Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Quantum AI Stocks Investing Priority - 26th Jan 22
Is Everyone Going To Be Right About This Stocks Bear Market?- 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Glass Half Empty or Half Full? - 26th Jan 22
Stock Market Quoted As Saying 'The Reports Of My Demise Are Greatly Exaggerated' - 26th Jan 22
The Synthetic Dividend Option To Generate Profits - 26th Jan 22
The Beginner's Guide to Credit Repair - 26th Jan 22
AI Tech Stocks State Going into the CRASH and Capitalising on the Metaverse - 25th Jan 22
Stock Market Relief Rally, Maybe? - 25th Jan 22
Why Gold’s Latest Rally Is Nothing to Get Excited About - 25th Jan 22
Gold Slides and Rebounds in 2022 - 25th Jan 22
Gold; a stellar picture - 25th Jan 22
CATHY WOOD ARK GARBAGE ARK Funds Heading for 90% STOCK CRASH! - 22nd Jan 22
Gold Is the Belle of the Ball. Will Its Dance Turn Bearish? - 22nd Jan 22
Best Neighborhoods to Buy Real Estate in San Diego - 22nd Jan 22
Stock Market January PANIC AI Tech Stocks Buying Opp - Trend Forecast 2022 - 21st Jan 21
How to Get Rich in the MetaVerse - 20th Jan 21
Should you Buy Payment Disruptor Stocks in 2022? - 20th Jan 21
2022 the Year of Smart devices, Electric Vehicles, and AI Startups - 20th Jan 21
Oil Markets More Animated by Geopolitics, Supply, and Demand - 20th Jan 21
Fake It Till You Make It: Will Silver’s Motto Work on Gold? - 19th Jan 22
Crude Oil Smashing Stocks - 19th Jan 22
US Stagflation: The Global Risk of 2022 - 19th Jan 22
Stock Market Trend Forecast Early 2022 - Tech Growth Value Stocks Rotation - 18th Jan 22
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: Are We Setting Up For A 'Mini-Crash'? - 18th Jan 22
Mobile Sports Betting is on a rise: Here’s why - 18th Jan 22
Exponential AI Stocks Mega-trend - 17th Jan 22
THE NEXT BITCOIN - 17th Jan 22
Gold Price Predictions for 2022 - 17th Jan 22
How Do Debt Relief Services Work To Reduce The Amount You Owe? - 17th Jan 22
RIVIAN IPO Illustrates We are in the Mother of all Stock Market Bubbles - 16th Jan 22
All Market Eyes on Copper - 16th Jan 22
The US Dollar Had a Slip-Up, but Gold Turned a Blind Eye to It - 16th Jan 22
A Stock Market Top for the Ages - 16th Jan 22
FREETRADE - Stock Investing Platform, the Good, Bad and Ugly Review, Free Shares, Cancelled Orders - 15th Jan 22
WD 14tb My Book External Drive Unboxing, Testing and Benchmark Performance Amazon Buy Review - 15th Jan 22
Toyland Ferris Wheel Birthday Fun at Gulliver's Rother Valley UK Theme Park 2022 - 15th Jan 22
What You Should Know About a TailoredPay High Risk Merchant Account - 15th Jan 22

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Stock Market More Bearish Behavior.... 17,300 Dow Important Watch

Stock-Markets / Stock Markets 2015 Aug 20, 2015 - 10:24 AM GMT

By: Jack_Steiman


Today was fascinating. Truly fascinating, and certainly not boring. The market plunged early on as the European markets fell hard. We gapped down and continued to fall hard. After getting close to oversold on the short-term sixty-minute charts we noticed a small rally ensue into the FOMC at 2 PM Eastern Time. It stated that the economy hadn't quite gotten to a level where they'd feel good about slowly raising rates. The market absolutely exploded, with a twenty handle S&P 500 move up in a matter of minutes. The market looked ready to rock up, but something funny happened along the way. The market hit gaps, and the selling exploded back in taking the market right back down.

This is what occurs in a more bearish environment. Not a bear market. Not suggesting that. Just more of a bearish environment. Rally moves don't hold. When all was said and done the bulls couldn't feel real good about the overall action as the bears made a strong late day statement. Not a knockout statement, but a statement that said any run for the bulls is going to be extremely difficult. There are more and more willing sellers these days. Not enough to break us down yet, but enough to cause problems for the bulls. Not a pretty day for the bulls, but not a devastating day either. That said, enough to cause more angst and concern. A good day for the bears as they successfully fought off good Fed news when the Fed minutes came out.

The Dow has had three days with tails off 17,300. On August 7 it hit 17,289 only to close over a hundred points higher. On August 12 it hit down to 17,125 only to close many hundreds of points higher. Today, when it hit below 17,300, it blasted higher, and closed above, but not nearly up as strongly as the other two tests. The Dow is worth watching here since the lower P/E stocks live there including Apple Inc. (AAPL), which is flirting on the monthly charts with a breakdown below critical up trend line support. A forceful close below 112.00 on AAPL could possibly open the door to huge market selling across the board since AAPL is in just about every key index now. Dow closing below 17,300 and AAPL closing below 112.00, both with force, would be very bad news for the market bulls, so please keep those numbers in mind. AAPL also has negative divergences on the RSI on that monthly chart, so it really needs to be watched at the 112.00 level. Interesting times for both sides.

There is some really great news here for the bulls. Sentiment is spiraling more bearish and now occurring very rapidly. We've gone from nearly 46% on the bull-bear spread just a few months ago, down to 19.3% today, which covers action through last Friday's close. The bulls are down to 37.7%, which is well off the recent highs in the lower 60's. The bears slowly rising and they're up to 18.4%.
Nothing too good yet, but better than numbers in the 13% area. The market would really need to break 2040 on the S&P 500 hard before it ramps much higher, but the overall spread is improving quite dramatically. So there is a lot of good medicine happening here, even though the action doesn't feel very good for the bulls. The longer the market struggles, even if it doesn't break down, the better the numbers will get. Frustration is clearly getting to the bulls. They're becoming more emotional, and that's the best part. No more real complacency. The process is under way, and so far so very good. The unwinding of froth is happening before our eyes.

In the meantime, we continue to watch 2040 and 2134, with the bears a bit more in control for the short-term, but clearly nothing too amazing for them either.



Jack Steiman is author of ( ). Former columnist for, Jack is renowned for calling major shifts in the market, including the market bottom in mid-2002 and the market top in October 2007.

Sign up for a Free 15-Day Trial to!

© 2015

Mr. Steiman's commentaries and index analysis represent his own opinions and should not be relied upon for purposes of effecting securities transactions or other investing strategies, nor should they be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy any security. You should not interpret Mr. Steiman's opinions as constituting investment advice. Trades mentioned on the site are hypothetical, not actual, positions.

© 2005-2019 - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.

Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in