Most Popular
1. It’s a New Macro, the Gold Market Knows It, But Dead Men Walking Do Not (yet)- Gary_Tanashian
2.Stock Market Presidential Election Cycle Seasonal Trend Analysis - Nadeem_Walayat
3. Bitcoin S&P Pattern - Nadeem_Walayat
4.Nvidia Blow Off Top - Flying High like the Phoenix too Close to the Sun - Nadeem_Walayat
4.U.S. financial market’s “Weimar phase” impact to your fiat and digital assets - Raymond_Matison
5. How to Profit from the Global Warming ClImate Change Mega Death Trend - Part1 - Nadeem_Walayat
7.Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast 2024 - - Nadeem_Walayat
8.The Bond Trade and Interest Rates - Nadeem_Walayat
9.It’s Easy to Scream Stocks Bubble! - Stephen_McBride
10.Fed’s Next Intertest Rate Move might not align with popular consensus - Richard_Mills
Last 7 days
THEY DON'T RING THE BELL AT THE CRPTO MARKET TOP! - 20th Dec 24
CEREBUS IPO NVIDIA KILLER? - 18th Dec 24
Nvidia Stock 5X to 30X - 18th Dec 24
LRCX Stock Split - 18th Dec 24
Stock Market Expected Trend Forecast - 18th Dec 24
Silver’s Evolving Market: Bright Prospects and Lingering Challenges - 18th Dec 24
Extreme Levels of Work-for-Gold Ratio - 18th Dec 24
Tesla $460, Bitcoin $107k, S&P 6080 - The Pump Continues! - 16th Dec 24
Stock Market Risk to the Upside! S&P 7000 Forecast 2025 - 15th Dec 24
Stock Market 2025 Mid Decade Year - 15th Dec 24
Sheffield Christmas Market 2024 Is a Building Site - 15th Dec 24
Got Copper or Gold Miners? Watch Out - 15th Dec 24
Republican vs Democrat Presidents and the Stock Market - 13th Dec 24
Stock Market Up 8 Out of First 9 months - 13th Dec 24
What Does a Strong Sept Mean for the Stock Market? - 13th Dec 24
Is Trump the Most Pro-Stock Market President Ever? - 13th Dec 24
Interest Rates, Unemployment and the SPX - 13th Dec 24
Fed Balance Sheet Continues To Decline - 13th Dec 24
Trump Stocks and Crypto Mania 2025 Incoming as Bitcoin Breaks Above $100k - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Multiple Confirmations - Are You Ready? - 8th Dec 24
Gold Price Monster Upleg Lives - 8th Dec 24
Stock & Crypto Markets Going into December 2024 - 2nd Dec 24
US Presidential Election Year Stock Market Seasonal Trend - 29th Nov 24
Who controls the past controls the future: who controls the present controls the past - 29th Nov 24
Gold After Trump Wins - 29th Nov 24
The AI Stocks, Housing, Inflation and Bitcoin Crypto Mega-trends - 27th Nov 24
Gold Price Ahead of the Thanksgiving Weekend - 27th Nov 24
Bitcoin Gravy Train Trend Forecast to June 2025 - 24th Nov 24
Stocks, Bitcoin and Crypto Markets Breaking Bad on Donald Trump Pump - 21st Nov 24
Gold Price To Re-Test $2,700 - 21st Nov 24
Stock Market Sentiment Speaks: This Is My Strong Warning To You - 21st Nov 24
Financial Crisis 2025 - This is Going to Shock People! - 21st Nov 24
Dubai Deluge - AI Tech Stocks Earnings Correction Opportunities - 18th Nov 24
Why President Trump Has NO Real Power - Deep State Military Industrial Complex - 8th Nov 24
Social Grant Increases and Serge Belamant Amid South Africa's New Political Landscape - 8th Nov 24
Is Forex Worth It? - 8th Nov 24
Nvidia Numero Uno in Count Down to President Donald Pump Election Victory - 5th Nov 24
Trump or Harris - Who Wins US Presidential Election 2024 Forecast Prediction - 5th Nov 24
Stock Market Brief in Count Down to US Election Result 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Gold Stocks’ Winter Rally 2024 - 3rd Nov 24
Why Countdown to U.S. Recession is Underway - 3rd Nov 24
Stock Market Trend Forecast to Jan 2025 - 2nd Nov 24
President Donald PUMP Forecast to Win US Presidential Election 2024 - 1st Nov 24

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

SPX Stocks Bull Market Continues to make New Highs

Stock-Markets / Stock Market 2017 Feb 18, 2017 - 03:26 PM GMT

By: Tony_Caldaro

Stock-Markets

The market started the week at SPX 2316. After a gap up opening on Monday the market traded to SPX 2351 by Wednesday. Then after a pullback to SPX 2339 on Thursday, the market rallied to end the week at SPX 2351. For the week the SPX/DOW gained 1.65%, and the NDX/NAZ gained 1.85%. Economic reports for the week were mostly higher. On the downtick: capacity utilization, industrial production, the WLEI, the Q1 GDP estimate, the NAHB, plus weekly claims rose. On the uptick: the CPI/PPI, NY/Philly FED, retail sales, business inventories, housing starts, building permits and leading indicators. Next week’s reports will be highlighted by the FOMC minutes, consumer sentiment and more housing reports. Best to your 3-day weekend and week!


LONG TERM: uptrend

Our long term count remains unchanged. A Primary wave III bull market began at the February, 2016 low of SPX 1810, and it celebrated its one-year anniversary this week. From that low we have labeled Intermediate waves i and ii at SPX 2111 and SPX 1992 respectively. Then labeled Minor waves 1 and 2 at SPX 2194 and SPX 2084 respectively. Since that last low it appears Minor wave 3, of Intermediate iii, has been underway.

Last weekend we noted. If the OEW 2321 and 2336 pivots offered resistance, like the multi-week resistance offered by the OEW 2270 and 2286 pivots, this three-month uptrend could top in this range. And the OEW 2336 pivot was the last possible level for any probable long term top. On Monday the market cleared the OEW 2321 pivot, and the OEW 2336 pivot was cleared on Wednesday. They offered hardly any resistance at all. In fact, after the OEW 2336 pivot was cleared it acted as support on two short term pullbacks. All potential long term bearish counts have been eliminated.

MEDIUM TERM: uptrend

This Minor wave 3 uptrend began three months ago, just before the election. Off that Minor 2 SPX 2084 low, we counted 5 waves up to SPX 2278. Then after a pullback to SPX 2234 we labeled those levels with Minute waves i and ii. Since SPX 2234 the market has been rising in Minute wave iii.

When this uptrend began in early-November from SPX 2084, we estimated it would rise about 300-points into the SPX 2380’s. This week it entered the SPX 2350’s. We can count 5 waves up for Minute iii, but the first 4 waves are overlapping. This suggests Minute iii is subdividing further than 5 waves, possibly 9 waves. The DOW has a cleaner count, suggesting it is in the third wave of Minute iii. We’ll continue to compare these two indices, while this uptrend continues to unfold, as we have since this bull market began. Medium term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at the 2385 and 2411 pivots.

SHORT TERM

As noted above we see five waves completed, with the first four waves overlapping, during Minute wave iii: 2282-2257-2301-2267-2351. This suggests Minute iii is subdividing into at least 9 waves. With the daily/weekly RSI quite overbought the sixth wave, a pullback of about 30 points, can occur at any time. But this should only be a pause in this extending uptrend.

Since third waves are usually at least equal to first waves, this would give us a general upside target in the SPX 2420’s just for Minute wave iii. And this uptrend may not even end there, as there are still Minute waves iv and v to follow. For now, we’ll just take it one pivot at a time and monitor the short term waves. Short term support is at the 2336 and 2321 pivots, with resistance at SPX 2351 and the 2385 pivot. Short term momentum ended the week with a negative divergence. In strong uptrends it is usually best to first wait for at least a 5-point reversal at a negative divergence. Best to your trading come Tuesday.

FOREIGN MARKETS

Asian markets were all higher and gained a net of 0.8% on the week.

European markets were also all higher and gained 0.8% as well.

The DJ World index gained 1.0%, and the NYSE index gained 1.2%.

COMMODITIES

Bonds are back in a downtrend and lost 0.1% on the week.

Crude is trying to establish an uptrend but lost 0.2%.

Gold is in an uptrend and gained 0.3%.

The USD is still in a downtrend but gained 0.1%.

NEXT WEEK

Monday: holiday. Wednesday: existing home sales and the FOMC minutes. Thursday: weekly jobless claims and the FHFA housing index. Friday: consumer sentiment and new home sales. Enjoy the extended weekend!

CHARTS: http://stockcharts.com/public/1269446/tenpp

https://caldaro.wordpress.com

After about 40 years of investing in the markets one learns that the markets are constantly changing, not only in price, but in what drives the markets. In the 1960s, the Nifty Fifty were the leaders of the stock market. In the 1970s, stock selection using Technical Analysis was important, as the market stayed with a trading range for the entire decade. In the 1980s, the market finally broke out of it doldrums, as the DOW broke through 1100 in 1982, and launched the greatest bull market on record. 

Sharing is an important aspect of a life. Over 100 people have joined our group, from all walks of life, covering twenty three countries across the globe. It's been the most fun I have ever had in the market. Sharing uncommon knowledge, with investors. In hope of aiding them in finding their financial independence.

Copyright © 2017 Tony Caldaro - All Rights Reserved Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Tony Caldaro Archive

© 2005-2022 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in