But they didn't get it done. It looked good for them. They had the S&P 500 well below the 20-day exponential moving average, but they just couldn't keep it below far enough to give them some confidence going forward. The problem being each time the S&P 500 got to 30 RSI on the 60-minute short-term chart it bounced hard. The bears ultimately needing to keep the market oversold for an extended period of time to get that break down below the 20's and head lower with force. It shouldn't be hard, one would think, when markets get complacent, but the bears haven't been able to accomplish anything yet. You know they will in time because there's no other alternative. Sentiment will get unwound in time.

That said, the masses are trying to figure out when this all kicks in. Let's be honest, today felt like it after yesterday's action, but it wasn't to be the case. With the bears being unable to keep things oversold has hurt them. Now you wonder what they'll do tomorrow, since we have the huge Jobs Report on Friday pre-market. They may not be too anxious to step on the metal, because they've become so used to getting burned. A catalyst will kick in, but they may want to wait for it before trying to nail the bulls. Too many failures to try and do some front running. Can't blame them now can we! I surely wouldn't take the risk. Today, in the end, was another day of failure by the bears but at least they are trying harder now.

The bears are sinking. The bulls are rocking. The bears are barely above the lowest reading since 1987. 14.3 is not a number any bull wants to see. 57.1 on the bulls' reading is also not a pleasant one if you're very bullish on this market. The spread at 42.8 is brutally bearish. You never know when the selling will truly kick in, but that number stinks. No other word fits. It stinks and will have to go much lower in time, even if it rises a bit more first.

Fear will become part of this market in time. Fear means no upside of any sustainable kind for a long period of time, with some strong-selling episodes along the way. It doesn't feel possible, of course, at this time, but as sure as day turns to night there will be a time in the not so distant future when it feels as if the market will never go up again. When the selling kicks in the market will get annihilated. Margin debt is at all-time record levels. Be smart. Keep it light!!

1786 is the first level of support or the 20-day exponential moving average. 1775 is next. That's the breakout horizontal-price level. If that can get taken out, we start looking at 1754 or the 50-day exponential moving average. The bears need to take this one a slow step at a time. Get under 1786 and then move towards 1775. Nothing will be easy, but when it gets started, look out below. Some small long exposure is fine, but understand the risk. Again, the market is going to get crushed. Timing it is impossible.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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