While this week's decline in the SPY has given back about 60% of the Jan-Feb advance, let's notice that the decline in the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (NYSE: EWZ) gave back "only" about 40% of the prior advance. In addition, the form of the decline off of the November high at 87.67 into the 1/23 low at 64.00 has the look of a completed corrective leg. Although all of the action off of the January low could represent the start of a new bull phase, my sense and experience warn me that it probably represents something much less bullish?as in an intervening upleg that separates two bear phases.

What that means in English is that the EWZ is about to being a secondary climb towards last Friday's high at 78.33, which should be hurdled on the way to 81.00/30. Only a break of this morning's low at 72.11 will invalidate that scenario and point the EWZ towards 69.00 for a test of its rising 200 DMA prior to the anticipated secondary recovery upleg. From a big picture perspective, after the secondary upleg runs its course, I expect the EWZ to complete its intermediate-term bear-phase.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

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