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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

VIX - Trading Above the U.S. Debt Row

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Oct 10, 2013 - 12:16 PM GMT

By: Money_Morning

Stock-Markets

It's time to learn something all serious investors should know: how to trade the volatility index, the VIX.

While most investors are scrambling to figure out whether the market is headed up or down, savvy pros use the VIX both as means of protection and a source of profit.

The VIX not only gives you an idea of how uneasy people are about the markets... it tells you whether or not the markets have reached an extreme level of sentiment - either bullish or bearish.


That's why knowing how to trade the VIX is so essential.

But before we get into how to trade the VIX, we need to understand what the VIX actually is.

What the VIX Indicator Measures
Most investors think of the VIX simply as a "fear gauge." But the VIX doesn't measure actual stock market volatility.

In fact, experts view the VIX as possibly one of the best contrarian indicators in the business.

You see, the VIX tracks the trading in options on the S&P 500 to indicate how investors expect the market to move over the next 30 days.

For example, as investors buy more put options, they get more expensive and the VIX goes higher. Conversely, the reverse is also true: when investors sell options, they become cheaper and the VIX begins to fall.

The VIX then, is really a reflection of the price of calls and puts on the S&P 500.

It is quoted in percentage points and roughly translates to the expected annualized movement in the S&P 500 over the next 30 days. A VIX reading of 15 implies the S&P could swing higher or lower by 15% over the next 12 months, or about 4.33% over the next 30 days.

As a contrarian indicator, the VIX usually has an inverse relationship with the markets. When the market is rallying the VIX tends to drop; when the market is tanking the VIX tends to rise.

The scarier the broad market decline the higher the VIX tends to go - hence its reputation as the "fear gauge."

A VIX reading greater than 30 is generally associated with a large amount of volatility and uncertainty, while values below 20 generally reflect less stressful times. The index has a 20-year average of 20.43.

During the worst part of the 2008-2009 market collapse the VIX soared as high as 80.

Editor's Note: The next crash is upon us, and it's all been engineered by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke. To see what's coming and to not only survive but profit like the pros when it hits, click here.

The one question that continuously comes up regarding the VIX is this:

If there's fear in the marketplace - and traders are buying puts and their prices are increasing, and they are selling calls and their prices are decreasing - why don't the two cancel each other out and the VIX react less dramatically?

The answer comes in two parts.

First, "selling calls" is a hedge against falling stock prices. But when you sell calls against a position you hold, you only collect the "premium" or payment that you sold the calls for.

No matter how far the stock falls, your downside protection is limited to the money that you collected for selling the calls, meaning this hedge has limited value.

On the other hand, by "buying puts," you can hedge or profit from a steep-and-lengthy drop in the price of the underlying stock. Even more important, in a sell-off or outright panic, investors and traders are more inclined to buy puts as protection or as a speculative position without too much concern for the prices they have to pay.

That's why volatility spikes in fearful markets.

Buying Stock Market Insurance
Even though the VIX measures options trading, dealing with the VIX doesn't have to be complicated.

Think of the VIX as insurance for your investments. Like housing or car insurance, when an asset (stocks) you own is damaged or even destroyed, you are reimbursed.

What's even better with the VIX is that it can be used to not only protect your investments, but as a great profit tool as the market increases in volatility.

The key is knowing how and when to use the VIX. All you need is the right guidance.

Legendary hedge fund trader and Money Morning's Capital Waves Strategist, Shah Gilani, is a master at playing the VIX. On multiple occasions when the VIX traded below 15, Gilani warned investors to protect themselves against potential volatility.

"The low VIX creates an excellent opportunity for you to buy put protection at reasonable prices," Gilani said. "In the face of future unknowns, and as long as implied volatility is low, you should take advantage of cheap puts to add some portfolio protection ... just in case."

Investors who heeded his advice are glad they did.

Subscribers to Shah's Capital Wave Forecast locked in gains of 456%, 455%, 371%, and 197% on four of his recommendations involving the VIX.

How to Trade the VIX
There are a few options for investors who want to trade the VIX when market volatility surges.

And with the VIX still trading in the mid-teens, now is a great time to play the VIX.

"This is one time you can be very confident that an investment recommendation is going to pay off," Shah said. "Markets always go down. Fear always returns. There's always another crash."

It's only a matter of when.

The simplest approach to trade the VIX is through VIX futures-based exchange-traded notes (ETN) and exchange-traded funds (ETF), including the iPath S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXX) and S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN (NYSE: VXZ).

We like VXX the best, as it will surge more during periods of uncertainty.

VXX and VXZ are cheap to own and trade, and they make for a fairly good, simple alternative for investors looking to hedge their risks and protect their profits.

Any worries about the central bank tapering back on bond purchases, a realization that the bull market in stocks is over, or any news, like a government shutdown, that could cause stocks to fall is going to contribute to escalating levels of investor fear.

That's going to cause the VIX to spike - and the VXX and VXZ with it.

Another way to make money using the VIX is by hedging against market extremes.

One strategy is to buy puts when the VIX is low. By this you're making a bet that the market is overly bullish and near a top.

Most often, the movements in the VIX are inversely correlated to the S&P 500 and the market in general.

That means trading S&P 500-based products with plenty of liquidity.

When the VIX is high you can buy the S&P 500 SPDR (NYSE: SPY), an ETF that tracks the S&P 500.

And when the VIX is low (below 20), consider a number of leveraged inverse ETFs, including the ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 (NYSE: UPRO) and the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS).

For traders of the VIX, holding positions for big moves can sometimes be foolish. Until the VIX stops trading in narrow bands, traders should take smaller profits and be quicker on the trigger when their trades are in the black. Investors can always keep a deep out-of-the-money position in calls if they want a longer-term, investment-type play.

Although the VIX is a stock market volatility index, traders and investors need to understand that it's really no different than any other investment instrument - meaning that it, too, is vulnerable to structural changes and the dynamics of constantly moving market expectations.

You should always understand what's going on with the instruments you invest in and trade ... and avoid at all costs getting blindsided by moves that you could have anticipated.

Investors who want to trade the VIX should keep in mind that VIX-linked products are short-term trading tools for active traders who know the risks. That's why it never hurts to have the help of an experienced Wall Street professional.

Editor's Note: The VIX will soar as the next crisis unfolds. But making this one move will yield even more profits. Take a look. Your portfolio can't afford to get torched again.

Source :http://moneymorning.com/active-premiums/vix-report/

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