Best of the Week
Most Popular
1. TESLA! Cathy Wood ARK Funds Bubble BURSTS! - 12th May 21
2.Stock Market Entering Early Summer Correction Trend Forecast - 10th May 21
3.GOLD GDX, HUI Stocks - Will Paradise Turn into a Dystopia? - 11th May 21
4.Crypto Bubble Bursts! Nicehash Suspends Coinbase Withdrawals, Bitcoin, Ethereum Bear Market Begins - 16th May 21
5.Crypto Bubble BURSTS! BTC, ETH, XRP CRASH! NiceHash Seizes Funds on Account Halting ALL Withdrawals! - 19th May 21
6.Cathy Wood Ark Invest Funds Bubble BURSTS! ARKK, ARKG, Tesla Entering Severe Bear Market - 13th May 21
7.Stock Market - Should You Be In Cash Right Now? - 17th May 21
8.Gold to Benefit from Mounting US Debt Pile - 14th May 21
9.Coronavius Covid-19 in Italy in August 2019! - 13th May 21
10.How to Invest in HIGH RISK Tech Stocks for 2021 and Beyond - Part 2 of 2 - 18th May 21
Last 7 days
Reverse REPO Market Brewing Financial Crisis Black Swan Danger - 29th Jul 21
Next Time You See "4 Times as Many Stock Market Bulls as There Are Bears," Remember This - 29th Jul 21
USDX: More Sideways Trading Ahead? - 29th Jul 21
WEALTH INEQUALITY WASN'T BY HAPPENSTANCE! - 29th Jul 21
Waiting On Silver - 29th Jul 21
Showdown: Paper vs. Physical Markets - 29th Jul 21
New set of Priorities needed for Unstoppable Global Warming - 29th Jul 21
The US Dollar is the Driver of the Gold & Silver Sectors - 28th Jul 21
Fed: Murderer of Markets and the Middle Class - 28th Jul 21
Gold And Silver – Which Will Have An Explosive Price Rally And Which Will Have A Sustained One? - 28th Jul 21
I Guess The Stock Market Does Not Fear Covid - So Should You? - 28th Jul 21
Eight Do’s and Don’ts For Options Traders - 28th Jul 21
Chasing Value in Unloved by Markets Small Cap Biotech Stocks for the Long-run - 27th Jul 21
Inflation Pressures Persist Despite Biden Propaganda - 27th Jul 21
Gold Investors Wavering - 27th Jul 21
Bogdance - How Binance Scams Futures Traders With Fake Bitcoin Prices to Run Limits and Margin Calls - 27th Jul 21
SPX Going for the Major Stock Market Top? - 27th Jul 21
What Is HND and How It Will Help Your Career Growth? - 27th Jul 21
5 Mobile Apps Day Traders Should Know About - 27th Jul 21
Global Stock Market Investing: Here's the Message of Consumer "Overconfidence" - 25th Jul 21
Gold’s Behavior in Various Parallel Inflation Universes - 25th Jul 21
Indian Delta Variant INFECTED! How infectious, Deadly, Do Vaccines Work? Avoid the PCR Test? - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Stock to Flow Model to Infinity and Beyond Price Forecasts - 25th Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - GOOGLE! - 24th Jul 21
Stock Market Stalling Signs? Taking a Look Under the Hood of US Equities - 24th Jul 21
Biden’s Dangerous Inflation Denials - 24th Jul 21
How does CFD trading work - 24th Jul 21
Junior Gold Miners: New Yearly Lows! Will We See a Further Drop? - 23rd Jul 21
Best Forex Strategy for Consistent Profits - 23rd Jul 21
Popular Forex Brokers That You Might Want to Check Out - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Black Swan - Will Crypto Currencies Get Banned? - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price Enters Stage #4 Excess Phase Peak Breakdown – Where To Next? - 22nd Jul 21
Powell Gave Congress Dovish Signs. Will It Help Gold Price? - 22nd Jul 21
What’s Next For Gold Is Always About The US Dollar - 22nd Jul 21
URGENT! ALL Windows 10 Users Must Do this NOW! Windows Image Backup Before it is Too Late! - 22nd Jul 21
Bitcoin Price CRASH, How to SELL BTC at $40k! Real Analysis vs Shill Coin Pumper's and Clueless Newbs - 21st Jul 21
Emotional Stock Traders React To Recent Market Rotation – Are You Ready For What’s Next? - 21st Jul 21
Killing Driveway Weeds FAST with a Pressure Washer - 8 months Later - Did it work?- Block Paving Weeds - 21st Jul 21
Post-Covid Stimulus Payouts & The US Fed Push Global Investors Deeper Into US Value Bubble - 21st Jul 21
What is Social Trading - 21st Jul 21
Would Transparency Help Crypto? - 21st Jul 21
AI Predicts US Tech Stocks Price Valuations Three Years Ahead (ASVF) - 20th Jul 21
Gold Asks: Has Inflation Already Peaked? - 20th Jul 21
FREE PASS to Analysis and Trend forecasts of 50+ Global Markets by Elliott Wave International - 20th Jul 21
Nissan to Create 1000s of jobs with electric vehicle investment in UK - 20th Jul 21

Market Oracle FREE Newsletter

How to Protect your Wealth by Investing in AI Tech Stocks

Why Jobs Growth No Longer Induces Wage Growth in America

Economics / Economic Theory Jul 17, 2017 - 05:06 AM GMT

By: Dan_Steinbock

Economics Or The Eclipse of the Phillips Curve in America
While the Fed’s continued tightening may suppress growth in emerging economies, US labor market may not be as strong as recent reports suggest.

US experienced strong job growth in June, when the economy created 222,000 net new jobs, which exceeded analyst expectations. At the Federal Reserve, the jobs report boosted confidence US economy is on the track for new rate hikes in the fall.


As the unemployment rate is barely 4.4%, the Fed expects that the US economy can cope with further tightening. Yet, despite the solid performance, not everything is in place for sustained job growth.

Temporal and structural constraints

In June, some jobs were fueled by temporary drivers. The June gain of 35,000 jobs in state and local government was preceded by a loss of 8,000 jobs in the sector in May. Other June gains reflect school districts’ new hires for the fall. Moreover, the retail sector added over 8,000 net new jobs; but only after losing almost 80,000 jobs between February and May, as a result of the ongoing shift to online retailing.

Much job growth was due to hiring in healthcare, social assistance and local governments, which are coping with America’s aging and ailing population.

Usually, when unemployment is low, employers tend to increase wages to attract new workers and keep existing ones. That’s not the case today. Instead, some of the biggest job gains are taking place in lower-wage sectors, such as healthcare and temporary workers, which keeps wage growth down.

US recovery also suffers from structural constraints. The unemployment rate is relatively lowest among whites (3.8%) and Asians (3.6%), higher among Hispanics (4.8%), twice as high for blacks (7.1%) and far higher for youths (13.3%).

Moreover, the labor force participation rate – the number of people who are employed or actively looking for work – peaked at 67% in the early 2000s, but is less than 63% today; where it used to be in the mid-1970s.

Unlike labor force participation rate, the employment-population ratio is not as affected by seasonal variations or short-term fluctuation. In the US, it used to be almost 75% in the early 2000s; but today it is barely 60% as fewer young Americans are looking for work and baby boomers are retiring.

End of Phillips curve – and Yellen

The current Fed believes in the so-called Phillips curve; a historically inverse relationship between rates of unemployment and corresponding rates of inflation. In this view, decreased unemployment goes hand in hand with higher rates of inflation.

Consequently, as US unemployment rate is now only 4.4%, that should correlate with progressively rising inflation. And yet, the reality seems to be precisely the reverse. Until early 2017, unemployment rate did steadily decrease, while hourly earnings climbed close to 2.9%. But in the past few months, unemployment rate has remained around 4.4%, whereas hourly earnings have decreased to 2.4%.

Historically, a short-run tradeoff between unemployment and inflation reflected the postwar Keynesian era when the rates climbed from 2% in the 1950s peaking at 20% in early 80s. In the past three decades, the rates have shrunk to zero. Yet, even though job growth is no longer accompanied with wage growth, Yellen continues to rely on the Phillips curve to guide monetary policy.

Instead of new hikes in the fall, the Fed would need a rethink. If the theory associated with the current policy path is untenable, it cannot provide appropriate guidance. In fact, new data is likely to reflect soft inflation and lingering wage growth. As a result, spring 2018 is likely to witness not just the removal of the Phillips curve from its protruding seat at the Fed, but the replacement of Yellen and Fischer at top.

In international view, a rethink is also vital. A single-minded focus on rate hikes that are likely to result in much collateral damage in emerging markets is dangerous when those emerging economies account for most of global growth prospects.

Dr. Dan Steinbock is an internationally recognised expert of the nascent multipolar world. He is the CEO of Difference Group and has served as Research Director at the India, China and America Institute (USA) and visiting fellow at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies (China) and the EU Centre (Singapore). For more, see www.differencegroup.net   

© 2017 Copyright Dan Steinbock - All Rights Reserved

Disclaimer: The above is a matter of opinion provided for general information purposes only and is not intended as investment advice. Information and analysis above are derived from sources and utilising methods believed to be reliable, but we cannot accept responsibility for any losses you may incur as a result of this analysis. Individuals should consult with their personal financial advisors.


© 2005-2019 http://www.MarketOracle.co.uk - The Market Oracle is a FREE Daily Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting online publication.


Post Comment

Only logged in users are allowed to post comments. Register/ Log in