Crimea, Ukraine War, Czar Putin Tightening Grip Over Police State Russia for New Dynasty
Politics / Russia Mar 16, 2014 - 02:40 AM GMTBy: Nadeem_Walayat
The Crimean referendum at the point of several thousand Russian guns is typical of what to expect from a totalitarian police state as those that oppose don't vote out of fear whilst those that do vote have no choice but to vote for Russian annexation also out of fear of being labeled as un-patriotic based on propaganda of a mythical 'great' past under the Soviet Union when the truth is that the Soviet Union was a police state of the worst kind that held 99.9% of its population in the grip of perpetual terror of what the state could do to them if they did not obey.
Inevitable Ukraine Civil War
Crimea has already been annexed in all but name, South and East Ukraine are next on Putin's radar as Russian armies totaling more than 150,000 troops and heavy equipment have been building up on the borders for several weeks, ready to enter on an instigated pretext of defending Russian populations and likely will follow soon after todays (Sunday 16th March) Crimea Russia annexation referendum.
The people of Crimea have been given one of two choices in voting to -
a. declare independence from Ukraine
b. join Russia
So given the options available it is not surprising that most who do actually turn out to vote, have no choice but to vote for Russia, especially as the Crimean arm of the FSB, Russian states secret police have been busy distilling fear in the population as to what is likely to happen to anyone that shows dissent and does not back Russian annexation.
As I write there are reports that Russian military helicopters and troops have already started to deploy themselves out of Crimea and several kilometres into Ukraine who are likely preparing the ground for a full scale invasion in the days following the referendum by clearly aiming to seize areas of Ukraine so as to make Crimea a more viable state i.e. water supplies, power plants and the railway network.
My series of articles in the lead up to the Russian invasion of Crimea made it clear that Russian military intervention was inevitable and that Ukraine would be dismembered in three stages, starting with Crimea then soon followed by south east Ukraine.
21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK
What was unimaginable a few weeks ago has now become a crisis situation of mounting deaths, where with each death Ukraine takes a further step towards leaping over the edge of and into the abyss of where the likes of Syria stands today, as the consequence of what happens when nations rip themselves apart.
Ukraine tearing itself apart has huge implications for european stability as the conflict risks sparking unrest in bordering states most of which have their own separatists movements, especially Russia which therefore looks set to intervene militarily.
24 Feb 2014 - Scottish Independence Economic Consequences for England, UK, Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016?
UKRAINE 2014, BRITAIN 2016?
The real problem of Scottish Independence is as I have highlighted several times in recent articles is that it would open up a pandora's box that would encourage other parts of the UK to start their own separatist movements which would disrupt economic activity right across the UK, and that is the real danger of Scotland leaving the UK, and not its net economic impact on the UK.
Ukraine illustrates what tends to happen when countries start to tear themselves apart as peaceful demonstrations in Ukraine's capital city Kiev of barely a few weeks ago have fast descended into chaos towards outright civil war as several regions in the north-west such as Lviv declare independence, whilst the south-east stands behind its democratically elected President who fled the capital with loyal security forces barely 24 hours ago.
04 Mar 2014 - Czar Putin's Annexation of Crimea Ukraine, Lesson for Independent Scotland?
The ease to which the Russian military descended upon Crimea and several eastern parts of Ukraine reeks of pre-planning of several several weeks if not months. Therefore Russia is not just reacting to events in Kiev but will likely have orchestrated the whole build up including the events that saw the Berkut special police open fire on protestors in Kiev, as all part of Putin's plan for the dismemberment of Ukraine before Ukraine forms closer ties with the European Union, ultimately joining the EU and NATO.
Russia's invasion of Crimea which given the continuing build up on east Ukraine's border that is is said to number more than 150,000 troops and equipment will likely culminate in a wholesale invasion and land grab of approx 1/3rd of Ukrainian territory.
Meanwhile whilst we should always take western mainstream press reporting with a giant pinch of salt, nevertheless the degree to which RT (Russian Tyranny) News engages in newspeak is on a whole different level that wholesale swallows the vomit of lies that spew out Czar Putin's mouth in justification of the invasion of Ukraine, where NONE of Czar Putin's statements are backed by any facts on the ground.
The bottom line is that no one that appears on Russian Tyranny (RT) News has any credibility as they are effectively on the payroll of Czar Putin's propaganda ministry to pump out worthless garbage, be it the likes of Max Keiser pumping the Bitcoin crypto-scam in an attempt at under-mining the dollar or a myriad of RT News presenters justifying the invasion of Ukraine with bare faced lies.
Weak Western Sanctions of No Consequences to Russia
Meanwhile western politicians have been busy issuing the threat of weak sanctions such as making it more difficult to gain visa's or move money around the western capital markets. However it is inconceivable that anyone country in the west, even the American Empire would consider any sought of military action in the defence of Ukraine for the truth is the West (US, UK, France) only attack militarily weak states that have already been greatly diminished due to civil war and sanctions before the requisite 'shock and awe' air strikes ahead of ground invasions, especially as the West already knows which weapons the targeted nation has because they tend to have sold the weapons to them in the first place so know what and where to hit.
The fact is the current Russian invasion underway in Ukraine on the pretext of defending the Russian speaking / ethnic population whilst ILLEGAL still has greater moral authority than the US and UK invasions of the likes of Iraq and a myriad of other incursions across the world that tend to wholly be on the basis of outright LIES. So the west has NO moral high ground as the likes of George Bush and Tony Blair instead of facing trials for war crimes in the Hague are free to enjoy themselves as if the hundreds of thousands of dead Iraqi's don't count as human beings.
The bottom line is that the United States and its British and France Poodles squandered the advantages they had when the U.S. was a hyper power, instead they showed all tin pot dictators that International law does not matter and that the only thing they need to have is a few nuclear weapons and then they would be free to do whatever they want to, that is the lesson learned by not just Russia or China but all emerging nuclear states such as North Korea, Iran and Israel...
This is proving a very painful lesson for Ukraine that gave up its own Soviet era nuclear arsenal 20 years ago in exchange for what clearly was a worthless scrap of paper as the Russians are showing themselves to be the true neo-nazis who under the guise of propaganda seize territory Stalin / Hitler style.
Whilst the argument oftem heard is that all that Russia is doing is what the UK and US have already done countless times, as though that justifies anything where my opinion is that ALL of those responsible, Bush, Blair, Putin AND their thousands of henchmen should be standing trial for war crimes in the Hague. ALL OF THEM ! Perhaps even Obama, despite probably being the weakest U.S. President since 1776?
What Will Happen Next?
Where Russia is concerned if Crimea can breakaway from Ukraine then so should Chechnya be allowed to breakaway from Russia, for Chechnya was independant following the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, having successfully beaten the Russian army during the 1994-1996 war until the second Chechen war starting in 1999 that flattened the Capital city Grozny and most of the the rest of Chechnya into submission, killing about 17% of the Chechen population. That is what it means to attempt to gain Independence from Putin's Russia.
Therefore Russia's actions in Chechnya will likely act as a blueprint for what lies in store for much of Ukraine, it's capital will likely come to resemble the Grozny rubble of 10 years ago. For the truth is that Putin and his secret police henchmen could not careless about sanctions for they are immune from their consequences as they could not care less if the Russian people suffer. The Russian people too will have suffered far greater hardships in past decades than which a few billion dollars of sanctions will achieve.
All that sanctions will achieve is for Putin's regime to consider that now it has nothing to lose so will seek to redraw most of Russia's western borders with former Soviet states such as the Baltic nations, any neighbouring states with significant number of ethnic Russian's or Russian speakers will be on the target list.
As things stand it does not look as though the West is going to do anything to stop Russia from annexing Crimea which WILL set in motion the annexation of many more bordering regions far beyond that of Ukraine.
Russian Police State
The real goal of Czar Putin is to further enslave the people of Russia after more than a decade of repression that followed a decade of increasing freedoms in the wake of the collapse of the Soviet Union where slowly overtime all of those freedoms gained are being systematically whittled away as Czar Putin looks destined to go even a step further than the totalitarian Soviet state, as today his FSB henchmen have far more invasive technology on their side, all without the scrutiny of a quasi independant free press in the West. Therefore the real losers of the Ukraine war will be the Russian people as they will be increasingly living in FEAR of the state that can erase anyone at any time for any form of perceived dissent.
Russia appears destined to become one giant gulag under Czar Putin.
Russian Tyranny (RT) News Propaganda
The FSB's propaganda arm's such as RT News that infects may western nations airwaves with its relentless flawless english speaking soul selling presenters diatribe that magnifies western social problems whilst remaining blind to the far greater social crisis in the russian federal cesspit have been relentless in painting a propaganda picture in Ukraine of one of Neo Nazis having seized power in Kiev that the Russian people are being brainwashed with near 24 hours a day across all Russian broadcast channels where Russian presenters can literally be seen frothing at the mouth as they try to out do one another in an attempt to placate their FSB media monitors, lest they be perceived as not being patriotic enough.
Meanwhile many westerners enlightened by RT magnifying glass exposure of their own corrupt politicians have apparently let their guard down and have been taken in by RT Newspeak on the Ukrainian crisis by statements such as Crimea was once part of Russia, when the truth is that any nation can make the SAME claim about any neigbouring nations territory!
Just look at how Europe's borders have changed over the past 100 years let alone past 1000 years. Even the UK has seen the border between England and Scotland change numerous times over the past 1000 years, therefore England could a decade after Scottish Independence justify annexation of pro UK parts of Scotland in open revolt demanding their own local referendums to rejoin the UK, justified by referring to historic maps that show that at one time those areas had been a part of England, something that the SNP fanatics need to consider that Scotland rather than gaining independence instead could become a rump state of its present size.
Therefore once you open a Pandora's box of allowing regions to secede either by truly democratic means or Putin style at the barrel of about 10,000 guns, the consequences will be far beyond that which anyone can imagine at the time.
New Cold War?
In terms of wider consequences the clear risks are of another resources wasting cold war that could swallow several hundreds of extra billions of dollars spent on the military and state security apparatus each year that rather than protecting western citizens would seek to further enslave them.
Who Will be Next to be Annexed After Crimea, Ukraine ?
Putin's FSB henchmen statements that Russia reserves the right to defend Russian speaking peoples where ever they may be. Given that 20 million Russian's have already fled the Russian police state over the past 20 years then it means virtually any european nation could fall under the threat of such instigated actions, and not just those that neighbour Russia such as the Baltic states for several hundred's of thousands have settled in London, carving out enclaves of Russian speaking populations that just like Crimea could during the balkanisation of the UK following a vote for Scottish Independence prompt such declarations some 20 years down the road from Czar Putin's successors.
21 Feb 2014 - Ukraine 2014, Britain 2016, Scottish Independence Could Trigger Balkanisation of UK
The Balkanisation of Britain
Alex Salmond and his merry band of scottish nationalists quest for dominance over a small part of the Island of Britain have failed to calculate that they will no longer have Westminister to blame for this, that, or other latest socialist deficit spending induced crisis. Which implies that the first port of call for disintegration will likely be in Scotland itself, as a vote for Independence at best would only marginally carry more than 50% of the votes. Therefore the Scottish nationalist government would within a couple of years start to hear highly vocal demands from parts of Scotland to rejoin the United Kingdom, the refusal of which could trigger the start of civil conflict, which as we have seen in Ukraine and elsewhere that it does not take much for crisis to spiral out of control.
As for the rest of the UK, unfortunately Scotland attempting to tear itself away from the United Kingdom would set in motion a chain of events that would destabilise the whole Island of Britain as many separatist movements would be emboldened to exaggerate their own sense of injustice mostly based on semi-mythical histories and as remedy seek their own autonomous or even independent states, such as Wales, Cornwall, Mercia and off course heavily subsidised Northern Ireland.
Scottish independence would result in increasingly chaos across the Island, as growing civil unrest would spread as a contagion infecting many other regions of Britain.
The first consequences of the start of UK fragmentation would be in the economic arena as regions would seek to exert greater autonomy and thus increasingly implement differing rules and regulations that would disrupt economic activity that would further accelerate the breakup of the Union as regions would continuously become poorer thus blame others for their circumstances and see further separation as the solution.
The European Union fears this which is why senior EU politicians have been lining up one after another to state that contrary to SNP propaganda, an Independant Scotland would not be fast tracked into the EU, for they understand that just as a disintegrating Ukraine would destabilise the whole eastern european region so would a disintegrating UK destabilise many western EU nations such as Spain, France, Belgium and Italy all of whom have their own separatists movements.
It would be difficult, if not impossible, for Scotland to join the European Union - European commission president José Manuel Barroso
The bottom line is that Scottish Independence would open a Pandora's box that would result in a state of Britain that is far removed from the rose tinted glasses picture that the likes of the SNP are painting today, because the UK has always been MORE than the SUM of its parts. Therefore a fragmented UK will be far LESS in EVERY respects than that which the UK is today.
Putin's Family Dynasty
An ageing 61 year old Putin is laying the groundwork for a new Czarist family dynasty to take over the levers of the state security apparatus from where he will leave off when he eventually slips into darkness for eternity. Exactly who his children are is a closely guarded state secret much as we have seen in other dictatorships such as North Korea, where exactly who would succeed is a closely guarded secret unknown near the time of pass over of powers (funeral), and so it will be for Russia where in the final months of Czar 'Vlad' Putin's brutal reign we will start to see his successor emerge, probably an unknown nameless son who will follow in his fathers goose steps.
However what Vlad Putin fears is Russia's history of dealing with its Czars, therefore it is not a done deal that the Putin dynasty would last unless Czar Putin has completed the trend of creating a North Korean-esk police state for that is the only way his dynasty will survive, as dissent will not be an option else it risks replicating what is taking place in Syria today.
The bottom line is that annexation of Crimea will just be the start of an Russian east european border war that could last a decade. Wars without end are good for justifying an ever expanding police state.
The war is not meant to be won, it is meant to be continuous. Hierarchical society is only possible on the basis of poverty and ignorance. This new version is the past and no different past can ever have existed. In principle the war effort is always planned to keep society on the brink of starvation. The war is waged by the ruling group against its own subjects and its object is not the victory over either Eurasia or East Asia, but to keep the very structure of society intact. - George Orwell
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Nadeem Walayat
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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, stocks, housing market and interest rates. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.
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