Most Popular
1. Banking Crisis is Stocks Bull Market Buying Opportunity - Nadeem_Walayat
2.The Crypto Signal for the Precious Metals Market - P_Radomski_CFA
3. One Possible Outcome to a New World Order - Raymond_Matison
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
5. Apple AAPL Stock Trend and Earnings Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
6.AI, Stocks, and Gold Stocks – Connected After All - P_Radomski_CFA
7.Stock Market CHEAT SHEET - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.US Debt Ceiling Crisis Smoke and Mirrors Circus - Nadeem_Walayat
9.Silver Price May Explode - Avi_Gilburt
10.More US Banks Could Collapse -- A Lot More- EWI
Last 7 days
Stock Market Volatility (VIX) - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Investor Sentiment - 25th Mar 24
The Federal Reserve Didn't Do Anything But It Had Plenty to Say - 25th Mar 24
Stock Market Breadth - 24th Mar 24
Stock Market Margin Debt Indicator - 24th Mar 24
It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - 24th Mar 24
Stocks: What to Make of All This Insider Selling- 24th Mar 24
Money Supply Continues To Fall, Economy Worsens – Investors Don’t Care - 24th Mar 24
Get an Edge in the Crypto Market with Order Flow - 24th Mar 24
US Presidential Election Cycle and Recessions - 18th Mar 24
US Recession Already Happened in 2022! - 18th Mar 24
AI can now remember everything you say - 18th Mar 24
Bitcoin Crypto Mania 2024 - MicroStrategy MSTR Blow off Top! - 14th Mar 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - 11th Mar 24
Gold and the Long-Term Inflation Cycle - 11th Mar 24
Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - 11th Mar 24
Two Reasons The Fed Manipulates Interest Rates - 11th Mar 24
US Dollar Trend 2024 - 9th Mar 2024
The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - 9th Mar 2024
Investors Don’t Believe the Gold Rally, Still Prefer General Stocks - 9th Mar 2024
Paper Gold Vs. Real Gold: It's Important to Know the Difference - 9th Mar 2024
Stocks: What This "Record Extreme" Indicator May Be Signaling - 9th Mar 2024
My 3 Favorite Trade Setups - Elliott Wave Course - 9th Mar 2024
Bitcoin Crypto Bubble Mania! - 4th Mar 2024
US Interest Rates - When WIll the Fed Pivot - 1st Mar 2024
S&P Stock Market Real Earnings Yield - 29th Feb 2024
US Unemployment is a Fake Statistic - 29th Feb 2024
U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - 29th Feb 2024
What a Breakdown in Silver Mining Stocks! What an Opportunity! - 29th Feb 2024
Why AI will Soon become SA - Synthetic Intelligence - The Machine Learning Megatrend - 29th Feb 2024
Keep Calm and Carry on Buying Quantum AI Tech Stocks - 19th Feb 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Gold’s Full House

Commodities / Gold and Silver 2016 Feb 25, 2016 - 08:26 PM GMT

By: Gary_Tanashian

Commodities

Using the Macrocosm theme again (I can’t get enough of this gimmick) let’s update some key gold ratios in poker terms.


Gold is currently working on a ‘full house’, with three of a kind (gold out performs stock markets, gold rises vs. commodities and gold rises vs. global currencies).  We can call the pair needed to complete the full house economic contraction (to varying degrees globally) and confidence declines.

Gold vs. Stock Markets

Gold vs. developed world stock markets is bullish and consolidating.  This is a critical macro consideration to the gold sector investment case and these weekly charts show trends changing vs. all world stock markets.  The ratios are in consolidation as gold itself consolidates and markets bounce.

Gold vs. Commodities is wildly bullish and consolidating a bit.

Gold vs. Currencies shows a breakout from a downtrend in Euros, consolidation above support in ‘commodity currencies’ of Canada and Australia, a breakout attempt in Yen and a clear vote of confidence in the risk ‘off’ metallic monetary asset vs. a paper risk ‘off’ note (Swissy).

Finally, in keeping with the poker theme, what beats a full house?  ‘Four of a kind’.  Gold vs. the all-important US Treasury bond market is working on its 3rd week in trying to deal with the first restraining moving average.  The pictures above show waning confidence and if this one (indicating confidence in a conventional risk ‘off’ repository vs. gold) joins them we will have four of a kind in gold’s favor.

Obviously, ‘five of a kind’ would be ideal.  While the 4th card above looks to be in process, the 5th is not.  That’s the ‘yield curves rise’ planet in the macrocosm.  Whether calculated by dividing the 10 by the 2 or subtracting it, this curve is not yet rising.  The implication is that the game has not completely turned the table on the Federal Reserve with respect to the market’s confidence.

Bottom Line

Through all the years of gold bugs clicking the heels of their ruby slippers, demanding that inflation would drive gold higher any day now, it was the macro indicators that would tell the story.  As we entered 2016 they began telling a story of a counter-cyclical environment that would be necessary to launch the gold sector.  The story, or game, is not yet over but the odds are now in gold’s favor.  Prepare for volatility and opportunity as the process continues.

Subscribe to NFTRH Premium for your 25-35 page weekly report, interim updates (including Key ETF charts) and NFTRH+ chart and trade ideas or the free eLetter for an introduction to our work. Or simply keep up to date with plenty of public content at NFTRH.com and Biiwii.com.

By Gary Tanashian

http://biiwii.com

© 2016 Copyright  Gary Tanashian - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Gary Tanashian Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in