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Nadeem Walayat Financial Markets Analysiis and Trend Forecasts

Stock & Commodity Markets Analysis and Commentary

Stock-Markets / Financial Markets Aug 19, 2008 - 11:34 AM GMT

By: INO

Stock-Markets The STOCK INDEXES - Stock Futures Quotes Best Financial Markets Analysis Article
The September NASDAQ 100 was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline but remains above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1934.55. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought and are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1882.70 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If September extends the rally off July's low, the 75% retracement level of the June-July decline crossing at 1994.18 is the next upside targets. The September NASDAQ 100 was down 8.25. pts. at 1935.25 as of 5:51 AM CST. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 1977.25. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 1994.18. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1934.55. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1886.67. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by September NASDAQ 100 when the day session begins later this morning.


The September S&P 500 index was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.67 are needed to confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If September renews the rally off July's low, a test of the 50% retracement level of the May-July decline crossing at 1320.95 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Monday's high crossing at 1313.30. Second resistance is the 50% retracement level crossing at 1320.90. First support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 1275.67. Second support is the overnight low crossing at 1275.50. The September S&P 500 Index was down 3.90 pts. at 1278.20 as of 5:55 AM CST. Overnight action sets the stage for a lower opening by the September S&P 500 index when the day session begins later this morning.

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INTEREST RATES Interest Rate Quotes

September T-bonds were higher overnight as they extend Monday's rally above July's high crossing at 117-18. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If September extends the rally off July's low, April's high crossing at 118-27 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-25 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 118-06. Second resistance level is April's high crossing at 118-27. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 116-19. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 115-25. Overnight action sets the stage for September T-bonds to open 5/32's to 7/32's higher when the day session begins later this morning.

ENERGY MARKETS Energy Futures Quotes
September crude oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's breakout below the 50% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 116.37. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness near-term is possible. If September extends this summer's decline, the 62% retracement level crossing at 108.89 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.38 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.10. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 119.38. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 111.34. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 108.89.

September heating oil was lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range but remains above the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 303.67. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-
term. If September extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 278.59 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.91 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10- day moving average crossing at 313.01. Second resistance level is the 20-day moving average crossing at 330.91. First support is the 62% retracement level crossing at 303.57. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 278.59.

September unleaded gas was lower overnight as it extends Monday's decline below the 62% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 284.08. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the 75% retracement level crossing at 266.77 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.88 are needed to confirm that a short- term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 288.68. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 296.88. First support is the overnight low crossing at 279.09. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 266.77.

September Henry natural gas was lower overnight as it extends this summer's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends this summer's decline, last December's low crossing at 7.420 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.729 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 8.269. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.729. First support is the overnight low crossing at 7.792. Second support is last December's low crossing at 7.420.

CURRENCIES Currency Futures Quotes

The September Dollar was higher overnight as it extends last week's rally above the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 77.19. Stochastics and the RSI are overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-
term. If September extends the rally, the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008 decline crossing at 78.14 is the next upside target. Closes below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.29 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at 77.56. Second resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 78.14. First support is the 10- day moving average crossing at 76.29. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.83.

The September Euro was slightly higher due to light short covering overnight as it consolidates some of last week's decline but remains below the 75% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 147.055. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, the 87% retracement level of this year's rally crossing at 144.917 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.150 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 62% retracement level crossing at 149.312. Second resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 149.150. First support is the overnight low crossing at 146.090. Second support is the 87% retracement level crossing at 144.917.  

The September British Pound was lower overnight as it extends this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, weekly support crossing at 1.8280 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8905 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 1.8905. Second resistance is May's low crossing at 1.9196. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 1.8471. Second support is weekly support crossing at 1.8280. 

The September Swiss Franc was slightly higher overnight as it consolidates some of the decline off July's high. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends this month's decline, the 62% retracement level of the June-2007/March-2008-rally crossing at .9028 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at .9221 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at .9221. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9402. First support is the overnight low crossing at .9065. Second support is the 62% retracement level crossing at .9028.

The September Canadian Dollar was steady to slightly lower overnight as it extends last week's trading range. If September renews this month's decline, last August's low crossing at 93.00 then the 75% retracement level of the 2007-2008 rally crossing at .9279 are the next downside targets. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 95.86 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 94.18. Second resistance is Monday's high crossing at 94.79. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 93.14. Second support is last August's low crossing at 93.00.  

The September Japanese Yen was higher overnight due to light short covering as it consolidates some of this month's decline. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends the decline, last December's low crossing at .8982 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at .9206 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the overnight high crossing at .9133. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at .9206. First support is last Friday's low crossing at .9050. Second support is last December's low crossing at .8982.

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PRECIOUS METALS Precious Metals Futures Quotes
October gold was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally and remains below the 62% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 804.90. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 827.20 would confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If October extends this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level crossing at 755.90 is the next downside target. First resistance is the 10-day moving average crossing at 827.20. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 871.80. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 774.00. Second support is the 75% retracement level crossing at 755.90.

September silver was lower overnight as it consolidates below the 87% retracement level of the 2007-2008-rally crossing at 12.325. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are neutral to bearish hinting that additional weakness is possible near-term. If September extends the decline off July's high, the August-2007 low crossing at 12.080 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 14.517 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. First resistance is the 87% retracement level crossing at 13.235. Second resistance is the 75% retracement level crossing at 14.390. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 12.200. Second support is last August's low crossing at 12.080.

September copper was slightly higher overnight due to short covering as it consolidates above the 75% retracement level of the December-May rally crossing at 322.32. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but are turning bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 345.48 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If September renews the decline off July's high, February's low crossing at 319.50 is the next downside target. First resistance is last Thursday's high crossing at 343.40. Second resistance is the 20-day moving average crossing at 345.48. First support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 321.85. Second support is February's low crossing at 319.50.

FOOD & FIBER Food and Fiber Futures Quotes

September coffee posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. However, stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, March's low crossing at 13.08 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.684 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.

September cocoa posted an inside day with a higher opening on Monday as it consolidates some of this month's decline. The high-range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold but remain neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If September extends last week's decline, May's low crossing at 25.30 is the next downside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 27.52 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October sugar closed sharply higher on Monday and above the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.65. The high-range close set the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October renews last week's decline, the reaction low crossing at 12.14 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 14.00 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.

October cotton closed lower on Monday as it extends this month's decline. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that additional weakness is possible near-
term. If October extends this month's decline, monthly support crossing at 63.10 is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing at 72.09 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted.
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GRAINS Grain Futures Quotes

December corn was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally and remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Multiple closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 5.68 are needed to confirm that a pre-harvest low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the August 2007-July 2008 rally crossing at 4.80 1/2 is the next downside target. First resistance is Monday's high crossing at 5.79. Second resistance is the reaction high crossing at 6.24 3/4. First support is the 10-day moving average crossing at 5.45 1/2. Second support is last Tuesday's low crossing at 5.05

December wheat was lower overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. Stochastics and the RSI are turning neutral to bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. If December extends last week's rally, the reaction high crossing at 9.16 is the next upside target. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening when the day session opens later this morning. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.27 1/2 would temper the near-term friendly outlook in the market.  
December Kansas City Wheat closed up 30 3/4-cents at 9.15 3/4.

December Kansas City Wheat closed higher on Tuesday and is poised to renew this month's rally. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought and are turning neutral hinting that a short-term top might be near. If December extends this month's rally, the reaction high crossing at 9.85 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.55 1/2 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.
December Minneapolis wheat closed up 21 1/2-cents at 9.44.

December Minneapolis wheat closed higher on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. The mid-range close sets the stage for a steady opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are becoming overbought but remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If December extends this month's rally, gap resistance crossing at 10.13 is the next upside target. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 8.93 3/4 would confirm that a short-term top has been posted.  

SOYBEAN COMPLEX
November soybeans were lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidated some of Monday's rally but remains well above the 10-day moving average crossing at 12.38 3/4. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. If November extends last week's short covering rally, the 20-day moving average crossing at 13.02 3/4 is the next upside target. Closes above the 20-day moving average are needed to confirm that a pre-harvest low has been posted. If November renews this summer's decline, the 87% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 11.19 1/4 is the next downside target.

December soybean meal was lower due to light profit taking overnight as it consolidates some of Monday's rally. The low-range overnight close set the stage for a steady to lower opening when the day session begins later this morning. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signaling that sideways to higher prices are possible near-term. Closes above last week's high crossing at 357.80 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, the 75% retracement level of the April-July rally crossing at 309.00 is the next downside target.

December soybean oil was lower overnight due to profit taking while extending last week's trading range. Stochastics and the RSI are oversold and are neutral to bullish hinting that a short-term low might be in or is near. Closes above the 20-day moving average crossing at 55.43 are needed to confirm that a short-term low has been posted. If December renews this summer's decline, April's low crossing at 50.16 is the next downside target.

LIVESTOCK Livestock Futures Quotes

October hogs closed up $0.25 at $75.80.

October hogs posted an inside day with a higher close on Monday as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 10-day moving average crossing at 76.30. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish hinting that a short-term top might be in or is near. Closes below the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.98 are needed to confirm that a short-term top has been posted. If October renews this month's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 81.37 is the next upside target. First resistance is last Friday's high crossing at 78.75. Second resistance is weekly resistance crossing at 81.37. First support is last Friday's low crossing at 75.50. Second support is the 20-day moving average crossing at 74.98.

February bellies closed up $0.62 at $98.15.

February bellies closed higher on Monday due to short covering as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline. Today's high-
range close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI have turned bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. Closes below last Tuesday's gap crossing at 96.27 would confirm that a short-
term top has been posted. If February renews last week's rally, weekly resistance crossing at 109.45 is the next upside target.
October cattle closed up $0.10 at 105.95.

October cattle closed higher due to light short covering as it consolidated some of last Friday's decline but remains below the 20-day moving average crossing at 106.49. The low-range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI are neutral to bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends last week's decline, July's low crossing at 103.80 is the next downside target. Closes above last Thursday's high crossing at 108.00 would temper the near-term bearish outlook in the market.
October feeder cattle closed down $1.02 at $113.50.

October Feeder cattle closed sharply lower on Monday due to strength in grains while extending this month's decline. The low-
range close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Tuesday. Stochastics and the RSI remain bearish signaling that sideways to lower prices are possible near-term. If October extends this month's decline, July's low crossing at 112.20 is the next downside target. Closes above the 10-day moving average crossing at 115.577 would signal that a short-term low has been posted.

By INO.com

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