Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

European War Games: Responses to Russian Military Drills

Politics / GeoPolitics May 07, 2015 - 02:22 PM GMT

By: STRATFOR

Politics

Several events have coincided to demonstrate the dynamic, if not guarded, relationship between Russia and the Nordic and Baltic states. Ten NATO countries and Sweden launched a two-week planned exercise in the North Sea on May 4 to improve their anti-submarine warfare capabilities. On the same day, Finland — not a NATO member — began mailing letters to about 900,000 reservists informing them of their roles in a potential crisis situation. Meanwhile, Sweden's Foreign Ministry formally complained to Russian authorities that Russian navy ships were disrupting cable-laying work in waters between Sweden and Lithuania, the latest in a series of formal complaints over Russia's activity in the area. Concurrently, the Swedish and Lithuanian foreign ministers met with Moldova's pro-West leaders in Chisinau.


All of these events confirm that the Nordic and Baltic states are working to boost security cooperation in response to Russia's military activity in the region. Consequently, the security buildup will continue — on both sides.

Analysis

Russian military activity, especially flights, along NATO's borders has increased in past months. In March, Russian military activity in the Black Sea, Baltic Sea and along the Finnish border spiked as part of snap drills simulating a full-scale confrontation with the West. The exercises were not so much a direct threat to the region as a colossal demonstration of Russian capability against NATO and other regional powers, particularly Baltic and Nordic countries.

Russia consistently pushes security boundaries in the region as a show of power. On May 3, Latvia's military reported that two Russian naval ships and a Russian submarine were located 5.2 nautical miles from Latvian territorial waters in the Baltic Sea, only the latest in a series of similar incidents over the past few months. Similarly, on April 28, Finland's navy fired grenade-size underwater charges at shallow depth as a warning to a suspected foreign submarine reportedly located in waters near Helsinki. In October 2014, Sweden's military conducted a large-scale search for a suspected foreign submarine near Stockholm.

Russian activity in waters near the Baltics and Nordic countries, however, is not limited to submarines. Russian naval vessels, allegedly participating in military exercises, have also disrupted the laying of the NordBalt cable, designed to facilitate the trade of electricity between Sweden and Lithuania, four times.

Moves and Countermoves

The Nordic and Baltic countries are located in a region of strategic importance to Russia. The expansion of NATO to the Baltic countries in the early 2000s brought the alliance closer than ever to Russia, within 130 kilometers (80 miles) of St. Petersburg. And Norway, a NATO member, has pushed for the alliance to become more active in the Barents Sea and in the Arctic, where Russia is increasing its presence.

Finland and Sweden are formally non-aligned and have remained neutral since the Cold War. Nevertheless, the crisis in Ukraine and increased Russian military activity in the region have reignited the debate over Finnish and Swedish defense alignments. Though neither country is formally applying for NATO membership, Sweden is for the first time participating in NATO's anti-submarine drills. Both Finland and Sweden are involved in efforts to boost regional defense cooperation to counter Russian maneuvers in the region. In early April, officials from Finland and Sweden joined their Danish, Norwegian and Icelandic counterparts to jointly call for greater military cooperation among the countries.

Increased Russian military activity in the region has led some countries to strengthen their domestic defenses as well. On March 19, Lithuania's parliament voted to reinstate compulsory military conscription in direct response to the crisis in Ukraine. Although Finnish officials have denied that the letter campaign to 900,000 reservists is related to increased Russian activity along Finland's borders, the campaign's scale points to a link.
 
Finally, several countries, most notably Sweden and the Baltic states, have been highly involved in efforts to build a broad regional alliance to counter Russia's moves in Central and Eastern Europe. On May 4, Swedish Foreign Minister Margot Wallstrom and Lithuanian Foreign Minister Linas Linkevicius visited Moldova in preparation for the Eastern Partnership summit in Latvia later this month. Sweden and the Baltics, among others, have also vigorously encouraged Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova to take steps to further integrate with the European Union and to boost ties with countries such as Turkey and Romania to create a U.S.-backed alliance network that would reach from the Baltics in the north to the Black Sea and Turkey in the south.

Russia's military activity near the Baltic and Nordic states will not end anytime soon. Such activity is unlikely to escalate. However, Russian military exercises and movement will serve as a constant reminder of the potential threat Russia poses to the region. Still, the Nordic and Baltic nations will strive to cooperate on regional defense and strengthen defense policies in NATO and non-NATO states. And because of Russia's provocations in the region, even countries that have traditionally shied away from military alliances, such as Finland and Sweden, will likely heed their calls. 

"European War Games: Responses to Russian Military Drills is republished with permission of Stratfor."

This analysis was just a fraction of what our Members enjoy, Click Here to start your Free Membership Trial Today! "This report is republished with permission of STRATFOR"

© Copyright 2015 Stratfor. All rights reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis.

STRATFOR Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in