Last week's forecast for a high in the Dow on February 1st was a perfect hit. As of last Friday, the Dow has fallen 438 points since last Monday's high.

Crude spent last week trying to breakout from the 34-dma but, in the end, fell $2.73/bbl. for the week closing at 30.89 and printed an engulfing bearish candlestick on the weekly chart.

If 30.00 is broken again, my price forecasting model generates a target of 22.90. However, a break out above the 34-dma would be bullish and a close above 37.90 would 'seal the deal'.

Cycles point to an important low in the second week of March and seasonality is distinctly bearish in February.

Try a "sneak-peek " this month at Seattle Technical Advisors.com

Ed Carlson, author of George Lindsay and the Art of Technical Analysis, and his new book, George Lindsay's An Aid to Timing is an independent trader, consultant, and Chartered Market Technician (CMT) based in Seattle. Carlson manages the website Seattle Technical Advisors.com, where he publishes daily and weekly commentary. He spent twenty years as a stockbroker and holds an M.B.A. from Wichita State University.

© 2015 Copyright Ed Carlson - All Rights Reserved

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