BrExit Economic Collapse Evaporates into Boom as PMI Soars

By: Nadeem_Walayat

The latest news out for the UK economy is that the post BrExit economic collapse as illustrated by the Purchasing Managers Index that during July fell sharply to 48.3 (a reading below 50 implies economic contraction) which most academic economists that populate the mainstream press concluded heralded the start of a severe imminent economic downtrend, an recession early warning.

Here's what the FT reported early August : Post-referendum UK manufacturing PMI deteriorates

The UK manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in July, down from an initial reading of 49.1. That’s the worst pace of contraction since early 2013. Levels above 50 indicate expansion.

Last week, Markit said the initial reading showed “a dramatic deterioration in the economy” in the wake of the Brexit vote.

However, the latest PMI being reported for August instead of continuing the expected collapse and thus feeding the establishment elites vested interest economists propaganda message has instead done the EXACT OPPOSITE by soaring by 5 index point to a reading of 53.3 the largest rise in the indexes 25 history, sending sterling soaring and economists scrambling to cover their backs as the latest data makes a mockery of that which passes for economic analysis in the mainstream press as instead of recession Britain increasingly looks set to enjoy a 'FREEDOM dividend' of which the Olympics medals success was just a taste of what to expect as I wrote at the time -

22 Aug 2016 - BrExit Win's Britain Olympics Success Freedom Dividend, Economy Next

At the end of the day sports is sports, and thus is just a taste of the freedom boost to come that will most significantly be felt in the economy, as all of the economic doom merchants in the pay of the establishment elite that populate the mainstream media will once more be found out to be badly wrong, as the British people and economy fired up by BrExit freedom of having taken back control will out do all of the establishments fear mongering as painted by the academics and political pundits and thus expect the UK economy to get a brexit boost rather than collapse, both from consumers going on a confidence inspired spending spree and from the export sector boosted by sterling's 12% devaluation, which has already been reflected by the stock markets strong performance when the fools that populate the financial press had penciled in a crash, collapse or worse!

Similarly house prices instead of crashing by as much as 20% as many REMAIN doom merchants were warning of in the run up to the June 23rd vote, instead are accelerating higher as illustrated by the latest figures out of the Nationwide that show that house prices are now rising at their strongest rate for 2016, up 0.6% for August. Whilst the Halifax August figure remains pending.

“If we leave the European Union there will be an immediate economic shock that will hit financial markets... That affects the value of people’s homes and the Treasury analysis shows that there would be a hit to the value of people’s homes by at least 10 per cent and up to 18 per cent." - George Osborne

For more on the prospects for post Brexit britain see my following two in depth pieces of analysis that are likely to increasingly become manifest.

• BrExit Implications for UK Economy, Interest Rates, Bonds, Markets, Debt & Deficit, Inflation...
• BrExit Implications for UK Stock Market, Sterling GBP, House Prices and UK Politics...

And watch the following video of what actually happened on BrExit night that caught virtually ALL by surprise as illustrated by my selection of the highlights from 8 hours of BBC coverage of the EU Referendum result.

Also see the second video on trading markets during brexit night that illustrates how all hell broke lose once the polls closed Thursday 23rd June, triggering a sharp rally in sterling and FTSE futures that was sustained until the actual results started to be announced shortly after midnight triggering a 5 hour market panic.

And ensure you are subscribed to my always free newsletter for more in-depth analysis that attempts to map out what is likely to happen next to Britain and Europe.

By Nadeem Walayat

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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Nadeem Walayat has over 25 years experience of trading derivatives, portfolio management and analysing the financial markets, including one of few who both anticipated and Beat the 1987 Crash. Nadeem's forward looking analysis focuses on UK inflation, economy, interest rates and housing market. He is the author of five ebook's in the The Inflation Mega-Trend and Stocks Stealth Bull Market series that can be downloaded for Free.

Nadeem is the Editor of The Market Oracle, a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication that presents in-depth analysis from over 1000 experienced analysts on a range of views of the probable direction of the financial markets, thus enabling our readers to arrive at an informed opinion on future market direction. http://www.marketoracle.co.uk

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