At the moment gold is at a critical crossroads. If it can move above $1375 it will confirm that an intermediate degree bottom occurred last month at $1251, and start a pattern of higher highs. If however gold continues lower and breaks below the $1251 level it will confirm that an intermediate degree decline is still in progress and the recent bounce was nothing more than another bull trap to work off the short-term oversold levels.

Spot Gold Daily Chart

Actually, based on my cycles analysis, I think we can even narrow the band a little tighter. If gold can move above the October 28 high at $1361 over the next several days it would confirm that this daily cycle has become right translated and complete a new pattern of higher highs and higher lows.

If however gold moves below Friday's half cycle low of $1305 it would confirm that the daily cycle has topped in a left translated manner and the odds would then be very high that the October low at $1251 is going to be broken over the next 2-3 weeks.

Spot Gold Daily Chart 2

Until one of these lines in the sand get broken, there is just no compelling reason to place a directional trade in the precious metals market.

More information is available in last night's report.

Toby Connor
Gold Scents

GoldScents is a financial blog focused on the analysis of the stock market and the secular gold bull market. Subscriptions to the premium service includes a daily and weekend market update emailed to subscribers. If you would like to be added to the email list that receives notice of new posts to GoldScents, or have questions,email Toby.

© 2013 Copyright Toby Connor - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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