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Stock Market at Risk of One More Leg Down in November

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2012 Nov 21, 2012 - 03:44 AM GMT

By: David_Banister

Stock-Markets

The SP 500 declined a perfect 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the summer rally from the 1267 lows to the 1474 highs. In our work we examine human behavioral patterns, sentiment, and Elliott Wave patterns to help with clues on market direction. To be sure, there is no such thing as a perfect technical analysis methodology, so we do our best to mix up a home cooked recipe for assistance in getting as close as we can to calling the pivots up and down.


In the near term, we notice the market has rallied out about 45 points off the 1344 pivot lows last week to around 1390 today. This retracement marks a normal 38.2% Fibonacci recovery of the most recent wave 3 decline to 1344. Typically, this is a wave 4 mini-bullish pattern as washout lows get bought and then shorts cover fueling the rally a bit higher. However, this is often when another sledgehammer comes out of left field and knocks the market down in what we would call a “Wave 5” decline to new lows on the downtrend.

Investors should watch both the 20 day moving average which is declining and around 1392 or so, and the 1388-1392 38% Fibonacci retracement areas for resistance. Only a strong close over 1392 can eliminate the potential for one more leg down to the 1316 areas on the SP 500 before the month of November comes to a close. With that said, we expect a rally in December for the markets and hope to see this barrier taken out soon, but would advise traders to tread with caution until such time.

Consider joining us at www.MarketTrendForecast.com for occasional free reports and or a 33% discount to join and get regularly daily forecast updates on the markets and precious metals that are outside the box.

Dave Banister

CIO-Founder
Active Trading Partners, LLC
www.ActiveTradingPartners.com
TheMarketTrendForecast.com

Dave Banister is the Chief Investment Strategist and commentator for ActiveTradingPartners.com.  David has written numerous market forecast articles on various sites (MarketOracle.co.uk, 321Gold.com, Gold-Eagle.com, TheStreet.Com etc. ) that have proven to be extremely accurate at major junctures.

© 2012 Copyright Dave Banister- All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


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