Gold and The Ukraine Crisis

By: Clive_Maund

In this article we are going to look at what is going on in the Ukraine, because it has major implications well beyond its borders, and could have a significant impact on the price of gold and silver. We will examine this situation in a calm, detached and objective manner, as if we were visitors from another planet with no bias or stake in any outcome.

The Ukraine is clearly is great geopolitical importance, otherwise the US would not be taking such an active interest in what is going there. In order to assess how the Ukraine arrived at its present situation, and the future trends and dangers, we need to understand the motives and objectives of the protagonists - the parties who are, or who are close to fighting over it, namely the US and its allies, and Russia.

The Ukraine's strategic position on the SW flank of Russia...

The US elites and its allied Western elites are intent on global hegemony - there is no other explanation for the immense US military machine which reaches to the four corners of the earth, with its extensive network of military bases and aircraft carrier battle groups etc all over the world. US "defense" expenditure dwarfs that of the rest of the world put together. Why are they intent on global hegemony? - after all these elites are billionaires and have so much money they don't know what to do with what they already have. The key to understanding their motives is the realization that this is not about money or even about resources, like land or oil, it is about power and control, and in this respect they are simply following a long tradition that leads from characters like Genghis Khan through to Hitler, whose lust for power knew no limits. It is important to understand also that this is not just about power and control in the geographical sense, i.e. control over countries and territory, but control over every aspect of the lives of ordinary citizens everywhere.

"Do what we say - or else!" - projection of US military power is global, and bankrolled by the rest of the world as it swaps goods and services for piles of paper - dollars and Treasuries...

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Apart from the projection of military power, the other main plank of global control is economic, with the imposition of the dollar as the global reserve currency, and those who dispute this will quickly find themselves looking down the barrel of a gun, as happened literally with Saddam Hussein of Iraq and Colonel Gaddaffi of Libya, both of whom were attempting to sell their oil for currencies other than dollars. This can't happen with Russia and China, however, as they have nukes, so a more patient game has to be played with them. The dollar reserve currency system is what enables the US to effectively live off the rest of the world, as the world at large sells goods and services to the US in exchange for piles of intrinsically worthless fiat paper and Treasuries, which can be created by the trillion at the touch of a computer keyboard. This "free pass" is what pays for the enormous military machine and enables the US to run such huge careening deficits.

The only significant countries left in the world that are not in compliance with the plans of the Western elites are Iran, Russia and China. Iran has been "put on the back burner" for now and China, which will be a really tough nut to crack, is being left to last. Russia is in the firing line right now, targeted to be weakened stage by stage and then eventually controlled, perhaps by fomenting a revolution after domestic discontent has risen to a sufficient pitch. Early groundwork for dealing with China is being undertaken as this is being written, with Barack Obama in the Philippines right now discussing beefing up the US military presence there.

In this global chess game African countries are regarded as weak and largely irrelevant - pawns that can be taken at any time, the Palestinians have been marginalized in ghettoes, and the chubby-cheeked child dictator Kim Jon Um or whatever his name is, is left to run amok in his little fiefdom, which is presented in the media as an ever present threat for reasons of distraction and as a justification for big military expenditure, when if they wanted to, they could take him out in about 40 minutes. Actually it's rather entertaining to settle back in one's armchair and watch crowds of thousands of North Koreans on TV giving up their Sunday to make colored patterns and shapes, and doing the goosestep in the main square of Pyonyang - kind of like the Olympic opening ceremony, only they get to do it more often.

True democracy ceased to exist a long time ago in most Western countries, many of which of run by duopolistic 2 party systems that are controlled by the same elite masters, notable examples being the UK and the US, with fringe parties being allowed to take part in elections to give the illusion of democracy like the Tea Party in the US, some of whose members have realized - too late - that their country has been hijacked, and the Monster Raving Loony Party in the UK, which set out to do no more than mock the whole process. If any fringe party becomes a serious threat, it is set upon and savaged by the controlled media.

Too late to turn the clock back - the Tea Party in St Paul, Minnesota...

Photo by Maund

Taking politics to the next level, the Monster Raving Loony party in Britain...

The totality of control in Western societies has now reached such a level that those in power can basically do what they like, and the cowed population will accept it. Thus, when their giant sub-prime scam in the US came off the rails and big US banks were facing ruin, they simply claimed that they were "too big to fail" and looted the public treasury in the greatest act of Grand Larceny in the history of the world. As if that wasn't enough they then clamped interest rates at zero to create a carry trade gravy train for themselves, and leave savers with nothing. When the housing market collapsed thanks to their antics, they were able to asset strip the lower and middle classes by forcing them out of their homes at knockdown prices and then buying up vacant properties almost by the block, and turn round and rent them out to their hapless former owners -Carlton Sheets would be drooling. The middle and lower classes are now effectively farmed by the elites who control also every aspect of their lives - in Britain people often consider themselves to be privileged members of the middle class when they own an apartment that is not big enough to swing a cat in.

With respect to the media, most ordinary citizens and voters, who for the most part are ignorant and gullible, perhaps due to watching too many ball games and soaps, see the world through the lens that the mainstream media has fashioned for them, and so have their limited thought processes controlled and directed so that they become compliant servants of the system, their masters being the elites who control and direct the mainstream media. Thus, there is something tragi-comic about watching millions of sheep turn out to vote at election time, as if their vote will make an atom of difference. Even more pitiful are the naïve idealistic types who give up their time to go canvassing for the big parties. The internet is a threat as it promotes independent thought, but steps are being taken to control it, and at the end of the day those in power can simply pull the plug on it if they find it to be too much of a nuisance.

Once you grasp what is set out above it should be readily apparent why the Western media have turned their "Death Ray" on Russia in recent weeks, which has been set up as the new global bogeyman and pariah to be feared and hated, so that Western citizens will thoroughly approve of whatever measures governments decide to take against Russia, from sanctions to military action. We should also keep in mind that most of the Western elites in the position of greatest power are an age group which grew up with Russia as "The Enemy" in the form of the Soviet Union, and they can't get it out of their heads.

What is believed to have happened in the Ukraine is this; in pursuit of the long-term goal which is to weaken and neuter Russia until it falls under the control of Western Elites, a coup was instigated in order to install the current pro-Western anti-Russian puppet regime, which, had it retained control of the Crimea, would probably have attempted to shut down the Russian Black Sea fleet base there, and can be expected to cause problems with respect to the extensive Russian gas pipelines running through the Ukraine to Europe. Russia moved to protect its interests in the Crimea, where there are a lot of Russian speakers, by simply invading it. The big question now is whether it will take the risk of invading eastern Ukraine and in so doing invite the wrath of the Western Elites and NATO, which would involve sweeping sanctions, vilification in the controlled Western media and the placing of a vast array of missile batteries along the eastern borders of the new NATO territories in eastern Europe, in addition to what is already there. The coup in the Ukraine is the latest episode in a long rolling campaign towards World domination that moved up a gear following the "false flag" attacks on the World Trade Center in New York and the Pentagon, which quickly led to the already written Patriot Act landing on the desks on US congressmen with the simple instruction "Vote it through or you're a traitor" and provided the excuse to invade Afghanistan and Iraq, with the aim of subduing them and installing puppet governments, and after that the further subversion of the Arab world with the so-called "Arab Spring" that has toppled the governments of Egypt and Libya, with Assad's attempt to cling to power in the face in the effort to overthrow him leading to the complete destruction of Syria.

If Russia does decide to invade Ukraine the way to deter a Western military response is to threaten to nuke targets in Eastern Europe, but perhaps the most effective and pragmatic approach Russia can take towards defending its interests in the Ukraine is to hold off from a direct invasion, which would invite an overwhelming response, and instead engage in clandestine warfare using proxies and mercenaries, i.e. to use the same tactics the West used to foment the coup, the aim being to make eastern Ukraine ungovernable so the pro-Western government cannot establish full control and then become a threat to Russian interests. This is what it is already doing.

For those of you who are interested there is an astrological dimension to all these recent developments. There has been an extraordinarily tense and dangerous pattern of planets in the sky over the past couple of weeks, that reached maximum intensity just this past week. The pattern is an exact "Grand Cross" that has been given added impetus by the current pair of eclipses, the total eclipse of the moon nearly 2 weeks ago, and the annular eclipse of the Sun early next week. If Russia is going to invade Ukraine it will happen in the next few days, after that the danger should recede. This pattern is believed to be the most threatening that has occurred since the 2nd World War. It is shown below, it involves Mars which even the most astrologically illiterate know is associated with war, and Pluto, which relates to destruction and regeneration.

There was an almost identical pattern in the sky, an exact Grand Cross, involving Mars and Pluto and a pair of eclipses, at the time when Saddam invaded Kuwait in August 1990. The one now is considerably more dangerous as it also involves Jupiter (excess) and Uranus (the unpredictable). Saddam invaded Kuwait between the Lunar and Solar eclipse, and the Gulf War to kick him out actually started at the time of the next pair of eclipses about 6 months later. To any knowledgeable astrologer the chart for 6th August 1990 looked apocalyptic, and although this chart was centered on the Mid-East, and most places in the world suffered no direct effects, the effect on parts of the Mid-East was indeed apocalyptic, with the Iraqi army wiped out in a "turkey shoot" as it tried to retreat along the road to Basra, and Kuwait's oil wells blown up and left to burn, and had it not been for the exceptional skill and courage of the oilfield firefighters in the mold of Red Adair, the Kuwaiti oilfields might have burned for many months more or even years, causing untold environmental devastation, not to mention the waste of oil.

Although the Grand Cross currently in the sky will start to slowly ease away soon, and the danger of a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine probably pass after the eclipse of the Sun early next week, this dangerous pattern may have very serious long-term implications. Larry Edelson of Weiss Research, who has undertaken extensive studies of long-term (and short and medium-term) war cycles, has recently pointed out that there is a confluence of war cycles peaking in 2019, and that things can be expected to heat up considerably as we approach this date. Thus the frightful pattern that has formed in the sky over recent weeks may mark the time that future historians will look back upon as the point that the world started to tip into the abyss again - towards a 3rd World War. Who will Russia turn to as the pressure builds up? - to China of course, which must realize that once Russia falls, it will be next in the firing line. This, by the way, is the reason that China has been vastly increasing its military expenditure and its Space technology. Thus we can expect a military alliance between Russia and China to emerge in the years ahead, based on self-preservation.

What is going on now is truly a tragic irony, considering that this is the 100th anniversary of the start of the 1st World War. The 1st World War was started by a small cadre of elitists, literally a handful of people, who were quite happy to sacrifice millions of ordinary people in pursuit of their goals of more power and control. Ordinary people have no real understanding of geopolitics and are unaware that they are being manipulated, and you only have to appeal to their nationalistic tribalism, and you can get them to go off to war and get killed and maimed in their thousands, or even millions, and it will be just the same next time round if they are first correctly programmed with propaganda. Young men are the perfect fodder for war, because they have the twin attributes of being at the peak of physical fitness and knowing nothing about politics or what they are really fighting for. Thus you are now seeing the same kind of polarizing influences that occurred before the 1st World War and other major conflicts. The first is bankrupt governments teetering on the verge of collapse, looking to conjure up external enemies for the masses to focus their discontent on. Next is the setting up of the target country or countries through False Flag events and provocations, such as is happening with Russia now, then comes the demonization of those countries in the controlled media, also going on now - it doesn't matter how obvious the lie is, the public are so ignorant they'll believe anything, no matter how absurd, as Hitler said "The bigger the lie, the more it will be believed". Finally if they not able to overcome and subdue the target country or countries economically and politically, by sanctions for example, they go to war. With the kind of language that is being used against Russia already, it doesn't look like it will be all that long until the "Your Country needs YOU!" posters start going up in public places.

Looking at things briefly from another angle, World population is projected to grow to a staggering 11 billion people by 2050 (and you thought it was crowded now at 7 billion). This is unsustainable as it will put an impossible strain on the life support systems of the planet. This means that population growth is likely to be curbed by one of two things, and possibly both at the same time - a buckling of the world's agricultural and ecosystems, with ramped up droughts and flooding etc, or wars which cull the population. Given that the world's population is already estimated to be 3 times the sustainable level, there is certainly big trouble ahead - if humanity is not inclined to take control of itself voluntary and continues to breed like flies, then we can expect nature to eventually take over and do the job forcibly, and the results will not be pleasant. Scientists are desperately trying to "push the envelope" by creating "Frankenfoods" - genetically modified foods, partly to feed the growing population and partly to generate huge profits for corporations like Monsanto. Since they are in uncharted territory with this, the experiments could backfire and result in armies of mutant zombies roaming the planet like in some 50's horror movie - maybe they will spontaneously combust and instantly solve the world's population problem.

World population cannot continue to grow in this manner indefinitely...

There is some good news - scientists are already working on controlling the population, by creating genetically modified foods, that could result in large numbers of people spontaneously combusting, perhaps after passing through a zombie phase...

After this slightly longer than usual pre-amble, let's now look at the chart for gold in the light of the dangerous geopolitical developments detailed above.

On gold's shorter-term 8-month chart we can see that it is showing signs of having hit bottom. If Russia now invades eastern Ukraine, which is a significant risk through to the end of this coming week, then it is almost certain that gold will take off strongly higher from here. If not and it instead decides to destabilize eastern Ukraine further without going for an all-out invasion, gold technically looks set to go up from here anyway, perhaps for other reasons like a falling dollar. There were 2 days last week when it threatened to break down below an important support level, but bounced back on strong volume to close well off the day's lows. We can also see a "coiling" pattern in the Descending Triangle that has formed over the past few weeks, which implies that, contrary to what usually happens with Descending Triangles, the price is going to break out to the upside, and soon.

The long-term chart for gold still looks hopeful. On its 15-year chart we can see that it still looks like it is basing above its long-term uptrend line. However if this uptrend line fails, and the nearby important support at the lows of last June and December is breached, then gold is likely to drop back to the strong support in the $1000 area. Tactically the right way to handle this is to stay long, if long, and perhaps buy here, and either get out on stop if $1180 fails or hedge accordingly, as $1180 marks the lower boundary of the support at the intraday lows of last June.

By Clive Maund
CliveMaund.com

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© 2014 Clive Maund - The above represents the opinion and analysis of Mr. Maund, based on data available to him, at the time of writing. Mr. Maunds opinions are his own, and are not a recommendation or an offer to buy or sell securities. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Mr. Maund is an independent analyst who receives no compensation of any kind from any groups, individuals or corporations mentioned in his reports. As trading and investing in any financial markets may involve serious risk of loss, Mr. Maund recommends that you consult with a qualified investment advisor, one licensed by appropriate regulatory agencies in your legal jurisdiction and do your own due diligence and research when making any kind of a transaction with financial ramifications.

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