Most Popular
1. THE INFLATION MONSTER is Forecasting RECESSION - Nadeem_Walayat
2.Why APPLE Could CRASH the Stock Market! - Nadeem_Walayat
3.The Stocks Stealth BEAR Market - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Inflation, Commodities and Interest Rates : Paradigm Shifts in Macrotrends - Rambus_Chartology
5.Stock Market in the Eye of the Storm, Visualising AI Tech Stocks Buying Levels - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI Tech Stocks Earnings BloodBath Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
7.PPT HALTS STOCK MARKET CRASH ahead of Fed May Interest Rate Hike Meeting - Nadeem_Walayat
8.50 Small Cap Growth Stocks Analysis to CAPITALISE on the Stock Market Inflation -Nadeem_Walayat
9.WE HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO INVEST IN STOCKS AND HOUSING MARKET - Nadeem_Walayat
10.Apple and Microsoft Nuts Are About to CRACK and Send Stock Market Sharply Lower - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Where’s my self-driving car? - 16th Aug 22
Real Reason why Pakistan and India Gained Independence in 1947 at 75th Anniversary - 16th Aug 22
Electronic Payments Can Benefit Your Business - Here’s How - 16th Aug 22
Qualcom Stock Market Harbinger - 12th Aug 22
Apple Exec Gets World's 1st iPhone 14 for Daughters 14th Birthday Surprise Present Unboxing! - 12th Aug 22
Steps to remember while playing live roulette online - 12th Aug 22
China Bank Run Protests - Another Potential Tiananmen Square Massacre? - 11th Aug 22
Silver Coin Premiums – Another Collapse? - 11th Aug 22
Gold-to-Silver Ratio Heading Lower – Setup Like 1989-03 - 11th Aug 22
Severe Stocks Bear Market: Will You Be Among the Prepared 1.5%? - 11th Aug 22
There's a Hole in My Bucket Dear Liza, UK Summer Heatwave Plants Watering Problem Song - 11th Aug 22
Why PEAK INFLATION is a RED HERRING! Prepare for a Decade Long Cost of Living Crisis - 9th Aug 22
FREETRADE Want to LEND My Shares to Short Sellers! - 8th Aug 22
Stock Market Unclosed Gap - 8th Aug 22
The End Game for Silver Shenanigans... - 8th Aug 22er
WARNING Corsair MP600 NVME2 M2 SSD Are Prone to Failure Can Prevent Systems From Booting - 8th Aug 22
Elliott Waves: Your "Rhyme & Reason" to Mainstream Stock Market Opinions - 6th Aug 22
COST OF LIVING CRISIS NIGHTMARE - Expect High INFLATION for whole of this DECADE! - 6th Aug 22
WHY PEAK INFLATION RED HERRING - 5th Aug 22
Recession Is Good for Gold, but a Crisis Would Be Even Better - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Rallying On Slowly Thinning Air - 5th Aug 22
SILVER’S BAD BREAK - 5th Aug 22
Stock Market Trend Pattren 2022 Forecast Current State - 4th Aug 22
Should We Be Prepared For An Aggressive U.S. Fed In The Future? - 4th Aug 22
Will the S&P 500 Stock Market Index Go the Way of Meme Stocks? - 4th Aug 22
Stock Market Another Upswing Attempt - 4th Aug 22
What is our Real Economic and Financial Prognosis? - 4th Aug 22
The REAL Stocks Bear Market of 2022 - 3rd Aug 22
The ‘Wishful Thinking’ Fed Is Anything But ‘Neutral’ - 3rd Aug 22
Don’t Be Misled by Gold’s Recent Upswing - 3rd Aug 22
Aluminum, Copper, Zinc: The 3 Horsemen of the Upcoming "Econocalypse" - 31st July 22
Gold Stocks’ Rally Autumn 2022 - 31st July 22
US Fed Is Battling Excess Global Capital – Which Is Creating Inflation - 31st July 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Slow Start for Stocks 2014 - An Asset Manager`s Dilemma

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2014 Jan 12, 2014 - 06:10 PM GMT

By: EconMatters

Stock-Markets

The New Year has started and if you hadn`t noticed nobody is rushing in to buy everything that isn`t nailed down like last year where asset managers couldn`t wait from day 1 of 2013 to buy as much as possible.


Market Churn

Yes, the fed tapered a measly $10 Billion, but they still are pumping $75 Billion into markets each month, throw in the monthly 401kcontributions, and this market isn’t doing anything right now, even though the fed will still be around until this summer with artificial support.

Give me a Good Dip to Buy!

The conundrum for asset managers is that they need a good dip to buy! Otherwise considering the annual charade that is the holiday season in markets where traders, hedge funds and money managers yet to hit their goals push everything up while most of Wall Street is on vacation - these assets aren’t cheap!

Asset Managers risk buying at such elevated levels (priced for perfection) that any bad news can send them easily down 7% with a drop of the hat, and this is not how an asset manager wants to start off the year from a 7% hole.

No Cheap Bargains in Stocks

Everybody knows that there is nothing real cheap right now to buy; this is the reverse of an after Christmas retail sale where all kinds of items are marked down for clearing out inventory.

There are no after Christmas bargains here in Stock Land, and with signs the fed is contemplating leaving the party at some point in 2014, the usual fast start hasn`t happened this year.

Comparing this to the start of the last five years - the first four months of the year have been as close to a sure thing for asset managers to get off to a nice healthy start as one could possibly hope for from a market environment perspective.

Remember those Huge Buying Days from January 2013?

This year is notably different in tenor, and yes it is still relatively early with only two weeks gone in the New Year, but the juxtaposition to last year is something to take notes on.

I imagine when assets have fallen enough to provide some level of reassurance that asset managers can flip any new money on a rebound for 5% here and there, that this is what we are going to see in markets until the fed`s exit is a certainty.

Consequently expect a lot of market churning, selling off near tops, and then maybe a large buying of an early substantial dip in 2014, and finally taking markets to new highs one more time early this year before everyone heads for the exits and starts paying back the immense margin commitments they borrowed to take advantage of this fed ride to stock nirvana fantasyland.

Sell in May, and Go Away

My prediction is that IF the Fed continues to wind down asset purchases and is completely out of the market by august that whatever high mark is established by late April will be the high for the year in equities.

The run for the exits is going to be one of the most 'Colossal Clusterf**ks' of all time to put it bluntly, or as Lacker hinted at the other day in his speech, we aren’t too keen on popping this obvious bubble in equities with our eyes open.

This is some scary stuff folks and experienced asset managers know this feeling all too well. Do I hold my nose and just buy, or do I get out now and protect myself from the Fed inspired asset bubble that inevitablygets pricked?

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2013 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

EconMatters Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in