Greece Good....Greece Bad....Greece Vote Sunday..... Stock Market Froth Still High....

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Jul 02, 2015 - 01:30 PM GMT

Greece is the number one headline these days. We have other factors to look at from froth to horrific-looking monthly-index charts. But, by far, the most popular and important subject with regards to the health of the stock market is based on how things are moving along, or not, with Greece. Will they default after the vote on Sunday? Will the public speak up and vote yes on the sanctions for which the Euro zone are asking? Will Tsipras give in to the people? No one knows the answers to those questions.

So let's look at how things unfolded from last night through today's trading session. Last night, Tsipras, the leader in Greece, said he would agree to the conditions the Euro zone presented. Hope abounded. The markets overseas moved higher and we followed right along. We gapped up huge and kept slowly-but-surely moving higher. Then Tsipras decided he didn't like those conditions any more, got angry, and told his people to vote "no" to those conditions on Sunday. The market clearly didn't like this and the highs for the day were in. It was a slow move off the top that left the happy bulls feeling not so happy.

The vote by the citizens of Greece will take place Sunday, and the majority want those conditions, so that they will receive the help they so desperately need. Tsipras is saying "no," but, for now, it seems the citizens are saying "yes". The market wants certainty. Only after the vote will we know whether we get the resolution we all want from a market perspective. A good vote, meaning "yes," would likely send the market higher, and Tsipras out the front door. That would be very positive for everyone, including the stock market. All eyes will be focused on Sunday's vote, with lots of noise between now and then. Their leader could change his thinking at any moment. He's very volatile and unstable. But for now, there's still some hope. That's the only reason the market didn't crash already. It wants a positive outcome for Monday, so that it can head higher. More importantly, though, is that it doesn't breakdown, and it closes at S&P 500 2040. It is a very important time for all concerned on many fronts.

When so much is at stake overseas it's very easy to forget that we have some really important economic news to report Thursday morning pre-open. The all-important Jobs Report numbers will be out. We need to know whether the economy really is on track to health or whether things are still unclear. The market needs to see real growth with this Jobs Report in order to feel more stable and be able to count on the trend continuing. The truth is here and now. We need to see rising wages, jobs on the rise, and an increase in higher paying jobs, for sure. A bad number Thursday puts the entire economy under scrutiny. We all know that the market does not need this headache right now. Since no one is really worried about rising rates with what's taking place overseas, a good Jobs Report number would be the best medicine for those frothing bulls. A bad report would put more stress on traders. We need growth and we need it now! Thursday morning's report is big and shouldn't be over looked. For now, Greece and their problems need to be put aside, so that we can function adequately in this market.

Don't kid yourselves into thinking that froth is calming. It's not. What's going on is triggering fear in the best of us. However, as many of you may have seen, the dial that shows how fear is ramping up quickly, going from complacency to fear, lots of fear over the past few weeks, is not the case folks. Sorry, no sale. The bull-bear spread is still a very poor 34.1%. Bears are still near record-low readings. Bulls pulled back a bit, but they're still well over 305, so that's not fearful folks. We touched 29% two weeks ago, but went from there to 36%, and then 34%. Again, not good. Greed and froth are still the names of the game. It seems only a strong correction will finally put fear in the hearts of traders, and allow this reading to head towards the teens or lower. Don't be fooled by thinking now things are calmer and froth has disappeared. That's just not the case at all. You take froth along with those horrible, monthly-index charts, add in Greece, and you have the potential for something not so nice. That is why the folks from Greece need to vote "yes" on Sunday to the conditions of the Euro zone. That would at least take away some negativity towards stocks.

A day at a time here folks. Nothing is easy now.

Peace,

Jack

Jack Steiman is author of SwingTradeOnline.com ( www.swingtradeonline.com ). Former columnist for TheStreet.com, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

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