Doug Short writes: The S&P 500 charged from the opening gate, after having had an hour to consider the good news in today’s better than expected December Trade Balance report. The December improvement will likely lead to an upward revision to Q4 GDP in the Second Estimate. The index hit its intraday high about an hour after the open and then zigzagged in a narrow range to a closing gain of 0.57%, not far off the intraday high. Today’s performance salvaged the week, which logged a gain of 0.31% from last Friday, setting a new interim high.

Is the 1500 level now history? Today’s volume was rather scant, about 15% below the 50-day moving average. Is that a sign of slender conviction? Or was it traders’ distraction over the approaching winter storm Nemo? Here is a 15-minute view of the week.

Here is a two-hour chart since December 31st.

The S&P 500 is now up 6.43% for 2013. From a longer-term perspective, the index is 124.4% above the March 2009 closing low and 3.0% below the nominal all-time high of October 2007.

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

- Phil

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Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

© 2013 Copyright PhilStockWorld - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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