Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Investing in the METAVERSE Stocks Universe - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Expect 15-20% Returns For 2022 - 8th Dec 21
US Dollar Still Has the Green Light - 8th Dec 21
Stock Market Topping Process Roadmap - 8th Dec 21
The Lithium Breakthrough That Could Transform The Mining Industry - 8th Dec 21
VR and Gaming Becomes the Metaverse - 7th Dec 21
How to Read Your Smart Meter - Economy 7, Day and Night Rate Readings SMETS2 EDF - 7th Dec 21
For Profit or for Loss: 4 Tips for Selling ASX Shares - 7th Dec 21
INTEL Bargain Teck Stocks Trading at 15.5% Discount Sale - 7th Dec 21
US Bonds Yield Curve is not currently an inflationist’s friend - 7th Dec 21
Omicron COVID Variant-Possible Strong Stock Market INDU & TRAN Rally - 7th Dec 21
The New Tech That Could Take Tesla To $2 Trillion - 7th Dec 21
S&P 500 – Is a 5% Correction Enough? - 6th Dec 21
Global Stock Markets It’s Do-Or-Die Time - 6th Dec 21
Hawks Triumph, Doves Lose, Gold Bulls Cry! - 6th Dec 21
How Stock Investors Can Cash in on President Biden’s new Climate Plan - 6th Dec 21
The Lithium Tech That Could Send The EV Boom Into Overdrive - 6th Dec 21
How Stagflation Effects Stocks - 5th Dec 21
Bitcoin FLASH CRASH! Cryptos Blood Bath as Exchanges Run Stops, An Early Christmas Present for Some? - 5th Dec 21
TESCO Pre Omicron Panic Christmas Decorations Festive Shop 2021 - 5th Dec 21
Dow Stock Market Trend Forecast Into Mid 2022 - 4th Dec 21
INVESTING LESSON - Give your Portfolio Some Breathing Space - 4th Dec 21
Don’t Get Yourself Into a Bull Trap With Gold - 4th Dec 21
GOLD HAS LOTS OF POTENTIAL DOWNSIDE - 4th Dec 21
4 Tips To Help You Take Better Care Of Your Personal Finances- 4th Dec 21
What Is A Golden Cross Pattern In Trading? - 4th Dec 21
Bitcoin Price TRIGGER for Accumulating Into Alt Coins for 2022 Price Explosion - Part 2 - 3rd Dec 21
Stock Market Major Turning Point Taking Place - 3rd Dec 21
The Masters of the Universe and Gold - 3rd Dec 21
This simple Stock Market mindset shift could help you make millions - 3rd Dec 21
Will the Glasgow Summit (COP26) Affect Energy Prices? - 3rd Dec 21
Peloton 35% CRASH a Lesson of What Happens When One Over Pays for a Loss Making Growth Stock - 1st Dec 21
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: I Fear For Retirees For The Next 20 Years - 1st Dec 21 t
Will the Anointed Finanical Experts Get It Wrong Again? - 1st Dec 21
Main Differences Between the UK and Canadian Gaming Markets - 1st Dec 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The Nickel Supply Squeeze Is Just Getting Started

Commodities / Nickel May 28, 2014 - 04:02 PM GMT

By: Investment_U

Commodities

Back in January, I wrote a column explaining the supply-demand squeeze in nickel.

One way I suggested to play the nickel squeeze, the iPath Dow Jones-AIG Nickel Total Return Sub-Index ETN (NYSE: JJN), is up 38% from my recommendation.

Did you buy that fund? Well, if you didn't, there's no need to kick yourself.


The nickel run isn't over.

In fact, if anything, the supply/demand squeeze powering nickel's surge is likely to get stronger.

The biggest user of nickel is China. Nickel is used to make stainless steel, and China makes a lot of it. Stockpiles of nickel in China are falling. According to Deutsche Bank, China's nickel stockpile is now down to one month's supply, a drop of 26% in just a month.

A big supply crunch is coming for China.

What's more, the global nickel market will swing to a deficit of 132,200 tons next year from a surplus of 13,800 tons this year, according to Citigroup.

What will that do to prices? The price of nickel was recently $8.91 per pound, or $19,615 per metric ton. Citi forecasts nickel prices to rise to more than $30,000 per metric ton next year. That's a rise of more than 50%!

The Source of the Problem

Indonesia's ban on nickel ore exports has removed close to a third of the world's supply. Indonesia's raw nickel exports have gone to zero. Everybody thought there would be relief to this thanks to an election in April, but that didn't work out.

Now Indonesia says it is furiously building nickel smelters to fix the supply crunch. And that's a good idea, except for one thing: power.

The government is talking up the number of planned smelters. Two ferronickel and seven nickel-pig-iron smelters should be completed this year, according to the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry.

What's more, the ministry says as many as 63 smelters may be built by 2017, including 40 nickel plants, 10 iron ore smelters and four copper-cathode smelters.

However, many of these mines are scattered over Indonesia's 17,000 islands. How are they going to get power to all those new smelters?

I'll tell you how: They won't. The whole thing is pie in the sky.

According to an analysis from Standard & Poor's, smelters at new mines are horribly expensive and a drag on profitability.

"For a greenfield nickel smelter to be economical, capacity must be at least 10,000 or 15,000 tons of contained nickel per year," the S&P report said. "Such a smelter would require several hundred megawatts of electricity capacity and more than $1 billion in investment."

So maybe the Chinese will pony up money for the smelters. Are they going to pay for a power grid that can connect to outlying islands, too?

The Government Doesn't Care

Do you think any of this worries the Indonesian government? Ha!

Sure, lack of supply will put upward pressure on nickel prices. And nickel miners are being thrown out of work. But the fact is, the Indonesian government really doesn't care.

That's because it taxes finished nickel exports, and as the price of nickel goes higher, the taxes it collects will more than make up for what it formerly collected on nickel ore.

So why would the Indonesian government solve a problem that puts more money in its pockets?

Meanwhile, the price of nickel is going up and up and up.

Good investing,

Sean

P.S. As recently as 2005, America's energy industry faced the same sort of supply-demand crunch. But then came an incredible invention. Not only did it revolutionize an industry... it's still spawning overnight millionaires. To get my full take (with several profit opportunities) on the technology, click here.

Source: http://www.investmentu.com/article/detail/37689/nyse-jjn-nickel-supply-squeeze-starting

http://www.investmentu.com

Copyright © 1999 - 2014 by The Oxford Club, L.L.C All Rights Reserved. Protected by copyright laws of the United States and international treaties. Any reproduction, copying, or redistribution (electronic or otherwise, including on the world wide web), of content from this website, in whole or in part, is strictly prohibited without the express written permission of Investment U, Attn: Member Services , 105 West Monument Street, Baltimore, MD 21201 Email: CustomerService@InvestmentU.com

Disclaimer: Investment U Disclaimer: Nothing published by Investment U should be considered personalized investment advice. Although our employees may answer your general customer service questions, they are not licensed under securities laws to address your particular investment situation. No communication by our employees to you should be deemed as personalized investment advice. We expressly forbid our writers from having a financial interest in any security recommended to our readers. All of our employees and agents must wait 24 hours after on-line publication or 72 hours after the mailing of printed-only publication prior to following an initial recommendation. Any investments recommended by Investment U should be made only after consulting with your investment advisor and only after reviewing the prospectus or financial statements of the company.

Investment U Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in