Four-Day Stock Market Rally Ends; Still Whistling in the Dark?

By: PhilStockWorld

Courtesy of Doug Short: The mainstream financial press attributes today?s market decline to the lack of a debt deal. And indeed the S&P 500 fell 0.71%. But with two days to go before the debt ceiling, the incompetence in Washington isn?t triggering that much reaction. Consider: The average intraday range in 2013 (change from low to high) is 0.90%. Today?s 0.71% loss occurred within a 0.93% range. Since the October 1st government shutdown, we?ve had three days with greater declines than today. Moreover, the S&P 500 is only 1.59% off its all-time high on September 18th and is up 0.98% since the shutdown began.

So, what’s really happening with US equities? Is the market confident that congress will deliver? Or does it believe there’s plenty of time to run for the exits in case of a true default and inevitable downgrades? Or is it simply whistling in the dark?

Here is a two-hour snapshot of trading since September 1st.

On a daily chart we see an increase in today’s volume, but it’s lower than the first two days of the four-day rally snapped by today’s loss.

The S&P 500 is now up 19.06% for 2013 and 1.59% below the all-time closing high of September 18.

For a better sense of how these declines figure into a larger historical context, here’s a long-term view of secular bull and bear markets in the S&P Composite since 1871.

- Phil

www.philstockworld.com

Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks). Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)

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