Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Indicators to Turn Your Trust Back to Gold and Silver

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2013 Dec 12, 2013 - 12:28 PM GMT

By: DailyGainsLetter

Commodities

John Paul Whitefoot writes: Despite the wintry Arctic chill, the economic recovery is in full bloom. Or is it? Wages are stagnant, unemployment remains stubbornly high at seven percent, and consumer confidence remains tepid at best. The average American investor clearly isn’t enjoying the Wall Street perpetual momentum machine.


Are stocks fairly valued (i.e. cheap), and is the current momentum sustainable? If you consider the charts, it looks like well-heeled investors think the market is inexpensive; how else can you explain the current bull market marathon? This is after an increasingly larger number of companies on the S&P 500 warned about revenues and earnings.

In the third quarter, a record 83% of all S&P 500 companies revised their third-quarter earnings guidance lower. So far, 92 of the S&P 500 companies, or 89%, have already issued negative earnings guidance for the fourth quarter. In spite of the warnings, the markets continue to tread higher.

I’m not the first person to say you can’t beat the Fed; but this market proves it every day. Thanks to the Federal Reserve’s $85.0-billion-per-month easy money policy, the markets just go higher and higher.

So, are the markets fairly valued? Not if you think S&P 500 revenues and earnings are important. Over the last few years, companies have been doing a good job at cutting costs; in fact, corporate profits are at an all-time record high at 70% of GDP. (Source: “Corporate Profits Are At An All-Time Record Peak At 70% Of GDP,” Forbes web site, November 30, 2013.)

S&P 500 earnings are also being artificially inflated due to low corporate tax rates. While the top corporate tax rate is 35%, few companies pay that once deductions, credits, and loopholes are factored in. Thanks to a growing deficit, Washington will be looking for ways to generate cash, meaning the tax rate will most likely climb higher, which also means corporate profits will dip. (Source: “Corporate Taxpayers & Corporate Tax Dodgers 2008-2010,” Citizen for Tax Justice web site, November 2011.)

The near-record-low interest rate environment is also helping S&P 500 companies report deceptively solid numbers. According to one report, the low-interest-rate environment has helped boost corporate profits in the U.S. and U.K. by five percent in 2012 alone. At the same time, households in the U.S. and U.K. lost a combined $630 billion in net interest income. (Source: “QE and ultra-low interest rates: Distributional effects and risks,” McKinsey & Company web site, November 2013.)

Low interest rates mean companies can issue low-cost debt and use the proceeds to repurchase shares. By reducing the share count, organizations can inflate their earnings. More than 80%of the S&P 500 companies are currently employing this strategy, and at the fastest pace since the 1990s. (Source: Perlberg, S., “GOLDMAN: Here Are The 23 Best Stocks For Fat Dividends And Huge Buybacks,” Business Insider web site, October 10, 2013.)

As long as interest rates are artificially low, companies will continue to borrow and buy, especially when you consider that more than 40% of the yearly gain in earnings-per-share (EPS) growth by S&P 500 companies has come from share repurchase programs. (Source: Condon, B., “Narcissist's rally led by giant stock buybacks,” USA Today web site, May 18, 2013.)

With stocks going up irrationally, now might be the time to consider those precious metals that have been unfairly punished in step. When it comes to standing on its own, I trust gold and silver more than I do financially engineered stocks.

This article Three Indicators to Turn Your Trust Back to Precious Metals  was originally published at Daily gains Letter

Author Bio: John Whitefoot, BA, is an Editor at Lombardi Financial specializing in low-priced investment opportunities. Prior to joining Lombardi, John worked for eight years as the Senior Financial Editor of a leading online financial newsletter. Through his career, John has profiled over 1,000 low-priced stocks researching and covering numerous sectors including healthcare, media, manufacturing, IT, education, hospitality, natural resources, and retail. He's primarily a fundamental analyst who focuses on "off radar" situations with big upside potential for the individual investor. Add John Whitefoot to your Google+ circles

© 2013 Copyright Daily Gains Letter - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in