Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
How to Trade Binance Vanilla Options for the First Time on Bitcoin Crypto's - 2nd Aug 21
From vaccine inequality to economic apartheid - 2nd Aug 21
Stock Market Intermediate Top Reached - 2nd Aug 21
Gold at a Crossroads of Hawkish Fed and High Inflation - 2nd Aug 21
Bitcoin, Crypto Market Black Swans from Google to Obsolescence - 1st Aug 21
Gold Stocks Autumn Rally - 1st Aug 21
Earn Upto 6% Interest Rate on USD Cash Deposits with Binance Crypto Exchange USDC amd BUSD - 1st Aug 21
Vuze XR VR 3D Camera Takes Near 2 Minutes to Turn On, Buggy Firmware - 1st Aug 21
Sun EXPLODES! Goes SuperNova! Will Any planets Survive? Jupiter? Pluto? - 1st Aug 21
USDT is 9-11 for Central Banks the Bitcoin Black Swan - Tether Un-Stable Coin Ponzi Schemes! - 30th Jul 21
Behavior of Inflation and US Treasury Bond Yields Seems… Contradictory - 30th Jul 21
Gold and Silver Precious Metals Technical Analysis - 30th Jul 21
The Inadvertent Debt/Inflation Trap – Is It Time for the Stock Market To Face The Music? - 30th Jul 21
Fed Stocks Nothingburger, Dollar Lower, Focus on GDP, PCE - 30th Jul 21
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger - 29th Jul 21
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This - 29th Jul 21
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead? - 29th Jul 21
WEALTH INEQUALITY WASN'T BY HAPPENSTANCE! - 29th Jul 21
Waiting On Silver - 29th Jul 21
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets - 29th Jul 21
New set of Priorities needed for Unstoppable Global Warming - 29th Jul 21
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors - 28th Jul 21
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class - 28th Jul 21
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? - 28th Jul 21
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? - 28th Jul 21
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders - 28th Jul 21
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Will the Breakout in the USD Index Hurt Gold?

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 May 03, 2013 - 04:36 PM GMT

By: P_Radomski_CFA

Commodities

We haven’t touched on currencies for quite some time (our latest essay was dedicated entirely to gold: Gold Price in May 2013) now but last time we did, we mentioned the long-term breakout in the USD Index, which at that time was starting to take shape, but as the time wore on it became more and more significant. This is why in today’s essay we’ll focus mostly on the U.S. currency, review its current technical situation and its implications for gold and silver. Let us then jump straight into the chart analysis – we’ll start with the very long-term chart where the breakout is most clearly visible (charts courtesy by http://stockcharts.com.)


The index has actually confirmed a breakout above the very long-term resistance line. It has closed above it now for three consecutive months (yes, months). While a correction to the 80 level is still possible in the short term, an eventual move to the upside is now more likely than not. The closest target level seems to be slightly above 85 and although the 90 level could be in the cards as well, for now, we will focus on the first target level at this time.

The situation in the United States has not improved dramatically and the value of the dollar will have to go down eventually because of the massive amounts thereof that were created in the recent months and years. However, please remember that the USD Index is a weighted average of currency exchange rates, so if other currencies depreciate faster relative to tangible assets such as gold, the USD Index could actually rally. Another possibility is if the US situation is bad but it is worse everywhere else, the index could also rally. Anyway, the above chart suggests the USD index will move higher in the weeks ahead, though not necessarily immediately.

Let us move on to the medium term now.

In this chart, the picture is not as clear. The bearish head-and-shoulders formation could still be completed here, but the index would need to move below 79 and then hold this breakdown. If it moves above 84, the bearish pattern would be invalidated. Since the long-term picture is more important and carries greater weight than the medium and short-term outlooks, it is more probable that a rally will be seen, although this may not happen right away.

Finally, let’s zoom in even further and see how the short-term situation looks like.

In the short-term USD Index chart, we see that the index declined immediately after the cyclical turning point. A sharp move lower has been seen over the past few days, though this did reverse on an intra-day basis on Thursday (perhaps forex traders acted on the bullish 3-month confirmation of the long-term breakout). This could in fact be a reversal, as moves to the upside appear possible now. It is, however, a bit unclear at this time. What should have happened due to the bearish impact of the cyclical turning point has probably already been seen. All-in-all, the situation is unclear for the short term.

In the long-term Euro Index chart, we see that the index bottomed within our target area and then moved higher. What’s ahead for the Euro Index is a bit unclear right now. An analogy to previous patterns suggests a move to the upside here.

With respect to gold, previous similar Euro Index trading patterns (such as in late 2010) coincided with gold moving lower initially and then rallying strongly (note the decline in late 2010 and early 2011). It seems that gold could once again move lower before rallying significantly.

Now, let’s take a look at the intermarket correlations to see how the situation in currencies may translate into the precious metals market.

The Correlation Matrix is a tool which we have developed to analyze the impact of the currency markets and the general stock market upon the precious metals sector, (namely: gold correlations and silver correlations). The short-term impact on the precious metals by other markets has been very unclear. On a medium-term basis, the impact from the currency markets is negative. The final bottom for gold, silver and the mining stocks may very well be ahead. In the long run, the effect of these other markets is close to zero, and we expect the secular bull market for precious metals to continue even though the rally may not be seen right away.

Summing up, the long-term outlook for the USD Index is now bullish, and this could damage the precious metals markets, at least temporarily. The very long-term correlations between the dollar and the precious metals have been pretty non-existent. A medium-term impact will likely be seen however if the USD Index rallies (expect “there was no bull market in gold, only the bear market in the dollar which just ended” and similar comments – look at the non-USD gold chart for proof that there was much more to gold’s rally than dollar’s decline). The metals will probably respond negatively at first, and then go along with their main secular trend, which is to the upside.

To make sure that you are notified once the new features are implemented, and get immediate access to our free thoughts on the market, including information not available publicly, we urge you to sign up for our free gold investment newsletter. Sign up today and you'll also get free, 7-day access to the Premium Sections on our website, including valuable tools and charts dedicated to serious Precious Metals Investors and Traders along with our 14 best gold investment practices. It's free and you may unsubscribe at any time.

Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable week!

Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA

Founder, Editor-in-chief

Gold & Silver Investment & Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com

* * * * *

About Sunshine Profits

Sunshine Profits enables anyone to forecast market changes with a level of accuracy that was once only available to closed-door institutions. It provides free trial access to its best investment tools (including lists of best gold stocks and best silver stocks), proprietary gold & silver indicators, buy & sell signals, weekly newsletter, and more. Seeing is believing.

Disclaimer

All essays, research and information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities without notice.

Przemyslaw Radomski Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in