Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. Market Decline Will Lead To Pension Collapse, USD Devaluation, And NWO - Raymond_Matison
2.Uber’s Nightmare Has Just Started - Stephen_McBride
3.Stock Market Crash Black Swan Event Set Up Sept 12th? - Brad_Gudgeon
4.GDow Stock Market Trend Forecast Update - Nadeem_Walayat
5.Gold Significant Correction Has Started - Clive_Maund
6.British Pound GBP vs Brexit Chaos Timeline - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Cameco Crash, Uranium Sector Won’t Catch a break - Richard_Mills
8.Recession 2020 Forecast : The New Risks & New Profits Of A Grand Experiment - Dan_Amerman
9.Gold When Global Insanity Prevails - Michael Ballanger
10.UK General Election Forecast 2019 - Betting Market Odds - Nadeem_Walayat
Last 7 days
Social Mood and Leaders Impact on General Election Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Long-term Potential for Gold Remains Strong! - 9th Dec 19
Stock and Financial Markets Review - 9th Dec 19
Labour / Tory Manifesto's Impact on UK General Election Seats Forecast 2019 - 9th Dec 19
Tory Seats Forecast 2019 General Election Based on UK House Prices Momentum Analysis - 9th Dec 19
Top Tory Marginal Seats at Risk of Loss to Labour and Lib Dems - Election 2019 - 9th Dec 19
UK House Prices Momentum Tory Seats Forecast General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Why Labour is Set to Lose Sheffield Seats at General Election 2019 - 8th Dec 19
Gold and Silver Opportunity Here Is As Good As It Gets - 8th Dec 19
High Yield Bond and Transports Signal Gold Buy Signal - 8th Dec 19
Gold & Silver Stocks Belie CoT Caution - 8th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Spending Bankrupt Britain? UK Debt and Deficits - 7th Dec 19
Lib Dem Fake Tory Election Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam General Election 2019 - 7th Dec 19
You Should Be Buying Gold Stocks Now - 6th Dec 19
The End of Apple Has Begun - 6th Dec 19
How Much Crude Oil Do You Unknowingly Eat? - 6th Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election Forecast - 6th Dec 19
Gold Price Forecast – Has the Recovery Finished? - 6th Dec 19
Precious Metals Ratio Charts - 6th Dec 19
Climate Emergency vs Labour Tree Felling Councils Reality - Sheffield General Election 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What Fake UK Unemployment Statistics Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 6th Dec 19
What UK CPI, RPI and REAL INFLATION Predict for General Election Result 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Supply Crunch Coming as Silver Miners Scale Back - 5th Dec 19
Gold Will Not Surpass Its 1980 Peak - 5th Dec 19
UK House Prices Most Accurate Predictor of UK General Elections - 2019 - 5th Dec 19
7 Year Cycles Can Be Powerful And Gold Just Started One - 5th Dec 19
Lib Dems Winning Election Leaflets War Against Labour - Sheffield Hallam 2019 - 5th Dec 19
Do you like to venture out? Test yourself and see what we propose for you - 5th Dec 19
Great Ways To Make Money Over Time - 5th Dec 19
Calculating Your Personal Cost If Stock, Bond and House Prices Return To Average - 4th Dec 19
Will Labour Government Plant More Tree's than Council's Like Sheffield Fell? - 4th Dec 19
What the UK Economy GDP Growth Rate Predicts for General Election 2019 - 4th Dec 19
Gold, Silver and Stock Market Big Picture: Seat Belts Tightened - 4th Dec 19
Online Presence: What You Need to Know About What Others Know About You - 4th Dec 19
New Company Tip: How To Turn Prospects into Customers with CRM Tech - 4th Dec 19
About To Relive The 2007 US Housing Market Real Estate Crash Again? - 3rd Dec 19
How Far Will Gold Reach Before the Upcoming Reversal? - 3rd Dec 19
Is The Current Stock Market Rally A True Valuation Rally or Euphoria? - 3rd Dec 19
Why Shale Oil Not Viable at $45WTI Anymore, OPEC Can Dictate Price Again - 3rd Dec 19
Lib Dem Election Dodgy Leaflets - Sheffield Hallam Battle General Election 2019 - 3rd Dec 19
Land Rover Discovery Sport Brake Pads Uneven Wear Dash Warning Message at 2mm Mark - 3rd Dec 19
The Rise and Evolution of Bitcoin - 3rd Dec 19
Virtual games and sport, which has one related to the other - 3rd Dec 19
The Narrative About Gold is Changing Again - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Liquidity & Volume Diminish – What Next? - 2nd Dec 19
A Complete Guide To Finding The Best CFD Broker - 2nd Dec 19
See You On The Dark Side Of The Moon - 2nd Dec 19
Will Lib Dems Win Sheffield Hallam From Labour? General Election 2019 - 2nd Dec 19
Stock Market Where Are We?  - 1st Dec 19
Will Labour's Insane Manifesto Spending Plans Bankrupt Britain? - 1st Dec 19
Labour vs Tory Manifesto Debt Fuelled Voter Bribes Impact on UK General Election - 30th Nov 19
Growing Inequality Unrest Threatens Mining Industry - 30th Nov 19
Conspiracy Theories Are Killing This Nation - 30th Nov 19
How to Clip a Budgies / Parakeets Wings, Cut / Trim Bird's Flight Feathers - 30th Nov 19
Hidden Failure of SIFI Banks - 29th Nov 19
Use the “Ferrari Pattern” to Predictably Make 431% with IPOs - 29th Nov 19
Tax-Loss Selling Drives Down Gold and Silver Junior Stock Prices - 29th Nov 19
We Are on the Brink of the Second Great Depression - 29th Nov 19
How to Spot REAL Amazon Black Friday Bargains and Avoid FAKE Sales - 29th Nov 19

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

UK House prices predicting general election result

Weekly Stock Market Technical Analysis Report - 17th March 2007

Stock-Markets / UK Stock Market Mar 17, 2007 - 12:23 PM GMT

By: Mike_Burk

Stock-Markets

The good news is: The weakness that began late last month should end soon, although, there is likely to be one more leg down.

Short Term
New lows dry up quickly after a bottom has been reached.

The first chart is an update of one I showed last week, it covers the past 6 months showing the S&P 500 (SPX) in red and a 10% trend of NYSE new lows (NY NL) in brown. Dashed vertical lines have been drawn on the first trading day of each month and NY NL has been plotted on an inverted Y axis to make the chart easier to read (up is good).


The indicator moved sharply downward on Tuesday and Wednesday last week. It is prudent to wait until the indicator has been moving upward for 5 consecutive days before getting optimistic.

The next chart is similar to the previous one except it shows the NASDAQ composite (OTC) and OTC NL calculated from NASDAQ new lows.

OTC NL has been weaker than NY NL

There were 127 NASDAQ new lows on Tuesday and 149 on Wednesday and 78 and 89 on the NYSE. These numbers are large enough to suggest caution.

Intermediate term

A summation index (SI) is a running total of oscillator values. When the oscillator is positive the SI moves upward and when it is negative the SI moves downward.

The chart below shows the OTC in red and SI's calculated from oscillators of NASDAQ advancing issues - declining issues, new highs - new lows and upside volume - downside volume.

SI's are a measure of the market's internal strength and they are all moving sharply downward.

The next chart covers the past year showing the OTC in red and a NASDAQ downside volume indicator (OTC DV) in blue. OTC DV is a 4% trend (39 day EMA) of NASDAQ downside volume plotted on an inverted Y axis. OTC DV rises quickly after a bottom has been reached and that has not happened yet.

Seasonality

Next week includes the week prior to the 4th Friday of March.

The tables below show OTC data from 1963 - 2003 during the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and SPX data beginning with 1955.

Data prior to 1953 has been ignored because the market traded 6 days a week.

The program chokes when Good Friday falls on the 4th Friday of March. That is why there are zeros for every day in 1959 and 1975.

There are summaries for both the 3rd year of the Presidential Cycle and all years combined.

The SPX as had a negative bias over all periods for the week while the OTC has had a slightly positive bias during the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.

Report for the week before the 4th Friday of March
The number following the year is the position in the presidential cycle.
Daily returns from Monday through the 4th Friday.

OTC Presidential Year 3
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1963-3 0.39% -0.29% -0.13% 0.35% 0.06% 0.39%
1967-3 0.66% 0.16% 0.69% 0.20% 0.32% 2.04%
1971-3 -0.38% -0.25% -0.39% -0.10% 0.45% -0.66%
1975-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1979-3 0.46% -0.27% 0.50% 0.49% 0.38% 1.57%
1983-3 0.50% 0.45% 0.65% 0.41% 0.19% 2.20%
Avg 0.31% 0.02% 0.36% 0.25% 0.34% 1.29%
1987-3 -0.36% 0.02% -0.15% 0.28% -0.42% -0.63%
1991-3 0.00% -0.74% 0.71% -0.32% -0.10% -0.45%
1995-3 0.27% -0.09% -0.08% 0.28% 0.90% 1.27%
1999-3 -1.06% -3.05% 1.83% 2.94% -0.64% 0.02%
2003-3 -3.66% 1.55% -0.26% -0.23% -1.06% -3.66%
Avg -0.96% -0.46% 0.41% 0.59% -0.27% -0.69%
OTC summary for Presidential year 3 1963 - 2003
Avg -0.32% -0.25% 0.34% 0.43% 0.01% 0.21%
Win% 50% 40% 50% 70% 60% 60%
OTC summary for all years 1963 - 2006
Avg -0.24% -0.19% 0.10% 0.13% 0.08% -0.12%
Win% 47% 42% 50% 61% 53% 55%
SPX Presidential Year 3
Year Mon Tue Wed Thur Fri Totals
1955-3 -0.64% 0.61% 1.30% 0.79% 0.08% 2.15%
1959-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1963-3 -0.49% -0.21% 0.73% -0.15% 0.52% 0.40%
1967-3 -0.08% 0.04% -0.20% -0.03% -0.55% -0.82%
1971-3 -0.39% -0.34% -0.66% -0.01% 0.34% -1.05%
1975-3 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
1979-3 0.37% -0.55% 0.75% 0.41% -0.07% 0.91%
1983-3 0.86% -0.35% 1.43% 0.37% -0.46% 1.85%
Avg 0.19% -0.30% 0.33% 0.18% -0.18% 0.22%
1987-3 1.00% 0.16% -0.42% 0.18% -1.60% -0.67%
1991-3 -0.40% -1.48% 0.36% -0.36% 0.25% -1.64%
1995-3 0.13% -0.22% 0.12% 0.06% 1.01% 1.10%
1999-3 -0.18% -2.69% 0.52% 1.69% -0.56% -1.22%
2003-3 -3.52% 1.22% -0.55% -0.16% -0.58% -3.60%
Avg -0.59% -0.60% 0.01% 0.28% -0.29% -1.20%
SPX summary for Presidential Year 3 1955 - 2003
Avg -0.30% -0.35% 0.31% 0.25% -0.15% -0.24%
Win% 36% 36% 64% 55% 45% 45%
SPX summary for all years 1953 - 2006
Avg -0.12% -0.02% -0.03% -0.05% -0.08% -0.31%
Win% 38% 47% 43% 43% 49% 36%

The Alpha Fund (APHAX)
The Alpha Fund, which I manage, opened last October.

Last week YTD
APHAX -0.8% +1.9%

For information about the fund go to: http://www.thealphafunds.com/index.htm . The fund now has service class shares available.

Conclusion

Last week new lows came close to their highest levels of this decline which were reached on March 5. Seasonally next week has been weak and there is no evidence the decline is over.

I expect the major indices to be lower on Friday March 23 than they were on Friday March 16.

Last week's positive forecast based on modest seasonal strength was a miss.

By Mike Burke

Mike Burk is an employee and principle of Alpha Investment Management (Alpha) a registered investment advisor. Charts and figures presented herein are believed to be reliable but we cannot attest to their accuracy. The views expressed are provided for information purposes only and should not be construed in any way as investment advice. Furthermore, the opinions expressed may change without notice. To subscribe to this report : http://alphaim.net/signup.html


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

6 Critical Money Making Rules