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Stock Market Cycle Top Amidst TNX and WTIC Signs for Deteriorating Economy

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2013 Dec 27, 2013 - 05:07 PM GMT

By: Anthony_Cherniawski

Stock-Markets

TNX is now over 3%. What a way to start the New Year!

ZeroHedge reports, “While a few media outlets had premature releases yesterday, Bloomberg data just confirmed that for the second time this year, 10Y US Treasury yields have crossed 3% (it was 3.005% in Sept 2013) breaking to the highest since July 2011(right before the yield collapse after the US debt-ceiling downgrade debacle). We are sure the media will proclaim this as 'proof' that the recovery is different this time, except the term structure continues to flatten (suggesting less faith in the future) and to spice things up 30Y mortgage rates have surged to 4.63% - almost the highest since May 2011 - but again, apparently, this won't affect the housing recovery either (even though mortgage apps are down two-thirds from their highs).”


Meanwhile WTIC just crossed $100.00. Notice the similarity between WTI and TNX?

Again, ZeroHedge comments, “As the 10Y broke solidly through 3.00% so precious metals began to move and after testing $20 in Silver overnight a few times, both gold and silver have just run stops through key levels and are jumping like Twitter (or Bitcoin) for a few minutes. WTI Crude has also just broke $100.”

This may change a lot of expectations for a recovery.

Gold is finishing a correction to its decline, which may resume today or Monday.

SPX appears to have broken its Ending Diagonal formation. Cycle Top support is at 1839.68 and the Orthodox Broadening Top trendline is at 1837.00. A break of these levels will suggest an aggressive SPX sell signal.

VIX is above its lower Triangle trendline. This is an initial sign of a reversal. Confirmation comes at the crossing of the 50-day moving average at 13.52. Trendline support may be tested before VIX makes a move above the 50-day moving average.

I don’t think that the NYSE Hi-Lo index will confirm the SPX sell signal today. I will report back when it does.

Regards,

Tony

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As a State Registered Investment Advisor, The Practical Investor (TPI) manages private client investment portfolios using a proprietary investment strategy created by Chief Investment Officer Tony Cherniawski. Throughout 2000-01, when many investors felt the pain of double digit market losses, TPI successfully navigated the choppy investment waters, creating a profit for our private investment clients. With a focus on preserving assets and capitalizing on opportunities, TPI clients benefited greatly from the TPI strategies, allowing them to stay on track with their life goals

Disclaimer: The content in this article is written for educational and informational purposes only.  There is no offer or recommendation to buy or sell any security and no information contained here should be interpreted or construed as investment advice. Do you own due diligence as the information in this article is the opinion of Anthony M. Cherniawski and subject to change without notice.

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