Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

U.S. Presidential Election Doesn’t Matter to the Stock Market

Stock-Markets / Dow Theory Oct 18, 2012 - 12:43 PM GMT

By: Tim_Wood

Stock-Markets

As we have moved toward the election I have continued to hear talk that one candidate would be better for the market than the other.  I have also heard that the current administration is responsible for the market advance since 2009.  To say this and/or that this administration would therefore be good for the future of the market is like saying that we have had more sunny days since 2009 and that if the current administration is reelected then we will have more sunny days over the next 4 years. 


Fact is, it does not matter.  It is the anticipation and the unknown that concerns the market.  Once the election is behind us, the market is going to play out in accordance with the technical setup that continues to develop and evolve.  At present, that setup consists of a Dow theory primary bearish trend change that occurred in August 2011.  It also consists of a Dow theory non-confirmation that began forming back in February.  Also, in May both the Industrials and the Transports again closed below their previous secondary low points, which triggered yet another bearish primary trend change.  In doing so, this served to reconfirm the bearish primary trend change from August 2011.  Since then, the Industrials have moved to post-October 2011 highs while the non-confirmation with the Transports has continued to grow.   It seems that so few are aware or understand the seriousness of these ongoing developments.    Unless the outcome of the election can somehow mend this technical erosion, which based on the current evidence is not looking likely, then once the election is behind us, this “stealth setup” will continue to evolve.   Then, once the structural DNA Markers that have been seen at every major top since 1896 are confirmed, the die will then be cast and the outcome of the election is not going to matter as the ongoing technical setup will then play out.  

My basic point here is that the general public seems to believe that we can elect some politician to office and that just because he becomes the President of the United States he somehow has the ability to “fix” everything including the economy and stock market.   I’m telling you, he can’t.  In fact, it is because of the politicians and their belief that they can “fix” things that got us here in the first place.   To think that another administration or even the same administration can somehow “fix” this mess is a fairytale.  According to our Dow theory founding fathers, Dow theory is used as a “barometer of economic conditions.”  That said, the Dow theory developments have been and continue to warn of an economic storm.  In fact, it tells us that the economic storm never really passed.  Rather, it’s more like we have perhaps just been in the eye of the storm and in light of the current technical landscape round two is on the horizon.   Again, once the election is behind us and the DNA Markers appear, the election will become old news and who’s President is not going to matter as the technical forces will exert themselves. 

I have begun doing free audio market commentary that is available at www.cyclesman.net so please begin joining me there.  The October issue of Cycles News & Views has been released and in it I give detailed analysis of the current situation from a cyclical and a Dow theory perspective as well as a look at the currently applicable statistics and the DNA Markers. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views, which included Dow theory, a very detailed statistical based analysis covering not only the stock market, but the dollar, bonds, gold, silver, oil and gasoline along with short-term updates 3 times a week.

By Tim Wood

Cyclesman.com

© 2011 Cycles News & Views; All Rights Reserved

Tim Wood specialises in Dow Theory and Cycles Analysis - Should you be interested in analysis that provides intermediate-term turn points utilizing the Cycle Turn Indicator as well as coverage on the Dow theory, other price quantification methods and all the statistical data surrounding the 4-year cycle, then please visit www.cyclesman.com for more details. A subscription includes access to the monthly issues of Cycles News & Views covering the stock market, the dollar, bonds and gold. I also cover other areas of interest at important turn points such as gasoline, oil, silver, the XAU and recently I have even covered corn. I also provide updates 3 times a week plus additional weekend updates on the Cycle Turn Indicator on most all areas of concern. I also give specific expectations for turn points of the short, intermediate and longer-term cycles based on historical quantification.

Tim Wood Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in