Stock Market Cycles

By: Ed_Carlson

7 Year Cycle Highs

For several decades the Dow has exhibited a cycle of seven years between highs. It has been as short as six years and, on one occasion, it stretched closer to eight years. All cycle highs matched the highs of Lindsay's basic cycles. The previous cycle high was in Oct 2007 and which makes a cycle high due now. The high should be point H of Lindsay's long cycle. Past experience implies it could come as late as Oct 2015 but a six-year cycle low makes that very unlikely.

6 Year Cycle Lows

In addition to 7year cycle highs, the market seems to make a low every six years. The next 6year low is due in mid-2015.

As the high in 1973 shows, in secular bear long cycles this cycle has pointed to highs rather than lows. Although Lindsay had nothing to say about these cycles, this phenomenon can be tracked on Lindsay's long cycle charts all the way back to 1798. If the Dow has been in a secular bear cycle since 2002 as expected, the cycle should be pointing to the same high as the 7year cycle. If the Dow is in a secular bull cycle, a low is due in 2015. Either way, cycles are now pointing to a top in the Dow.

6 Year Cycle Lows

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Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2014 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

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