Nothing has changed from my last post on this pair. I mentioned we should expect some backtesting and that is what I am seeing on the charts. This should be expected, IMO as both are at a key inflection point in their longer Intermediate Cycles and the battle is on.

https://surfcity.co/2017/02/15/usd-and-gold-update/

Many will want to know if the PM complex will make new highs above last Summer before we top in this Intermediate Cycle? While it is possible, my expectations are that we should test and breach the Red Yearly Cycle downtrend on my Gold Weekly chart in Trading Cycle #2 and then we need to see how Gold reacts after its TC2 Low as the USD may be moving out of its longer Intermediate Cycle Low around that time. The key to my last sentence was “may be,” so we will recalibrate our next steps at that time.

Below are two charts on the USD followed by two charts on Gold. Each pair of charts has a near term Daily and a longer term weekly to show you where they are in their respective Intermediate Cycles and the struggle that is under way in these two related markets.

USD Daily and Weekly:

Gold Daily and Weekly:

If you follow Fibonacci levels at all, we often see some kind of pullback in an uptrend near the 62% retrace level. My Gold weekly below shows you this possibility on the chart as a 50% retrace won’t break my Red Yearly Cycle downtrend. Also note, however, that TC1 topped out near the 38% Fib Retrace level from last year’s July High before moving into the TC1 Low. Lastly, the TC1 Low was a Fib 38% move lower from the rise out of the Yearly Cycle Low in December.

Who was that Fibonacci guy anyway and how did he know his arcane math would work on Financial charts before they even existed? He must have been some kind of super nerdy dude…

Surfer Dude hangs with Nerdy Fibonacci Dude. I love it! ��

By Surf City

https://surfcity.co/

Everything about Cycle Investing

© 2017 Surf City - All Rights Reserved
Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in

The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis web-site.
(c) 2005-2024 MarketOracle.co.uk (Market Oracle Ltd) - Market Oracle Ltd asserts copyright on all articles authored by our editorial team and all comments posted. Any and all information provided within the web-site, is for general information purposes only and Market Oracle Ltd do not warrant the accuracy, timeliness or suitability of any information provided on this site. nor is or shall be deemed to constitute, financial or any other advice or recommendation by us. and are also not meant to be investment advice or solicitation or recommendation to establish market positions. We do not give investment advice and our comments are an expression of opinion only and should not be construed in any manner whatsoever as recommendations to enter into a market position either stock, option, futures contract, bonds, commodity or any other financial instrument at any time. We recommend that independent professional advice is obtained before you make any investment or trading decisions. By using this site you agree to this sites Terms of Use. From time to time we promote or endorse certain products / services that we believe are worthy of your time and attention. In return for that endorsement and only in the cases where you purchase directly though us may we be compensated by the producers of those products.