Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Investing in a Bubble Mania Stock Market Trending Towards Financial Crisis 2.0 CRASH! - 9th Sep 21
2.Tech Stocks Bubble Valuations 2000 vs 2021 - 25th Sep 21
3.Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
4.Stock Market FOMO Hits September Brick Wall - Evergrande China's Lehman's Moment - 22nd Sep 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
7.AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
8.Why Silver Price Could Crash by 20%! - 5th Oct 21
9.Powell: Inflation Might Not Be Transitory, After All - 3rd Oct 21
10.Global Stock Markets Topped 60 Days Before the US Stocks Peaked - 23rd Sep 21
Last 7 days
Ravencoin RVN About to EXPLODE to NEW HIGHS! Last Chance to Buy Before it goes to the MOON! - 21st Oct 21
Stock Market Animal Spirits Returning - 21st Oct 21
Inflation Advances, and So Does Gold — Except That It Doesn’t - 21st Oct 21
Why A.I. Is About To Trigger The Next Great Medical Breakthrough - 21st Oct 21
Gold Price Slowly Going Nowhere - 20th Oct 21
Shocking Numbers Show Government Crowding Out Real Economy - 20th Oct 21
Crude Oil Is in the Fast Lane, But Where Is It Going? - 20th Oct 21
3 Tech Stocks That Could Change The World - 20th Oct 21
Best AI Tech Stocks ETF and Investment Trusts - 19th Oct 21
Gold Mining Stocks: Will Investors Dump the Laggards? - 19th Oct 21
The Most Exciting Medical Breakthrough Of The Decade? - 19th Oct 21
Prices Rising as New Dangers Point to Hard Assets - 19th Oct 21
It’s not just Copper; GYX indicated cyclical the whole time - 19th Oct 21
Chinese Tech Stocks CCP Paranoia, VIES - Variable Interest Entities - 19th Oct 21
Inflation Peaked Again, Right? - 19th Oct 21
Gold Stocks Bouncing Hard - 19th Oct 21
Stock Market New Intermediate Bottom Forming? - 19th Oct 21
Beware, Gold Bulls — That’s the Beginning of the End - 18th Oct 21
Gold Price Flag Suggests A Big Rally May Start Soon - 18th Oct 21
Inflation Or Deflation – End Result Is Still Depression - 18th Oct 21
A.I. Breakthrough Could Disrupt the $11 Trillion Medical Sector - 18th Oct 21
US Economy and Stock Market Addicted to Deficit Spending - 17th Oct 21
The Gold Price And Inflation - 17th Oct 21
Went Long the Crude Oil? Beware of the Headwinds Ahead… - 17th Oct 21
Watch These Next-gen Cloud Computing Stocks - 17th Oct 21
Overclockers UK Custom Built PC 1 YEAR Use Review Verdict - Does it Still Work? - 16th Oct 21
Altonville Mine Tours Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 16th Oct 21
How to Protect Your Self From a Stock Market CRASH / Bear Market? - 14th Oct 21
The Only way to Crush Inflation (not stocks) - 14th Oct 21
Why "Losses Are the Norm" in the Stock Market - 14th Oct 21
Sub Species Castle Maze at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 14th Oct 21
Which Wallet is Best for Storing NFTs? - 14th Oct 21
Ailing UK Pound Has Global Effects - 14th Oct 21
How to Get 6 Years Life Out of Your Overclocked PC System, Optimum GPU, CPU and MB Performance - 13th Oct 21
The Demand Shock of 2022 - 12th Oct 21
4 Reasons Why NFTs Could Be The Future - 12th Oct 21
Crimex Silver: Murder Most Foul - 12th Oct 21
Bitcoin Rockets In Preparation For Liftoff To $100,000 - 12th Oct 21
INTEL Tech Stock to the MOON! INTC 2000 vs 2021 Market Bubble WARNING - 11th Oct 21
AI Stocks Portfolio Buying and Selling Levels Going Into Market Correction - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Wall of Worry Meets NFPs - 11th Oct 21
Stock Market Intermediate Correction Continues - 11th Oct 21
China / US Stock Markets Divergence - 10th Oct 21
Can US Save Taiwan From China? Taiwan Strait Naval Battle - PLA vs 7th Fleet War Game Simulation - 10th Oct 21
Gold Price Outlook: The Inflation Chasm Between Europe and the US - 10th Oct 21
US Real Estate ETFs React To Rising Housing Market Mortgage Interest Rates - 10th Oct 21
US China War over Taiwan Simulation 2021, Invasion Forecast - Who Will Win? - 9th Oct 21
When Will the Fed Taper? - 9th Oct 21
Dancing with Ghouls and Ghosts at Alton Towers Scarefest 2021 - 9th Oct 21
Stock Market FOMO Going into Crash Season - 8th Oct 21
Scan Computers - Custom Build PC 6 Months Later, Reliability, Issues, Quality of Tech Support Review - 8th Oct 21
Gold and Silver: Your Financial Main Battle Tanks - 8th Oct 21
How to handle the “Twin Crises” Evergrande and Debt Ceiling Threatening Stocks - 8th Oct 21
Why a Peak in US Home Prices May Be Approaching - 8th Oct 21
Alton Towers Scarefest is BACK! Post Pandemic Frights Begin, What it's Like to Enter Scarefest 2021 - 8th Oct 21
AJ Bell vs II Interactive Investor - Which Platform is Best for Buying US FAANG Stocks UK Investing - 7th Oct 21
Gold: Evergrande Investors' Savior - 7th Oct 21
Here's What Really Sets Interest Rates (Not Central Banks) - 7th Oct 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

The “Hanging in There” Game for Oil Producers

Commodities / Oil Companies Jan 11, 2016 - 04:04 PM GMT

By: EconMatters

Commodities

9.2 Million Barrels

The latest EIA report shows the US Production rate steady and holding at the 9.2 million barrels per day. And although there have been some anecdotal reports out of Canada at the start of the year on this recent down leg in oil prices, that this has triggered them to shut down production, that at these prices it makes no sense to continue operations; the rest of the beleaguered producers in the oil space are continuing to operate and hold on throwing more bad money after bad money.


Was the Business Case for $40 oil?

These producers aren`t getting it, these producers didn`t get into the business for $40 oil, these projects were started when the floor for WTI was $90 a barrel, with the extreme lows of a solid 5-year timeframe in the low $80s per barrel for oil. No business plan had a model with 16 months of average oil prices in the $45 barrel range. It might just take oil prices going to $25 a barrel for hands to be forced, so somebody will finally make the call, and pull the plug on some of these operations.

It seems everyone is on the hopium alternative reality trip that oil prices will recover at the back of 2016, and if they can just stay in business until then, then they can survive. But they aren`t getting it, the only way prices move higher by enough magnitude where they could actually survive, is if enough US production goes offline permanently, i.e., people go out of business – namely these same beleaguered producers who didn`t get into the business for $45 oil. Thus the Catch – 22 that none of these firms are getting is that sure prices may rise in the future, but not until you go out of business.


The Hopium Trade

You are the problem, taking US Production from 5 million barrels per day to 9.5 million is what is currently unsupportable in the market. The market will not clear and rationalize until you get out of the business for good. Therefore, the hopium trade is all built on a false premise, yeah if prices rise the second half of the year maybe you can last a little longer. But you’re missing the point, the oil market which supported $95 a barrel prices, the reason you got into the business in the first place, was built upon a 5 or 6 million barrel per day US Production number, and not 9.5 million barrels per day.

Therefore, these beleaguered producers who are trying to just hang in there hoping their competition goes by the wayside, don`t realize that everybody is going by the wayside over the 6 million barrels per day threshold for US Production. At least until global demand pics up considerably with a much stronger industrial growth phase with maybe some future CAP EX Development in underperforming regions like India, Africa, Latin America and China.


OPEC Production Stability

In concert with OPEC at least stabilizing production at 32 million barrels per day going forward for the next 5 years, and not trying to gain market share by increasing production at the current rate of the last two years in this current price war for market share. But OPEC has moved from 30 million to 32 million barrels per day during this price collapse in oil prices, and given the downturn in China`s rebalancing campaign, there is no doubt that US Domestic production needs to go out of business for the foreseeable future. In short, for oil prices to recover, US Production needs to drop to at the very least 6 million barrels per day for the market to rationalize in price.


Bank Regulators

This isn`t rocket science, anybody that recently got into the business taking US Domestic production from 6 million barrels per day to over 9 million barrels per day needs to cease operations for good. This isn`t a have your cake and eat it too moment. Oil prices don`t recover until you go out of business, so you are just delaying the inevitable. I cannot believe how stupid people are in the oil industry, 9.2 million barrels per day of US Production is just too much given the last 16 month`s pricing environment in oil markets. US Production needs to drop fast, stop looking around at your neighbor to stop producing, if you got into the business the last 5 years, prices are not recovering until you leave for good.

Economics Lesson

This is economics 101. Any first year economics student could pull the cord on projects that are unprofitable. Obviously these projects weren`t started with $45 oil in the model, so why are they continuing to operate when a banker, regulator, or business manager can look at the charts above, see the economic correlations between the three charts, and realize what needs to happen to rationalize the model back to the oil market being a balanced market. If you believe in the hang in there just a little longer notion, you are in dire need of an economics intervention. This is what the market will do it will give these producers an economics intervention, and send prices down to $25 a barrel, and speed up the decision making process. In essence, make the decision for you Oil Producers!

By EconMatters

http://www.econmatters.com/

The theory of quantum mechanics and Einstein’s theory of relativity (E=mc2) have taught us that matter (yin) and energy (yang) are inter-related and interdependent. This interconnectness of all things is the essense of the concept “yin-yang”, and Einstein’s fundamental equation: matter equals energy. The same theories may be applied to equities and commodity markets.

All things within the markets and macro-economy undergo constant change and transformation, and everything is interconnected. That’s why here at Economic Forecasts & Opinions, we focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the markets to help you achieve a great continuum of portfolio yin-yang equilibrium.

That's why, with a team of analysts, we at EconMatters focus on identifying the fundamental theories of cause and effect in the financial markets that matters to your portfolio.

© 2016 Copyright EconMatters - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

EconMatters Archive

© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in