deep criminality lodged in Fannie Mae itself. It has served for 20 years as the clearing house for federal fraud rings, often called the Role Programs. Not the least of criminal deeds was the theft from Fannie funds by presidents between 1988 and 2000 to the tune of $1.5 trillion, well documented by Catherine Fitts as auditor. Many records were lost in Oklahoma City during another mysterious event. Her work resulted in banishment and attempted murders via arsenic poison. She still kicks sand, but in more subtle manner. The liquidation of the housing market would expose a much broader fraud streak in the mortgage bonds, where bond fraud and counterfeit worked side by side. The practice of using one home's income stream from monthly payments in multiple bonds securitized to that stream would be exposed. The MERS title database has already been exposed in prima facie, but its deeper exposure would show the titles devoted to multiple mortgage bonds in obvious ways not desired by the bankers who designed the clever tool for speed and fraud efficiency. The Powers in office do not want a full disclosure of the vast Fannie Mae corruption that laces across two dozen federal offices and agencies. The Powers do not wish to expose much worse mortgage bond fraud, which might tempt millions of home owners to stop making monthly payments altogether. The Gold price responds to the refusal to liquidate the housing market and the horrendous effects imposed on the USEconomy from an archipelago of shell households impaired to participate. The long enduring consumerism chapter is coming to an end finally, as the home ATM card has been taken away.
They must bring back US factories from Asia. From the 1980 decade to a climax in the 2000 decade, the factories went eastward to find roots in Asia, all across Asia from Korea and Japan to Taiwan to Hong Kong to Singapore to Malaysia to Thailand, then lastly to China. The motive was simple, the lower cost labor, but also to avoid the union pressures on cost. The underlying factors are less simple. The trend of outsourcing industry to Asia stands as the most serious and lethal factor in the degradation of the USEconomy, manifested in the decline in real income, the growth of debt, and the newfound dependence upon asset inflation within the entire national system. By dispatching, forfeiting, and relocating factories to Asia, the USEconomy lost its core in legitimate income.
The deceased Kurt Richebacher in private conversations with the Jackass in August 2003 mentioned the key to survival of any economy. It must produce its own steel (for structures) and vehicles (for transportation). The US for two to three decades has not done either. The steel mills that have survived in small scale, given the name mini-mills. The car industry is dominated by Asia and Europe. The truck industry remains solid, although the components are often Asian and the small trucks are Asian. The point by the elder economic statesman was that industry must be domestically produced, with domestic income from production, in order for a domestic economy to flourish. The seminal event took place in 1984 for Intel, when it announcing a move of its production facilities to the Pacific Rim. It came as a shock, when at the time the Jackass was a viable peg in a marketing research outfit at Digital Equipment Corp in Maynard Massachusetts, the site of numerous wonderful memories. The following decades saw an army of high tech firms relocate manufacturing sites in the Pacific Rim. The Jackass had DEC mfg site clients in Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore, as well as Clonmel and Galway Ireland, with near weekly contact from the engineering staffs who implemented a quality control procedure. The Jackass creation became an engineering specification that saved DEC $70 to $80 million per year companywide, due to 28 sites that used it. Enough digression.
The offshoring and outsourcing trend continued in the 1990 decade, as almost every high tech and PC firm used Asian factories. For instance, the Apple i-Pods, i-Phones, i-Pads, and other products are manufactured for Apple by Foxconn, a Taiwan-based company. The firm's official name is Hon Hai Precision Industry Co. The Apple family of products are mostly manufactured in Shenzen China. However, Foxconn maintains factories in countries across the world including Thailand, Malaysia, the Czech Republic, South Korea, Singapore, and the Philippines. This is an American success story that does not involve value added by US workers, only US investors in the wildly successful stock. The Apple story is indicative as to the distortions within the USEconomy.
Unless and until much of the vast array of factories is returned to US shores, the USEconomy cannot recover. The nation needs the income. The experiment to rely upon the financial sector remains one of the greatest deceptions and tragedies to hit the nation. Legitimate income from work to add value in the building of things has been abandoned, except in the housing industry where it went completely insane in support of a grand destructive bubble. Imagine any sensible rational clear thinking economist in the 1960 or 1970 decade actually suggesting that the USEconomy should send its manufacturing base to Asia, then rely upon the rising prices of housing market assets for the consumption within the nation. The concept would be laughed out of any Economics Dept faculty gathering, in particular any defense of an indefensible doctoral thesis. That is what America did in a grand travesty. But it had many factors at work.
The USEconomy desperately requires the return of jobs from the factories sent to Asia. The nation clamors for job growth, but seems ignorant in an absurd display that the source of jobs is the same factories sent to China after 1999. The USEconomy urgently requires the legitimate income from industry. It is a glaring missing piece to any solution. Instead the drain of capital continues, which had its most spectacular display in the home equity extraction of funds to continue and perpetuate the consumer mentality of the nation, until the foreclosures hit critical levels. The households burned their furniture in a sense in order to keep spending, often on silly things like boats but also on essentials like education. The Gold price responds to the refusal to return value added industry and the horrendous effects imposed on the USEconomy from an entire system grossly dependent upon bad sources of funds. It continues to extract funds from assets, whether home equity or stock accounts or pension funds or business assets, or even government handouts. In fact, those handouts have come in a hidden sinister form, from tax rebates, clunker car rebates, home purchase rebates, or other absurd inept programs.
INSOLVENCY VERSUS LIQUIDITY
The battle for the minds of Americans continues in perverse fashion. The central bankers realize they fight engrained problems of insolvency with tools designed to provide vast liquidity. Imagine giving a steak & potatoes dinner with a side of cherry pie and a glass of milk chaser to a man who is dying of thirst. It has not worked. It does not work. It will not work. In their conferences, they struggle to justify the continued application of extreme liquidity treatment like utter morons, although increasingly recognized as futile. The newest wrinkle in the mad professor scheme is the continue bond purchase to reach a minimum GDP, given minimal details by Bernanke. The Jackass insists that his PhD degree be revoked, as he has proven in his five years as USFed Chairman that liquidity does not provide remedy to an insolvent system today, nor did it provide the basis for remedy to emerge from the Great Depression. Instead, as contradictory thesis to the vapid treatise that supports his PhD degree in revisionist history style, it was the Gold Standard that permitted emergence from the Great Depression. The absent standard nowadays makes impossible any recovery today, since the new money is like spinning the gears in a broken locomotive that heads over the cliff. The Gold Standard would enforce traction, along with industry long ago forfeited to Asia. The nation neither has sound money nor factory income. The artificially cheap money helps business to expand their overseas operations, which has been seen.
The twisted irony of the new gambit, more like a new plank in the propaganda platform, is that the continued ZIRP monetary policy assures a continued decline in the USEconomy. The stuck 0% interest rate attacks capital, increases costs, hurts profit margins, neglects savers, and slows economy, a grand wet blanket prescription for hyper monetary inflation as official policy in a veritable cyclone. The immediate effect of artificially cheap money is to increase investment in commodities as a hedge from the hyper inflation policy itself. The rising cost structure reduces profit margins. The affected business segments, whether entire businesses or elements to a corporate structure, must shut down, which retires capital equipment, cuts jobs, and discontinues income streams for the company and workers alike. Amazingly, the inept bungling maladroit collection of US economists are blind to this basic phenomenon of capital destruction. Greenspan was aware of it though. They were badly edumacated to be sure, taught by professors receiving grants and subsidies from the US Federal Reserve itself.
A vicious cycle has been institutionalized, dictated by ZIRP, the zero percent interest rate policy. The hapless clueless wayward USFed has decreed that bond monetization will continue until the USEconomy grows above some empty-headed decreed level. This is death by decree by a myopic professor whose doctoral degree is losing stock with each passing month of no recovery. If the 0% rate assured a slow erosion of capital, then the overall economy will continue to decline in large part from the artificially low interest rate. The effect of ZIRP is to guarantee a systemic failure if extended indefinitely, like it is now. Blame can be placed upon Europe, but in reality they are committing the same cardinal sin to price money as the United States and England. The universal culprit is central bank policy and the 0% mantra. It does not stimulate. It smothers capital and entire economies. The tragedy is that the nation, led by its devious bankers, no longer comprehends capitalism. Or else, their power goes at odds with capitalism since it is built upon fascism. The Gold price responds to the installation of hyper monetary inflation engines, the extreme dependence upon them, their amplified usage after previous failures in their application, and the absent comprehension of the extreme detrimental effect on capital. As Weimar features are kept in place, the Gold price will eventually be released when the funnels of printed money spew more freely into the system. As the big banks and central banks exhaust their supply of widget plugs (short-term USTBills, commercial paper, money market funds), the flow of new money will enter the Main Street economy. That time draws near.
PROGRESSION IN VULNERABLE PRIVATE ACCOUNTS
A Pearl Harbor event is coming. It is near. It can be smelled. To the alert and adept, it can be foreseen. Morgan Stanley has been the designated hitter on Interest Rate Swaps, taking on over 95% of the interest rate management risk by Wall Street banks. Their role appears to have set them up to fail, another Lehman-like black hole to exploit, their failure used to consolidate the last survivors of Wall Street, and to reveal the real power centers in JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs. The great awakening for the American public, in all likelihood in Western Europe also, will be the failure of major sprawling financial firms. Morgan Stanley will not fail alone. They will be joined, according to my best European banker source, by Deutsche Bank in Germany and by Credit Agricole in France. Expect more failures in London city.
A progression of private account vanishing acts is at work. The most vulnerable have been the futures brokerage accounts. Although private and segregated, these accounts were pilfered by MFGlobal and Peregrine Financial Group (PFG-Best). The US Appellate court sanctioned the private account pilferage with its blessing. Despite bankruptcy law being clear that private segregated accounts are last in line for dissolution, the courts permitted the brokerage houses to be treated as big financial firms instead, the private accounts rifled and stolen, put first in line for losses. They were not segregated, as stipulated by law. The US financial laws are being violated in ripe stark fashion, more climax bitter fruit of the Fascist Business Model tree and its ghoulish gardeners.
A Pearl Harbor is event coming, deemed inexorable, which will overcome the media empty messages that lacking warning. The US public population will not awaken unless and until hundreds of thousand of private accounts are stolen. The word RE-HYPOTHECATED has been added to the financial lexicon to replace the word STOLEN in clever style. Do not be fooled. Ordinary citizens cannot use their employer's offices and equipment as collateral in loans for second homes, children college tuition, private yachts, or swimming pools. That would be declared illegal. A home foreclosure would result in attached re-hypothecated losses to corporate office buildings and scores of computers and network devices. The thought is absurd and lunatic. But that is what happened with MFGlobal and PFG-Best.
An error was made in my last public article. If Morgan Stanley has over 17 thousand brokers at work, and they have an industry average of 200 private stock accounts per broker, the result is 3.5 million private accounts (not 350k accounts). The possible vanishing act in the wake of a Morgan Stanley failure and bankruptcy could lead to over 200 thousand, or 300 thousand, or 400 thousand private accounts going missing. You see, Wall Street needs your money. They are broke and desperate, given license to steal private accounts. The theft progression will be seen from private futures brokerage accounts, to private stock brokerage accounts, to private bank accounts and private certificates of deposit at banks. Credit unions will probably escape the damage, since privately administered and very conservative. Like with the progression of attacks on junk bonds, then mortgage bonds, then municipal bonds, then corporate bonds, finally sovereign government bonds, the losses appear according to ranked risks. The vanishing of several hundred thousand private stock accounts, that include 401k and IRA and Keough accounts, will awaken the US population. It is not desired, but like next autumn's hurricane, it can be both expected and forecasted.
MEGA-MESSAGES ON THE WALL
- Bankers know they are finished, and are cutting deals to avoid prison
- JPMorgan is losing control of the USTBond & Interest Rate Swap structures
- Every year another $1+ trillion in greater USGovt debt, more impossible to control
- Control structures are breaking down in accelerated fashion
- Anti-US$ campaign is unstoppable with trade partners worldwide signing accords
- An entire non-US$ system for trade is ready for installation, awaiting the collapse
- Some strange unexpected curve balls are coming, like the Fall of the Saudi regime
- A suspended Petro-Dollar defacto standard will cripple the USDollar
- Little comprehension that financial crises began with Bretton Woods and Vietnam War
- The destructive Fascist Business Model is in its final chapter, the climax
- Lost concept of US Constitution and clear language of Gold & Silver
- A major bank scandal is brewing, from illegal usage of Allocated Gold accounts.
GOLD & SILVER FIND RENEWED VIGOR
All hail August and September, the months to kick precious metals into gear. The year's bottom was seen in May around the $1550/oz level. The upward movement began at end July and early August. The momentum picked up in late August, and has gained additional vigor in early September. Rumors of a weakened JPMorgan monster have yet to come to light, or be seen in the gold price from their relaxed heavy hand. No limit of naked shorting gold futures is being enforced. The criminality of the currency regime is complete, total, and profound. However, the daily chart shows some new life in a rather impressive reversal in progress. It has much more to run. The $1700 level should be breached very soon with confidence. There might be no looking back. The ruined banks, the ruined sovereign bonds, the ruinous wars, the struggles with mine output, the splendid citizen demand, it all adds up to aggravated price structures pointing to higher prices. See the daily price pattern.
The constant hyper monetary inflation applied by the USFed, the EuroCB, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, and the Swiss National Bank, it adds up to aggravated price structures pointing to higher prices. The cracking global trade payment system, the frequent anti-US$ workarounds, and the eventual fall of the Petro-Dollar standard, it adds up to aggravated price structures pointing to higher prices. At hand is the end of a yearlong consolidation in price. Keep foremost in the mind that no solutions are being pursued. Many are cited, but they are mere ruses in an endless charade to preserve power. The banks control the USGovt, and the privilege to control the US Printing Pre$$ should never be lost sight of. Asian buyers are back, helping to build the floor in May, June, and July. Watch the current breakout, in an early phase. Tests of the $1780 level, if successful, will attract a lot of attention. The magnificent debasement and ruin of money is a committed path. As the elite preserve power, they must endure a massive upward thrust in gold. To be sure, Gold will respond, Silver also. By the time the Allocated Gold account banker scandal hits, the Gold price will have significant momentum to fly past $2000 and head to $5000. All in time.
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From subscribers and readers:
At least 30 recently on correct forecasts regarding the bailout parade, numerous nationalization deals such as for Fannie Mae and the grand Mortgage Rescue.
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by Jim Willie CB
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