Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Gold vs Cash in a Financial Crisis - Richard_Mills
2.Current Stock Market Rally Similarities To 1999 - Chris_Vermeulen
3.America See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - Part2 - James_Quinn
4.Stock Market Trend Forecast Outlook for 2020 - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Who Said Stock Market Traders and Investor are Emotional Right Now? - Chris_Vermeulen
6.Gold Upswing and Lessons from Gold Tops - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Economic Tribulation is Coming, and Here is Why - Michael_Pento
8.What to Expect in Our Next Recession/Depression? - Raymond_Matison
9.The Fed Celebrates While Americans Drown in Financial Despair - John_Mauldin
10.Hi-yo Silver Away! - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
AMAZON (AMZN) - Primary AI Tech Stock Investing 2020 and Beyond - Video - 21st Jan 20
What Do Fresh U.S. Economic Reports Imply for Gold? - 21st Jan 20
Corporate Earnings Setup Rally To Stock Market Peak - 21st Jan 20
Gold Price Trend Forecast 2020 - Part1 - 21st Jan 20
How to Write a Good Finance College Essay  - 21st Jan 20
Risks to Global Economy is Balanced: Stock Market upside limited short term - 20th Jan 20
How Digital Technology is Changing the Sports Betting Industry - 20th Jan 20
Is CEOs Reputation Management Essential? All You Must Know - 20th Jan 20
APPLE (AAPL) AI Tech Stocks Investing 2020 - 20th Jan 20
FOMO or FOPA or Au? - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market SP500 Kitchin Cycle Review - 20th Jan 20
Why Intel i7-4790k Devils Canyon CPU is STILL GOOD in 2020! - 20th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust Review - 19th Jan 20
Gold Trade Usage & Price Effect - 19th Jan 20
Stock Market Trend Forecast 2020 - Trend Analysis - Video - 19th Jan 20
Stock Trade-of-the-Week: Dorchester Minerals (DMLP) - 19th Jan 20
INTEL (INTC) Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 18th Jan 20
Gold Stocks Wavering - 18th Jan 20
Best Amazon iPhone Case Fits 6s, 7, 8 by Toovren Review - 18th Jan 20
1. GOOGLE (Alphabet) - Primary AI Tech Stock For Investing 2020 - 17th Jan 20
ERY Energy Bear Continues Basing Setup – Breakout Expected Near January 24th - 17th Jan 20
What Expiring Stock and Commodity Market Bubbles Look Like - 17th Jan 20
Platinum Breaks $1000 On Big Rally - What's Next Forecast - 17th Jan 20
Precious Metals Set to Keep Powering Ahead - 17th Jan 20
Stock Market and the US Presidential Election Cycle  - 16th Jan 20
Shifting Undercurrents In The US Stock Market - 16th Jan 20
America 2020 – YEAR OF LIVING DANGEROUSLY (PART TWO) - 16th Jan 20
Yes, China Is a Currency Manipulator – And the U.S. Banking System Is a Metals Manipulator - 16th Jan 20
MICROSOFT Stock Investing in AI Machine Intelligence Mega-trend 2020 and Beyond - 15th Jan 20
Silver Traders Big Trend Analysis – Part II - 15th Jan 20
Silver Short-Term Pullback Before Acceleration Higher - 15th Jan 20
Gold Overall Outlook Is 'Strongly Bullish' - 15th Jan 20
AMD is Killing Intel - Best CPU's For 2020! Ryzen 3900x, 3950x, 3960x Budget, to High End Systems - 15th Jan 20
The Importance Of Keeping Invoices Up To Date - 15th Jan 20
Stock Market Elliott Wave Analysis 2020 - 14th Jan 20
Walmart Has Made a Genius Move to Beat Amazon - 14th Jan 20
Deep State 2020 – A Year Of Living Dangerously! - 14th Jan 20
The End of College Is Near - 14th Jan 20
AI Stocks Investing 2020 to Profit from the Machine Intelligence Mega-trend - Video - 14th Jan 20
Stock Market Final Thrust - 14th Jan 20
British Pound GBP Trend Forecast Review - 13th Jan 20
Trumpism Stock Market and the crisis in American social equality - 13th Jan 20
Silver Investors Big Trend Analysis for – Part I - 13th Jan 20
Craig Hemke Gold & Silver 2020 Prediction, Slams Biased Gold Naysayers - 13th Jan 20

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Why Stock Market Could Go 50% Higher From Here

Stock-Markets / Stocks Bull Market Oct 08, 2013 - 12:00 PM GMT

By: DailyWealth


Dr. Steve Sjuggerud writes: Most people don't get the idea I'm about to share with you... or they're not willing to accept it.

However, it's 100% true...

The idea is that value is RELATIVE when it comes to investments. And this concept is hugely important today.

Once you understand this, you'll see how the stock market could soar 50% or more from here.

Nobody is saying that now. But I think you'll be hearing more talk like this soon...

Let me explain... starting with a question…

Does 10% interest on an FDIC-insured bank CD sound good to you?

Today, you would say, "Heck yeah!"

It sounds good because relative to all the other investments, a safe 10% in the bank is fantastic.

But what if it were 1981?

Back then, it would have been a bad deal...

In 1981, you could find plenty of other investments paying more than 10% interest. Bonds, bank CDs, and bank savings accounts were all paying 12%-plus interest.

Why would you accept 10% interest when you could get 12%-plus?

My point is, value is relative to what else is out there... And today, it's no contest... The value is in the stock market.

Look... You earn zero-percent interest in the bank. You earn less than 3% interest if you're willing to lend money to the government for 10 years (which I am not willing to do!). Yet stocks today have a forward "earnings yield" of 7%-plus.

"Earnings yield" is simply the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio reversed... It's the E/P ratio. The current forward P/E ratio is 13.7. The inverse of that is 7%.

We can use earnings yield to compare stocks apples-to-apples with other assets.

So what sounds best to you?

• 0% in the bank

• 3% in 10-year government bonds

• 7%-plus in stocks

Based on those three choices, the answer is obvious – you want your money in stocks. The relative value is just too good to pass up.

Comparing yields this way isn't perfect, of course. But it is a simple way to compare investments when you're looking for mispriced assets. And something is severely mispriced today...

Stocks shouldn't be offering a yield that's so much higher than bonds. Something has to happen to bring their yields closer together.

Either stocks need to soar (which would bring the earnings yield down) or government bonds need to crash (which would bring their yield up).

Let's say government bonds crash, causing interest rates to go from 2.6% to 5%. For stocks to have an earnings yield of 5%, they'd have to rise 50%.

Looking at it another way, if interest rates stay the same, stocks would have to more than double in value to push their earnings yield closer to what bonds are paying.

Remember, when it comes to investing, value is relative. And right now, when you size up financial assets, stocks win by a mile.

Good investing,


P.S. I think stocks have a long way to go from here… But eventually, we'll face another crash. If you had to start preparing yourself and your family for that crash… what would you do? What assets would you buy? No one can know the future with certainty... But a while back, I attended a closed-door meeting at the New York Stock Exchange... where details of the next stock market crash were revealed. For the full story, click here.

The DailyWealth Investment Philosophy: In a nutshell, my investment philosophy is this: Buy things of extraordinary value at a time when nobody else wants them. Then sell when people are willing to pay any price. You see, at DailyWealth, we believe most investors take way too much risk. Our mission is to show you how to avoid risky investments, and how to avoid what the average investor is doing. I believe that you can make a lot of money – and do it safely – by simply doing the opposite of what is most popular.

Customer Service: 1-888-261-2693 – Copyright 2013 Stansberry & Associates Investment Research. All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. This e-letter may only be used pursuant to the subscription agreement and any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Stansberry & Associates Investment Research, LLC. 1217 Saint Paul Street, Baltimore MD 21202

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Daily Wealth Archive

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules