Before the intermediate cycle can top gold needs to rally far enough to stop all the calls for $1000 & $800 gold. There are still way too many traders expecting lower prices. The job of an intermediate rally is to clear that sentiment. As long as we keep seeing multiple comments about this being a bull trap (it may be) and traders should short the bounce then the bounce will continue. That’s what counter trend rallies do. They rally far enough to knock all of the shorts out of the market. Once that is complete then the next leg down can start.

As you can see the move into the first daily cycle low got a lot of traders short again. Ie. there is a tremendous amount of fuel to push gold higher. All of those shorts need to be squeezed into covering before the cycle tops.

And if this is a final bear market bottom, then sentiment won’t stop at 40-50%. It will rise to 70-80% bulls before the cycle tops.

Gary Savage
The Smart Money Tracker

Gary Savage authors the Smart Money Tracker and daily financial newsletter tracking the stock & commodity markets with special emphasis on the precious metals market.

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

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