For most of December, gold has acted as if it is forming a base from which to rally but gold had a rough week last week losing $16.90/oz. and closed at 1,060.30. In addition, gold printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart. Cycles point to a low this week which could be followed by the kind of rally we would all like to catch but be careful; a 4 year cycle low is not due until later this year making any rally now a likely bull trap.

Given the inverse relationship between gold and the US Dollar it is important to keep an eye on the currency market as well (see last week’s comments on the Dollar).

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Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

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