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Stocks At New All Time Highs… But We’re All Poorer For It!

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Mar 07, 2013 - 03:40 PM GMT

By: Graham_Summers

Stock-Markets

Stocks hit a new high in the Dow yesterday. CNBC cheered and Fed economists everywhere patted each other on the back.

The unfortunate reality for this “success” is that it only works in nominal terms. A DOW at 14,296 vs. a DOW at 13,000 only means something if the rise in price occurs against low inflation. If inflation was 10% during the time period that this rise occurred, then you’ve not generated any actual wealth. At best you’ve maintained your purchasing power.


On that note, unfortunately for the Fed, real inflation in the US is nearly 10% today. Indeed, if you look at the economy the primary costs for consumers (food, energy, housing and healthcare) have been increasing dramatically.

FOOD-The severe drought that swept through much of the U.S. last year is continuing into 2013, threatening to cripple economic growth while forcing consumers to pay higher food prices.

“The drought will have a significant impact on prices, especially beef, pork and chicken,” said Ernie Gross, an economic professor at Creighton University and who studies farming issues.

Forecasts are for a four percent (price) increase in food this year, but I think that’s on the low side if the drought continues,” Gross said. “Food prices will likely be going up much more than the forecast.”

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100372886/Drought_Still_Plagues_US_Food_Prices_039Going_Up039

ENERGY-After sending consumers into sticker shock the past month, how much more can gasoline prices climb?

Another 20 to 50 cents a gallon — a level that could propel the cost of gasoline, now $3.77 a gallon, to all-time highs, some experts say.

Gasoline prices typically climb from February to Memorial Day on expectations of rising consumption and costlier summer-blend gas. But so far this year, prices are surging sooner and faster than ever before — up 47 cents since mid-January.

Consumers in some metropolitan areas, such as Southern California, are already paying nearly $5.20 a gallon, up more than 75 cents since December lows.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/nation/2013/02/19/2013-gasoline-prices-could-flirt-with-all-time-highs/1930681/

HOUSING-Home prices closed out 2012 with the biggest annual gain in more than six years while sales of new homes spiked in January, the latest sign that the long-suffering housing market was on the mend, data showed on Tuesday.

American consumers, meanwhile, grew more optimistic in February even as payroll taxes rose and about $85 billion worth of government spending cuts were due to take effect on March 1.

“The numbers are all pretty strong. It’s a significant rise in confidence and a strong rise in new homes sales — there is not really much to argue in those numbers,” said David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Ltd in New York.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/02/26/us-usa-economy-newhomes-idUSBRE91P0JF20130226

HEALTHCARE-Rapidly rising health insurance premiums and higher cost-sharing continue to strain the budgets of U.S. working families and employers. Analysis of state trends in private employer-based health insurance from 2003 to 2011 reveals that premiums for family coverage increased 62 percent across states—rising far faster than income for middle- and low-income families.

http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Publications/Issue-Briefs/2012/Dec/State-Trends-in-Premiums-and-Deductibles.aspx

A secondary issue to the rise in stock pries pertains to dividends. A little known fact is that dividends account for 60% of stocks gains historically… going back to 1900.

U.S. equities returned 6 percent a year on average since 1900, inflation-adjusted data compiled by the London Business School and Credit Suisse Group AG show. Take away dividends and the annual gain drops to 1.7 percent, compared with 2.1 percent for long-term Treasury bonds, according to the data.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a0lVup_0DDwI

Take away dividends, and stocks underperform even Treasuries. And inflation east away at dividends too. If a company pays you $1.00 last year, and then pays you $1.05 this year and inflation is over 5%, you’re not making more money. And if you use this new dividend to buy more overpriced stock which is rallying on the back of a falling Dollar… you’re not getting any richer… at all.

Checkmate, Fed. You’re spending over $100 million per day to create a grand illusion. Stocks are hitting new all time highs, but none of us are any richer for it.

This will end very badly. The Fed has set the stage for another Crash. And this time around its hands will be tied as it has used up all of its tools just creating this bubble. History has shown us time and again how money printing ends. It NEVER turns out well. There is not one example in history where it has.

So if you have not already taken steps to prepare for systemic failure, you NEED to do so NOW. We’re literally at most a few months, and very likely just a few weeks from the economy taking a massive downturn, potentially taking down the financial system with them. Think I’m joking? The Fed is pumping hundreds of BILLIONS of dollars into financial system right now trying to stop this from happening.

If you’re an individual investor (not a day trader) looking for the means of profiting from all of this… particularly the US going over the fiscal cliff… then you NEED to check out  my Private Wealth Advisory newsletter.

Click Here Now!!!

Graham Sumers

Chief Market Strategist

Good Investing!

http://gainspainscapital.com

PS. If you’re getting worried about the future of the stock market and have yet to take steps to prepare for the Second Round of the Financial Crisis… I highly suggest you download my FREE Special Report specifying exactly how to prepare for what’s to come.

I call it The Financial Crisis “Round Two” Survival Kit. And its 17 pages contain a wealth of information about portfolio protection, which investments to own and how to take out Catastrophe Insurance on the stock market (this “insurance” paid out triple digit gains in the Autumn of 2008).

Again, this is all 100% FREE. To pick up your copy today, got to http://www.gainspainscapital.com and click on FREE REPORTS.

Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a monthly investment advisory focusing on the most lucrative investment opportunities the financial markets have to offer. Graham understands the big picture from both a macro-economic and capital in/outflow perspective. He translates his understanding into finding trends and undervalued investment opportunities months before the markets catch on: the Private Wealth Advisory portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 three of the last five years, including a 7% return in 2008 vs. a 37% loss for the S&P 500.

Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s lived and performed research in Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and the United States.

© 2013 Copyright Graham Summers - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Graham Summers Archive

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