Immigration Crisis General Election 2015, Voters Punish Conservatives and Labour with Another Hung Parliament

By: Nadeem_Walayat

A study by the University of Oxford concludes that England's migrant population has increased by 565,000 over the past 3 years of which 2/3rds are from the EU. However, in my opinion Oxford University grossly under estimates the number of immigrants as illustrated by the most recent ONS statistics which show a near 300,000 net migration to the UK over just one year, where the total over the past 3 years is near 750,000. So in reality the probable actual increase in migrant population of England and Wales is likely to be about 1/3rd higher than the Oxford University guesstimate.

The study also reports that some 8 million foreign born people now reside in England, where the greatest concentration is in London (3.2 million), and immigration hotspots right across England including the South East 1.1 million, East 700k, North West 625k, West Midlands 500k, York's & Humb 515k, and the East Midlands 495k. Clearly London has the largest foreign born population concentration at 3.2 million, approaching 40% of the cities population and with the South East accounts for 50% of the increase in immigrant populations of the past 3 years

However, here the fatal flaw is NOT taking into account the ILLEGAL immigrant population of approx 800k and including ONS data is likely to be 1 million higher therefore totaling at least 9 million or at least 15.5% of England's population against just 13.4% 3 years ago (2011 census), an huge increase in just 3 years in what is an accelerating trend as the census data for England and Wales from the preceding years illustrates.

England and Waves Census and ONS Data, Market Oracle Forecast

The bottom line is that Britain's immigration crisis is ACCELERATING and is EXPONENTIAL as my recent article covered the failure of first of the last Labour government that appears to have had an hidden mass immigration agenda of importing nearly 4 million low paid on tax credit benefits with dependants Labour voting vested interests into the country and then the failure of the Conservative Coalition to do anything to control what remains out of control immigration. And remember that the official statistics do not include illegal immigrants totaling at least 800,000, which the Market Oracle Forecasts Include.

26 Feb 2015 - Will Conservatives Out of Control Immigration Crisis Boost UKIP Election 2015 Prospects?

The latest immigration statistics out of the ONS once more illustrate the magnitude of the ConDem Coalition governments failure to control immigration where to all intents and purposes the past 5 years have just marked a continuation of the Labour catastrophe that set in motion a mega-trend for a 15 year long surge in net immigration of well over over 3 million people, where approx 90% of the adults were expected to vote Labour.

The facts to date illustrate that David Cameron just CANNOT be trusted on immigration, for his party in government has repeatedly FAILED in virtually EVERY IMMIGRATION PROMISE made as when David Cameron took power in 2010 he promised that he would cut net immigration towards the end of the parliament to the tens of thousands from the then disastrous annual figure of 205,000, instead the latest data from the ONS shows that net immigration has continued to SOAR to a level far higher level even than in 2010 to now stand at 298,000, near 1/3rd higher.

"Overall, net immigration would be kept in the tens of thousands, rather than the current rate of hundreds of thousands”. - David Cameron 2010

Furthermore the net out of control immigration trend is ACCELERATING as 298,00 in the year to Sept 2014 is up from the 260,000 in the year to June 2014, and up near 50% on the year earlier of 182,000 (June 2013). As 624,000 people flooded into the UK in the year ending September 2014, compared to 530,000 in the previous year which is set against emigration of 327,000 in the year ending September 2014 compared to 320,000 in the previous year.

The following chart illustrates the magnitude of the Conservatives failure to control immigration which shows that the brief dip in immigration soon evaporated as the UK economy started to recover that now results in immigration at levels exceeding that of under the last Labour government

UK General Election Forecast 2015

The opinion polls are clearly signaling huge mistrust amongst the electorate for both major parties as voters are not blind to what has been taking place in their towns and cities and thus trust neither major party to form the next government, instead the polls imply convergence towards a truly messy unstable 3 party coalition where the minor party will disproportionately wag the dog, be it the SNP tail to the Labour dog or the UKIP tail to the Conservative dog government for probably no longer than a year before such a government disintegrates.

In terms of what I actually see as the most probable outcome for the general election, I refer to my recent in-depth analysis that concluded in the following detailed seats per party forecast:

• 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 Seats Forecast - Who Will Win?
• 28 Feb 2015 - UK General Election 2015 - Forecasting Seats for SNP, LIb-Dems, UKIP and Others

UK General Election May 2015 Forecast Conclusion

My forecast conclusion is for the Conservatives to win 296 seats at the May 7th general election, Labour 2nd on 262 seats, with the full seats per political party breakdown as follows:

Therefore the most probable outcome is for a continuation of the ConDem Coalition government on 326 seats (296+30) where any shortfall would likely find support from the DUP's 8 seats.

The alternative is for a truly messy Lab-Lib SNP supported chaotic government on 327 seats (262+30+35) which in my opinion would be a truly disastrous outcome for Britain, nearly as bad as if Scotland had voted for independence last September.

Another possibility is that should the Conservatives do better than forecast i.e. secure over 300 seats but still fail to win an overall majority, then they may chose to go it alone with the plan to work towards winning a May 2016 general election.

The bottom line is that the opinion polls do not reflect how people will actually vote on May 7th when they are faced with a stark choice of steady as she goes ConDem government or take a huge gamble on Ed Milliband's Labour party. So in my opinion several millions of voters will chose to play it safe with ConDem which thus is the most probable outcome.

Also available a youtube video version of my forecast:

The bottom line is that continuing out of control immigration is not by accident but by design of the last Labour government that during their term in office succeeded in importing over 3 million vested interest Labour voters, whilst signing up to treaties that sabotaged the ability of future governments to bring immigration under control.

To imagine that the next weak Labour or Conservative government will be able to control immigration is delusional, especially as Czar Putin's antics in Ukraine ensure a new flood of ILLEGAL eastern european migration is under way with Ukraine the epicentre, let alone LEGAL migration from states on Russia's long border with the EU.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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