Stock Market New Intraday and Closing Highs

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The S&P 500 bolted from the blocks at the open, assisted by a good jobless claims report and reinforced by a surprisingly strong ISM Manufacturing update. The index opened at its intraday low, up 0.22%, and closed the day with a gain of 1.25%, just a bit off its 1.31% intraday high. Today’s rally was good enough to set all-time intraday and closing highs.

Incidentally, the first day of the month has had an excellent track record since the market trough in March 2009 with 35 gains and only 18 losses, a much better statistic than the 6:11 ratio of ups to downs after the October 2007 market peak to the 2009 trough. But what’s really interesting is that the absolute daily percent change for the first days of the month since the 2007 market peak. It has been an amazing 1.34%.

The US Treasury put today’s closing yield on the 10-year note at 2.74%, up 14 bps from yesterday’s close — a new interim closing high and the highest since August 2011. That’s 131 bps above the all-time closing low just over one year ago on July 25, which constitutes a 92% increase. It will be interesting to see if this trend continues.

Here’s a 15-minute look at the week so far.

The first day of the month rally came on so-so volume.

And the SPY ETF volume, which gives a better sense of retail trade participation, was 24% off its 50-day moving average.

The S&P 500 is now up 19.68% for 2013.

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

- Phil

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

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