Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
UK Energy Firms Scamming Customers Out of Their Best Fixed Rate Gas Tariffs - 23rd Sep 21
Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Should School Children be Jabbed with Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine To Foster Herd Immunity? - UK - 23rd Sep 21
HOW TO SAVE MONEY ON CAR INSURANCE - 23rd Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
Trading Crude Oil ETFs in Foreign Currencies: What to Focus On - 22nd Sep 21
URGENT - Crypto-trader event - 'Bitcoin... back to $65,000?' - 22nd Sep 21
Stock Market Time to Buy the Dip? - 22nd Sep 21
US Dollar Bears Are Fresh Out of Honey Pots - 22nd Sep 21
MetaTrader 5 Features Every Trader Should Know - 22nd Sep 21
Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment, Tip of the Ice Berg in Financial Crisis 2.0 - 21st Sep 21
The Fed Is Playing The Biggest Game Of Chicken In History - 21st Sep 21
Focus on Stock Market Short-term Cycle - 21st Sep 21
Lands End Cornwall In VR360 - UK Holidays, Staycations - 21st Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September CRASH Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 20th Sep 21
Two Huge, Overlooked Drains on Global Silver Supplies - 20th Sep 21
Gold gets hammered but Copper fails to seize the moment - 20th Sep 21
New arms race and nuclear risks could spell End to the Asian Century - 20th Sep 21
Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Dow Trend Forecast 2021 Review - 19th Sep 21
Dow Forecasting Neural Nets, Crossing the Rubicon With Three High Risk Chinese Tech Stocks - 18th Sep 21
If Post-1971 Monetary System Is Bad, Why Isn’t Gold Higher? - 18th Sep 21
Stock Market Shaking Off the Taper Blues - 18th Sep 21
So... This Happened! One Crypto Goes From "Little-Known" -to- "Top 10" in 6 Weeks - 18th Sep 21
Why a Financial Markets "Panic" May Be Just Around the Corner - 18th Sep 21
An Update on the End of College… and a New Way to Profit - 16th Sep 21
What Kind of Support and Services Can Your Accountant Provide? Your Main Questions Answered - 16th Sep 21
Consistent performance makes waste a good place to buy stocks - 16th Sep 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecasting Neural Nets Pattern Recognition - 15th Sep 21
Eurozone Impact on Gold: The ECB and the Phantom Taper - 15th Sep 21
Fed To Taper into Weakening Economy - 15th Sep 21
Gold Miners: Last of the Summer Wine - 15th Sep 21
How does product development affect a company’s market value? - 15th Sep 21
Types of Investment Property to Become Familiar with - 15th Sep 21
Is This the "Kiss of Death" for the Stocks Bull Market? - 14th Sep 21
Where Are the Stock Market Fireworks? - 14th Sep 21
Play-To-Earn Cryptocurrency Games Gain More and Is Set to Expand - 14th Sep 21
The CashFX TAP Platform - Catering to Bull Investors and Bear Investors Alike - 14th Sep 21
Why every serious investor should be focused on blockchain technology - 13th Sep 21
SPX Base Projection Reached – End of the Line? - 13th Sep 21
There are diverse ways to finance the purchase of a car - 13th Sep 21
6 Tips For Wise Investment - 13th Sep 21 - Mark_Adan

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Commodities Sell Off, Though Natural Gas Bucks Trend

Commodities / Resources Investing Mar 05, 2008 - 01:24 AM GMT

By: Mike_Paulenoff

Commodities Best Financial Markets Analysis ArticleOil, gold, and the agricultural commodities are experiencing some serious selling pressure for a change, as reflected by the charts through Tuesday. First let's have a look at the DBA (Proshares Agricultural Commodity, ETF).


This is what I wrote about the DBA last Thursday: From my experience with near-vertical price moves, the DBA has arrived at the point of "the curve" that requires the price structure either to start a series of up-gaps in a classic blow-off move, or will have to consolidate and pullback prior to another upleg. As far as I am concerned, there is no middle ground. For the time being, key near-term support resides at 41.00, which if violated and sustained should trigger a nasty bout of long liquidation that presses the price structure towards 36.00-35.50. Conversely, an upside penetration of 43.50 could trigger the classic blow-off that frequently accompanies -- and the exhausts -- patterns that resemble the DBA.

Let's notice that the DBA price structure has plummeted (likely profit-taking in the aftermath of such an enormous advance), and is threatening key near-term support at 41.00, which if violated and sustained should trigger more long liquidation of entrenched holders of agricultural commodities -- that presses the DBA towards 38.00 next.

As for gold, in our 10 am posting to subscribers on Monday we discussed the powerful up-gap opening in the streetTRACKS Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD) and the fact that the GLD had hurdled the resistance line of its multi-month bullish price channel. We wrote: "This is very interesting action in the GLD -- to see if the up-gap up here can be preservedÅ [and] to see if the GLD can hold above its upper channel line (96.67) because usually a thrust above the upper channel concludes the underlying upleg."

Forward fast to Tuesday's action and what we find is that 1) yesterday's up-gap has been more than filled completely, and 2) the GLD has reversed significantly back below the upper channel line, thereby suggesting to me (technically) that indeed a significant near-term peak has been established at yesterday's high of 97.74. My initial downside target is 93.75 to 92.70 in the GLD.

Finally, looking at oil, crude oil prices were down on Tuesday; however, natural gas prices rose. Let's notice the difference between the patterns in the US Oil Fund (AMEX: USO) and US Natural Gas Fund (AMEX: UNG). The former has been in a roaring uptrend for the entire year, while the latter has just recently emerged into a powerful uptrend from the confines of a 7-month base pattern.

The USO pattern exhibits characteristics of an upleg that is peaking (or has peaked), while the UNG exhibits a pattern that is in the major thrust of its upside potential. It is with that in mind that I remain short the USO in our model portfolio and long the UNG.

Sign up for a free 15-day trial to Mike's ETF Trading Diary today.

By Mike Paulenoff

Mike Paulenoff is author of the MPTrader.com (www.mptrader.com) , a real-time diary of Mike Paulenoff's trading ideas and technical chart analysis of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) that track equity indices, metals, energy commodities, currencies, Treasuries, and other markets. It is for traders with a 3-30 day time horizon, who use the service for guidance on both specific trades as well as general market direction

© 2002-2008 MPTrader.com, an AdviceTrade publication.  All rights reserved. Any publication, distribution, retransmission or reproduction of information or data contained on this Web site without written consent from MPTrader is prohibited. See our disclaimer.

Mike Paulenoff Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in