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Large Forex Speculators Cut US Dollar Bullish Bets to 7-month Low

Currencies / US Dollar Oct 27, 2013 - 10:43 AM GMT

By: Submissions


CountingPips writes: The weekly Commitments of Traders (COT) report, not published for close to a month due to the partial US government shutdown, was released on Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and showed that large futures traders & speculators continued to decrease their bullish bets of the US dollar for a third week in a row on October 1st.

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large International Monetary Market speculators, cut their overall US dollar long positions to a total of $692.8 million as of Tuesday October 1st. This was a decline of $-2.89 billion from the total long position of $3.58 billion that was registered on September 24th, according to data from Reuters that calculates this amount by the total of US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.

US dollar overall long positions, on October 1st, marked a new lowest level since February 12th when US dollar bets were bearish at a total of $-3.02 billion.

COT explanation: The weekly cot report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and non-reportable traders (usually small traders/speculators).

Individual Currencies Large Speculators Positions in Futures:

The large non-commercial net positions for each of the individual major currencies directly against the US dollar on October 1st showed weekly increases for the euro, British pound sterling, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Australian dollar, Mexican peso and the New Zealand dollar.

Individual Currency Charts:


Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: EuroFX

Date Large Trader Net Positions Weekly Change
08/27/2013 40081 3335
09/03/2013 22738 -17343
09/10/2013 12696 -10042
09/17/2013 31907 19211
09/24/2013 65844 33937
10/01/2013 68276 2432

British Pound Sterling:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Pound Sterling

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 -38226 1296
09/03/2013 -43046 -4820
09/10/2013 -38166 4880
09/17/2013 -6310 31856
09/24/2013 1174 7484
10/01/2013 1496 322

Japanese Yen:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Yen

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 -78353 -6632
09/03/2013 -79761 -1408
09/10/2013 -95066 -15305
09/17/2013 -88794 6272
09/24/2013 -92818 -4024
10/01/2013 -82324 10494

Swiss Franc:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: Franc

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 402 111
09/03/2013 1059 657
09/10/2013 420 -639
09/17/2013 616 196
09/24/2013 5745 5129
10/01/2013 6636 891

Canadian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: CAD

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 -24959 -15415
09/03/2013 -34639 -9680
09/10/2013 -30942 3697
09/17/2013 -18764 12178
09/24/2013 -5675 13089
10/01/2013 -955 4720

Australian Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: AUD

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 -71117 -7934
09/03/2013 -71506 -389
09/10/2013 -60032 11474
09/17/2013 -27360 32672
09/24/2013 -34819 -7459
10/01/2013 -28804 6015

New Zealand Dollar:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: NZD

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 252 -2138
09/03/2013 -797 -1049
09/10/2013 -601 196
09/17/2013 5657 6258
09/24/2013 8055 2398
10/01/2013 10891 2836

Mexican Peso:

Last Six Weeks of Large Trader Positions: MXN

Date Lg Trader Net Weekly Change
08/27/2013 7198 -28933
09/03/2013 688 -6510
09/10/2013 8279 7591
09/17/2013 -10201 -18480
09/24/2013 14023 24224
10/01/2013 14601 578

The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).

Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.

(The graphs overlay the forex spot closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.)

See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.

Article by

Copyright © 2013 CountingPips - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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